I'm so confused!

[fnurt]

Level 1 of a WCOOP satellite. No read on villain.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t20 (8 handed) internettexasholdem.com

BB (t1470)
Hero (t1750)
UTG+1 (t2170)
MP1 (t1450)
MP2 (t1360)
CO (t1460)
Button (t1160)
SB (t2680)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t60</font>, <font color="#666666">5 folds</font>, SB calls t50, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>.

Flop: (t140) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets t90</font>, SB calls t90.

Turn: (t320) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets t260</font>, Hero calls t260.

River: (t840) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets t1340</font>, Hero...


What the heck is going on here? Comments on all streets are welcome.

[FortunaMaximus]

Looks like TPTK or two pair by turn and he panicked when you counterfeited him. Consistent, especially the overbet.

If you walked into a OESD or FH, which is reasonable till river for one but not the other...

I'm not that bothered by the overbet. Call and puke.

[J.A.K.]

[ QUOTE ]
Looks like TPTK or two pair by turn and he panicked when you counterfeited him. Consistent, especially the overbet.

If you walked into a OESD or FH, which is reasonable till river for one but not the other...

I'm not that bothered by the overbet. Call and puke.

[/ QUOTE ]

Can you see this as a safe flop for a slow played set? If so could the turn be a value bet?

fnurt, do you call 500 on the river?

I fold.

[fnurt]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Looks like TPTK or two pair by turn and he panicked when you counterfeited him. Consistent, especially the overbet.

If you walked into a OESD or FH, which is reasonable till river for one but not the other...

I'm not that bothered by the overbet. Call and puke.

[/ QUOTE ]

Can you see this as a safe flop for a slow played set? If so could the turn be a value bet?

fnurt, do you call 500 on the river?

I fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

I definitely call 500 on the river. One of the reasons I called the turn was that, if I'm ahead, it's about the only way I make more money. But I confess the push stunned me a little.

[2Fast]

[ QUOTE ]
Looks like TPTK or two pair by turn and he panicked when you counterfeited him. Consistent, especially the overbet.

If you walked into a OESD or FH, which is reasonable till river for one but not the other...

I'm not that bothered by the overbet. Call and puke.

[/ QUOTE ]

yeah, I call, but in lower stakes this could be excited overbet from nut straight donk

[FortunaMaximus]

Depends on your definition of lower stakes, I guess.

[Sherman]

I feel like its 66 or 99 fairly often here. I don't see any problem with slowplaying on this board (with a set) if you think your opponent probably has a couple of high cards (AK, AQ).

His big turn bet looks like he is worried about some kinda of weird draw w/JT or something. But once you call it, he practically has to put on on a big pair or a weird missed draw on the river. The big bet is a great way to make money when you have the overpair.

[Coz]

This hand smells like a set to me as well, however, it is also very likley that villian could have a smaller overpair like 1010, JJ, or QQ.

I think the preflop and flop play is good. As far as the turn goes I think it comes down to your read. I am currently reading HOH so I will try to analyze this hand as he suggests.

% of bluffing-10%
% of having overpair to BOARD(underpair to kings)=45-50%. Why, because I think it is more likley for him to bet like this with an overpair, plus mathmatically I think it is more likly that he has an overpair than a set.

However, at this level you have to consider what hands he would bet so strongly at you with.

So...
% of having 57o=15-20% He was in small blind, if his hand is suited he may think that he is not looking to bad if you are raising with overcards and you miss the flop. Plus he checked the flop and bet strongly on the turn.
% of having flopped a set=30-35%. He was in small blind, checked the flop maybe as part of a trap and made a nice sized bet on the turn.
Turn analysis! Because I think you need to decide what to do on this street not the river, you either re-raise or fold.
He holds a lower pair-45%x92%=41% chance of wining
He holds a set-30%xaround10%=3%
He holds 57o-15%x0%=0%
He is bluffing-10%x97%=9.7%
Pot odds=2.3-1.
I forgot to include if he had Aces, however, I think probability wise this is unlikly and apologize but don't feel like doing the calculation right now. Also forgot to include whether he flopped top pair, but I think that this is likley and furthers my point about why you should re-raise the turn, not only do you not give him the chance to draw but you have Fold Equity.

I think you should re-raise the turn here, please CORRECT me if I am wrong, its late and I have been doing a lot of hw today.

Comments on this analysis as well as his hand would be greatly appreciated!

[FortunaMaximus]

Good analysis. Thing is, for me, I've literally seen so many hands that the probabilities are entrenched and initutive.

And I realize I don't make sense sometimes and have to go farther in my explanation.

For me, the betting patterns only narrow hands so far, and if I don't include some potential hands in my analysis, it's because I discard them on probability reasons. There's your 10%-20%. And human opponents do random things.

By river, you have a 2 pair board overpair, but it's a weakish average hand considering board texture. Plenty of hands that beat you might overbet the river. Plenty that don't WILL overbet the river or check-fold. Those in-betweens are almost automatic calls anyway.

So go back, think through the streets, see what's consistent. Add an element of deception by villain. And I get the range I came up with. I puke because I'm simply beat here some of the time. The times I'm not, I've nearly doubled my equity in a satellite. And satelittes are cost-effective. so if I'm right more often than I'm wrong... Them's the breaks, and you do get used to that.

Conclusion: The counterfeit probabilities by river sway me towards calling generally.

[Pat Southern]

You are ahead here barely ever, fold.