50NL: bottom set 200BB deep facing heat

The White Rabbit · #1 09-20-2006, 05:56 PM

Villain is 52/30 after 55 hands, don't know where to find AF in PT. No reads. I'm probably running around my usual 17/14.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

saw flop|saw showdown

MP ($19)
Button ($71.60)
Hero ($101.35)
BB ($71.25)
UTG ($149.43)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. Hero posts a blind of $0.25.
UTG raises to $2, 1 fold, Button calls $2, Hero (poster) calls $1.75, 1 fold.

Flop: ($6.50) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $3, Button folds, Hero raises to $12, UTG raises to $21, Hero calls $9.

Turn: ($48.50) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $20, Hero ?

Comments on all streets appreciated.

aces_dad · #2 09-20-2006, 05:59 PM

Was the flop call to set up a turn c/r?

I'd probably call turn and c/c non K river as well.

xwillience · #3 09-20-2006, 06:04 PM

i lead that flop.

as for the rest. HMMM. I would have liked a bet/call turn c/c river line better.

BadMongo · #4 09-20-2006, 06:11 PM

With 3 players seeing the flop I'd proably lead out. Given how you played it, I'd c/r the turn all-in. You can't really put villain on a straight given the flop action, so you're only behind JJ and QQ. Against a 52/30 villain, I wanna get my money in as fast as possible with this hand. He obviously likes his hand, so I'd just shove it in.

Shaddux · #5 09-20-2006, 07:29 PM

I definitely lead the flop with three players in.
I lead the turn as well.

The White Rabbit · #6 09-20-2006, 08:13 PM

I don't like a flop lead because of our relative position to the preflop raiser. We want to squeeze button with a c/r.

To those advocating a turn lead, why not 4-bet the flop?

[ QUOTE ]

Was the flop call to set up a turn c/r?

[/ QUOTE ]
Yes. But on the other hand, we're 200BB deep, do we always go broke with bottom set on a not-that dangerous board?

CoachDirty · #7 09-20-2006, 08:26 PM

Isn't this AA, KK or even AQ more often then it is QQ or JJ? All five of these hands will most likely go to the felt with you and there are more combo's of hands you beat than you don't. All in.

holdme · #8 09-20-2006, 08:28 PM

Against a guy this laggro, I'd probably play for stacks each time. I know you don't have a read on his postflop play, but it could be qj, kt type hands as well.

big dummy · #9 09-20-2006, 08:38 PM

On the flop, villian is screaming for a call (only 1/2 pot cbet + minraise) so it's probably a made hand here. I'd put the range at QQ, JJ (which have you beat) plus KK, AA, QJ (which you beat)

With 3Qs and Js in the deck there only 3 ways each to make QQ or JJ. There are are 9 ways to make QJ and and 6 ways each for KK and AA. That's 6 hands that beat you and 21 that you beat. The betting and player read would need to tell you that QQ/JJ is at least 3.5 times more likely than the rest of the range. I just don't see it here.

Villian loves his hand. Push the turn. If it's set over set, go complain to BBV.

Peeker643 · #10 09-20-2006, 08:46 PM

I'm pushing here. I lose set over set and it's the cost of doing business. If I'm facing AK (and based on villain's re-raise I'm not) then I'm still 3-1 to boat and getting better than that to play. I'm thinking overpair, two pair or TPTK with gut-shot the majority of time against this type player.