Jibba's Week 3 NFL

Jibba · #1 09-21-2006, 09:25 AM

First time doing this so don't feel bad telling me how horrible my picks are. On the season (NFL) I am 5-3 (7-4-1 including NCAA) and am up $33.36 including juice (up $58.36 including NCAA).

Chi -3 @ Minn. Given, the Bears have not beaten anyone good yet ... but they've looked extremely solid. I don't particularly like the Vikes' offense, and against this defense I really don't see them doing anything at all. Add to this Minnesota's loss of 4 defensive players and I think that the Bears' offense might even look as good as they did last week, even though we all know they're not that good.

Atl -3 @ NO. I know a lot of people are jumping on the NO bandwagon, but I'm not buying it. I'm also not buying the home field thing. Maybe I'm wrong, but I've never known NO to be a tough place to play in for visiting opponents and I just don't see it coming through for them. Atlanta is going to run all over the Saints and win by 10 IMO.

Philly -6 @ SF. I agree with those who think the line would be much higher if not for Philly's implosion Sunday. While they're not a great team, they're far and away better than SF and I think they're going to pull out all the stops to get their season back on track in a game they should win handily. Westbrook is going to run all over SF's D and I think McNabb should have a good day against a secondary that's allowed 6 TDs already.

NYJ +6 @ Buffalo. I've seen both of these teams so far (against the Pats) and I don't think the Bills are nearly as ready for prime time as some would like to think. The Jets showed me last week that they do not give up. And I'm back on board in thinking Pennington will be a QB teams have to worry about as long as his WRs can give him opportunities. I can't go as far as say I think the Jets will win SU, but at very least I think this will be a hard-fought divisional game decided by a FG.

Because of a mixup with the BetWWTS promo, I was given a free 2 team parlay to win $50, so I'll post that here as well.

Balt -6.5 @ Clev & Chi -3 @ Minn. I'm not going to lie ... I'm a little nervous with all my money riding on road favorites (other than the Jets ... a road dog). I've already given my unimpressive views on the Bears, and I think Baltimore is self-explanatory.

SilverLining1 · #2 09-21-2006, 09:56 AM

I'm adding Seattle v. Giants, taking Seattle to win by more than 3. Giants look like a [censored] mess and are overrated, Seattle has played nowhere near their potential yet. Hassleback is due for a big game; Giants defense on a run hasn't been impressive so far.

zenfurni · #3 09-21-2006, 10:05 AM

I agree with your reasoning on most of these games... the lines seem to be a little off, even factoring in home field advantage. For future reference, when you post your picks, you should list them in "units" as opposed to the dollar value.

The pick I'm shaky about is the Phi@SF, just because I don't know what the line SHOULD be... for the other games, I think Chi (-6) would be good and Atl (-5.5) would be good.
As for Phi@SF, (-7) sounds about right, so it's not as far off.

Performify · #4 09-21-2006, 10:17 AM

[ QUOTE ]
when you post your picks, you should list them in "units" as opposed to the dollar value.

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Units are usually the standard, but you're free to use dollar values. but you should put how much (in terms of units or dollars) you're risking on each game. if you're just doing one unit / ten dollar / whatever on each game, just say that somewhere.

Welcome, and best of luck on your picks this week. [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

Jibba · #5 09-21-2006, 11:35 AM

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I'm adding Seattle v. Giants, taking Seattle to win by more than 3. Giants look like a [censored] mess and are overrated, Seattle has played nowhere near their potential yet. Hassleback is due for a big game; Giants defense on a run hasn't been impressive so far.

[/ QUOTE ]

I tend to agree with you hear. I am very high on Seattle but I haven't seen anything yet which makes me think they will live up to expectations. They are playing the Giants, but then again, that's the line of thinking I used when they played the Lions.

Jibba · #6 09-21-2006, 11:38 AM

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Welcome, and best of luck on your picks this week. [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

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Thank you. Double posted accidently so I figured I'd use the space to thank you for the great forum. [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

Wes Mantooth · #7 09-21-2006, 12:00 PM

Solid picks, I agree with almost all your reasons backing them up. Good insight.

Punker · #8 09-21-2006, 12:16 PM

Chi vs Min: I don't agree - Chicago has handily beaten two teams that they should handily beat this year, and Minnesota has gutted out two tough wins over teams they would have been expected to lose to. At this point, Chicago is the team that has to prove themselves to me, not Minnesota.

Atl vs NO: totally agree. I believe this game will be the start of a lengthy losing streak for NO.

Philly vs SF: Diffcult one to call. I think Philly is still gelling after last year's implosion, and the loss of Kearse will be big on them. I think SF is coming in on a bit of a high and I think this game will be close.

NYJ at Buffalo: agree

Wes Mantooth · #9 09-21-2006, 12:34 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Philly vs SF: Diffcult one to call. I think Philly is still gelling after last year's implosion, and the loss of Kearse will be big on them. I think SF is coming in on a bit of a high and I think this game will be close.

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Philly's D-line is still very solid even without Kearse. Though Eagles had a difficult loss this past weekend, I think their offense is too much for the 49ers too handle. In addition, just like they contained Tiki Barder to less then 60 yards rushing, Philly's defense should contain Gore as well.

SomethingClever · #10 09-21-2006, 12:35 PM

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Atl -3 @ NO. I know a lot of people are jumping on the NO bandwagon, but I'm not buying it. I'm also not buying the home field thing. Maybe I'm wrong, but I've never known NO to be a tough place to play in for visiting opponents and I just don't see it coming through for them. Atlanta is going to run all over the Saints and win by 10 IMO.

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I've bet on NO the first two weeks of the season, but I think I'll be staying away from either side on this one.

I think the "homecoming" factor is too much of a wild card. ATL is the better team, no doubt, but this is the first time the Super Dome has been opened since Katrina. I expect there will be a lot of emotion, and NO will be pretty fired up. Plus their confidence has to be high already, starting 2-0 when people didn't expect much out of them.

I don't feel strongly enough about this to necessarily bet on NO, but it's enough to make me look for a better pick.