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#1
09-19-2006, 01:21 AM
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NFL Week 3
Ok, this is the first week I've posted here (or anywhere else), and have only been reading this forum for a little while. Week 2 I bet 44 units for +14 units (I took week 1 off). I realize betting that many units a week is bad from reading the other threads, but I've been doing this since the beginning of last season and have posted consistent profit, so I guess I'll keep going with it until I start losing. I really would like people to criticize my picks a lot and tell me what I might be doing wrong, so here goes...
These are early bets, I will add more as the week progresses, all bets are made on pinnacle: falcons -4.5 +134 4u falcons -3 +100 4u jets +6 -108 1u jets/bills o34.5 -105 2u jets ML +245 1u jags/colts u47 -109 1u ravens -6.5 -102 2u raven/browns o33 -105 1u ravens ML -280 2u giants +3.5 +102 1u giants/hawks o45 -105 1u eagles -6 -105 1u broncos +6.5 +105 1u broncos/pats u39 -102 1u broncos ML +276 1u panthers -3 -102 2u skins ML -203 1u So far I've bet 27 units. As the week progresses normally I add more to the games I like, so some games will start to accumulate more units, but I jumped on the falcons game as soon as I saw it cause I figured the line would move against me. Like I said, criticize away, I would love to read what you guys think and I will try and defend my picks. 
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#2
09-19-2006, 02:35 AM
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Re: NFL Week 3
Hey - i'm not gonna critique, i'm just curious what youre logic is on the giants/hawks and dever/indy games are and what you expect
i'm one of those that likes the hawks but i'm not betting ATM because the giants are one of those pandora's box teams
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#3
09-19-2006, 11:20 AM
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Re: NFL Week 3
well for the giants hawks game, eli had a great game last week against the eagles, even though it was close. That was with an ineffective tiki barber, though seattle's rush defense is killer, he should serve as a good threat. The giants seem to do well against anyone they play, keeping the game very close against the colts until that damn fumble to barber that ruined it. Also, shaun alexander without steve hutchinson there will not be nearly as effective as he was last season. The giants d is better than the cards, which should help keep the game a little close, but I feel like this will be a high scoring game where the giants take it.
denver isn't playing indy, but i went under on the indy/jags game because it seems whenever two good offenses play two good defenses, its almost always an under, and after the jags defensive performance last night i'm very happy with that bet. as long as they can keep the colts somewhat contained, theres no way that score is hitting 47.
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#4
09-19-2006, 03:33 PM
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Re: NFL Week 3
Response to your Seattle comments. I follow Sea very closely, and 2 things I think are undervalued.
1) Home field advantage. The acoustics at Quest field are deafening for visiting teams. Look at Seattle's home record; it's not an accident. NYG will have trouble with false starts just as they did last year. 2) The Sea "D" is vastly improved. Hamlin back, Boulware improved, Herndon very much improved, Truffant OK, Darby and Tubbs stuff the run, Bernard a sack specialist, Wistrom healthy whereas last year he played with an injury, Fisher looks faster than last year, #2 pick Tapp excellent coming off the corner, #1 pick Jenning improves the nickle coverage, Tatupu superb leader, just keeps getting better, Smith improved over an above-average rookie year and Peterson a huge upgrade over Lewis/Sharper from last season. Barring injuries, statwise this will be a top 7 defense at year end. Seattle 24 Giants 16
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#6
09-19-2006, 04:02 PM
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Re: NFL Week 3
falcons at -3 was a play I liked in a thread I started the other day, some people agreed with me some disagreed. I really like that pick, I think atlanta wins that game often enough to overcome laying points on the road. The combined record of atlanta's opponents from last year in week 1 and 2: 22-10. Combined record from last year of NO opponents from week 1 and 2: 10-22. Last year is not this year, but still, how does NO winning a shoot out at Green Bay and beating the Browns gain them increased status? Atlanta had 306 rushing yards in week two (I believe 258 week one)! That's almost as many yards as Drew Brees had passing (350). Atlanta has yet to concede a touchdown this season, their defense is absolutely nasty. Their running game keeps the defense fresh and the opponents offense off of the field. I don't believe the reggie bush hype, he's a great player but not enough. Nothing is ever close to being a lock in the NFL, but I see significant value in that pick.
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#8
09-19-2006, 08:49 PM
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Re: NFL Week 3
Things in bold represent changes
falcons -4.5 +134 4u falcons -3 +100 4u jets +6 -108 1u jets/bills o34.5 -105 2u jets ML +245 1u jags/colts u47 -109 1u ravens -6.5 -102 2u ravens -6.5 -103 2u raven/browns o33 -105 1u ravens ML -280 2u giants +3.5 +102 1u giants +3.5 -106 2u giants/hawks o45 -105 1u eagles -6 -105 1u eagles -6 -110 2u broncos +6.5 +105 1u broncos +7 -112 2u broncos/pats u39 -102 1u broncos ML +276 1u panthers -3 -102 2u panthers -3 -104 4u skins ML -203 1u skins -4 -104 4u units bet: 43
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