QJs 3/6 flop play

lasa · #1 09-20-2006, 08:19 AM

CO and button both tight PF, not enough hands to say anything else.
UTG+1 and UTG+2 both very loose PF. Passive and like to stick around with their draws.

Most pots multiway.

PokerRoom 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
Hero calls, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, 2 folds, MP3 calls, CO calls, Button raises, 2 folds, Hero calls, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, MP3 calls, CO calls.

Flop: (13.50 SB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (6 players)
Hero checks, UTG+1 checks, UTG+2 checks, MP3 checks, CO bets, Button raises, Hero ?

Bill C · #2 09-20-2006, 08:32 AM

Call getting 8/1 and see the turn. C/F UI.
bc

SixForty · #3 09-20-2006, 12:44 PM

Tough spot that you're in. Getting 8.25 to 1 odds here, you need between 5 and 6 outs to call correctly. Let's take a look at how many outs you do have.

4 tens will give you a straight. With no 2 flush on the board, a straight should win the pot most of the time. However, I think those 4 outs need to be devalued a bit, since it's a one card staight and you could find yourself chopping with another Q often enough. Plus, there's the slim chance that you hit and still lose to AQ, a lone A when a Q hits the river to counterfeit you, or a flopped set that fills up on the river (I admit, only the set is a likely enough scenario to significantly devalue your outs, I'm just showing all possibilities here) So in the long run, I'm not sure if I'd count the Tens as more than 3 outs at most.

3 Queens will give two pair, but it will also put 4 to a straight on the board. And two pair may still be behind to a set, or lose to a bigger two pair in the end. I don't think I'd count the 3 Queens as more than 1 out total.

2 Jacks will give you trips, which could well be a strong hand here. It only really hurts you against a set, which now filled up, or a straight already, but you then have full house outs on the river. I think the Jacks can be classed as a good solid 1.5 outs at least here.

Toss in 1.5 outs for the backdoor flush, and that brings us to a total of somewhere around 7 outs total, more than enough for what you need.

You need to also take into account implied odds, since with this kind of action and the hands that are out there, you should rate to get paid off by some. (If you make a straight or backdoor a flush, then sets, an overpair or top pair is likely to pay off at least some along the way) But there's also reverse implied odds of when you make a big hand and still lose, since its really tough to lay it down anywhere if you hit a J or T on the turn. In a hand like this, I tend to simply say that implied and reverse implied odds cancel each other out here. (I don't know mathematically if they actually do, but it's probably close enough and it's the simple solution! [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] )

The only other thing to think about is whether or not CO will 3-bet often here. If he does, then it's giving you even worse than the 8.25 to 1 odds, and should make you want to lean towards folding. But since you said UTG+1 and UTG+2 like to chase draws, you'll probably get one or both of them to call as well, padding the pot to make up for the times when CO does 3-bet here.

All in all, when it gets right down to it - I think you are probably right on the fence of a proftiable call. I think call or fold are both viable options here, and I wouldn't be upset either way.

Bob T. · #4 09-20-2006, 12:52 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Button raises, Hero ?

[/ QUOTE ]

Coldcalls, hoping to get more calls from the loose guys to his left, and prays for the ten of diamonds to fall on the turn.

W. Deranged · #5 09-20-2006, 12:53 PM

I think, even when we factor in the odds of getting reraised, we're going to be getting around 7-1 overall on this flop. That's enough to make me want to see the turn with gutshot+pair+bdfd.

fishyak · #6 09-20-2006, 01:50 PM

An interesting flop question (for a change). To cold call or not to cold call. Some good territory has been covered by other responders. But no one so far has talked about putting Button on a range of hands. From the PF raise, I think you need to consider for moment what Button is likely to hold. IMO, at best you are behind, and, at worst WAY behind.

Your hope for a 3rd jack could turn into real trouble if Button raised off of KK, one of his probable holdings. So while you have lots of outs to good hands, this hand is very dangerous. Good cards for you could also fill out your opponents hands. Your cleanest path to victory is your long shot runner-runner flush draw. If you get 3 bet on the way back around, particularly from CO, does someone have QT and have they flopped you to death already?

With my fears in print, I agree with the others that the odds are there to cold call and try to see the next card. But I check the turn on literally any card (I never check blind, but mentally I have one this one.) and I fold to any bet unimproved. But if the card Gods favor me with a T of diamonds...hope springs eternal.

_TKO_ · #7 09-20-2006, 09:36 PM

In addition to the good points others have already made, I think 3-betting is spewing. You probably don't have the best hand, you can't get a free card, and although you may free up some cards, I don't think you will do so often enough to make up for the times you lose or split UI. Plus, there's the risk of a cap.