A7o Blind Steal

Gazzbut · #1 09-20-2006, 03:54 PM

Just sat down. No reads on villian.

Preflop: Hero is Button with 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
6 folds, Hero raises, 1 folds, BB 3-bets, Hero calls.

Flop: (6.50 SB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB bets, Hero raises, BB calls.

Turn: (5.25 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB bets, Hero calls.

River: (7.25 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB bets, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 9.25 BB.

Darrone · #2 09-20-2006, 04:03 PM

looks pretty standard, tho i often have blind steal troubles. He seems to have played it like a mid pp, 8's or 9's. i dont think theres equity in raising after the turn donk (especially since a 3 bet would not be good), so id just call down.

Gazzbut · #3 09-20-2006, 04:10 PM

I thought it was standard too but I just wanted to check. Blind steal / Defence often leave me feeling a bit flummoxed!

I suppose this hand would be alot easier to play with a read.

Bob T. · #4 09-20-2006, 04:58 PM

Looks reasonable to me.

alul · #5 09-20-2006, 05:04 PM

I'm folding to the turn donk without reads. You are behind here too often. With just overcards he most probably checks the turn after you raised the flop.

Darrone · #6 09-20-2006, 05:06 PM

an overpair on the board, and middle pair, in a blind steal situation, your assuming your beat by a donk? i dont exactly buy that rationale. id think him more likely to have absolutely nothing than a 10. because he reraised preflop from the big, and then called the flop, but donked into us on the turn, Id very rarely see this play from a 10. (of course, this is without having seen the river) and assuming he has the pocker overpair, and just called the flop (when he most likely had the best) but raised the turn(when a pocker overpair would be weaker) seems quite unlikely

alul · #7 09-20-2006, 05:16 PM

[ QUOTE ]
an overpair on the board, and middle pair, in a blind steal situation, your assuming your beat by a donk? i dont exactly buy that rationale. id think him more likely to have absolutely nothing than a 10. because he reraised preflop from the big, and then called the flop, but donked into us on the turn, Id very rarely see this play from a 10. (of course, this is without having seen the river) and assuming he has the pocker overpair, and just called the flop (when he most likely had the best) but raised the turn(when a pocker overpair would be weaker) seems quite unlikely

[/ QUOTE ]

So what hand do you put him on? AK? KQ? What kind of hand he can play this way (assuming he is a reasonable player)?

Gazzbut · #8 09-20-2006, 06:35 PM

[ QUOTE ]

So what hand do you put him on? AK? KQ? What kind of hand he can play this way (assuming he is a reasonable player)?

[/ QUOTE ]

Why are you assuming he is a reasonable player?

With a read I may have folded to the turn donk but even against a reasonable player the turn donk does not mean he has the goods in a blind defence situation.

Are you putting him on a T here because of the donk?

alul · #9 09-20-2006, 06:52 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

So what hand do you put him on? AK? KQ? What kind of hand he can play this way (assuming he is a reasonable player)?

[/ QUOTE ]

Why are you assuming he is a reasonable player?

With a read I may have folded to the turn donk but even against a reasonable player the turn donk does not mean he has the goods in a blind defence situation.

Are you putting him on a T here because of the donk?

[/ QUOTE ]

1. Because assuming that unknown player is unreasonable until proven otherwise is wrong IMO.
2. I'm not putting him on exactly T. I just think that most of the people will not bluff on this drawless board. You are going to put 2 BB to win 7. And I don't think your pair of 7s is good here 30% of the time to make it profitable.

Gazzbut · #10 09-21-2006, 03:48 AM

Im not assuming that he is unreasonable, I am just factoring in the possibility that he is. Ignoring this possibility is wrong in my opinion.

Given that we have no idea how villian plays and given that this is a blind defence situation where he could be playing two overcards strongly and using the paired board as a scare card I think we could be good here more than the 22% (not 30%) we need to make this line profitable.