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#1
09-18-2006, 09:58 PM
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Rule-Of-Thumb Pot Odds Drawing Question
Assumptions:
Post flop I'm one of two players left in the hand I've got a nut-flush-draw I'm 2nd to act First player bets %X of the current pot Ignoring implied odds, at what X is it a break-even pot-odds call/fold with (A) two cards to come? (B) one card to come? 
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#2
09-18-2006, 10:03 PM
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Re: Rule-Of-Thumb Pot Odds Drawing Question
[ QUOTE ]
Assumptions: Post flop I'm one of two players left in the hand I've got a nut-flush-draw I'm 2nd to act First player bets %X of the current pot Ignoring implied odds, at what X is it a break-even pot-odds call/fold with (A) two cards to come? (B) one card to come? [/ QUOTE ] Depends on if your Ace is live. If you think you only have 9 outs, then A is ~100% of pot (giving you 2:1), while B is 33% of pot (giving you 4:1)
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#4
09-19-2006, 10:20 AM
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Re: Rule-Of-Thumb Pot Odds Drawing Question
[ QUOTE ]
i'm no pro poker player but I thought (to break even) 9 outs is 50% of the pot (3:1) with 2 cards to come [/ QUOTE ] No, Binion is right, with 2 cards to come you are 2 to one, so it is an easy call if you are all in. Note that against a set you are worst than that. Now if you don't know your odds and are looking for a rule of thumb: with 2 card to come: "number of outs"x4 = percentage to win the hand. with 1 card to come: "number of outs"x2. It is not exact but pretty close. If you have the ace of the flush you can add 1 or 1.5 outs on average too. In the OP example: 9 outs x 4 = 36% and 9outs x 2 = 18 % wich is close enough to the 34% and 19.1% (19.6% if the one card to come is the river instead of the turn).
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#5
09-19-2006, 12:58 PM
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Re: Rule-Of-Thumb Pot Odds Drawing Question
the reason i thought it was 3:1 was because 34% means that one in three times you will make the flush on the turn or river so you would need to be making three times your bet when when you win to break even in the long run (ie if your chances were 20% of hitting I would be looking for at least 5:1). If thats wrong then I must have misunderstood the concept. Please put me right?
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#6
09-19-2006, 04:01 PM
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Re: Rule-Of-Thumb Pot Odds Drawing Question
[ QUOTE ]
the reason i thought it was 3:1 was because 34% means that one in three times you will make the flush on the turn or river so you would need to be making three times your bet when when you win to break even in the long run (ie if your chances were 20% of hitting I would be looking for at least 5:1). If thats wrong then I must have misunderstood the concept. Please put me right? [/ QUOTE ] To make it even simpler, when you are 50%, you'll hit 1 time every 2 tries on average but your odds are 1 to 1 (even money). Out of 2 tries you'll win one, your opponent one on average. Now when you win 33% of the time, you'll hit 1 time every 3 tries: 3 tries means 1 win for you, 2 wins for your opponent, so 2 to 1. See the pattern: wins 1 time over three means "(3-1) to 1" underdog. A few examples to have on mind pre flop: AA is more than a 4 to 1 favorit over any other hand (more than 80% favorit) AK vs Ax is almost 3 to 1 KK vs Ax is more than 2 to 1 favorit. I recommand using Pokerstove. You can play around with it to get a feel of a hand vs ranges, it is very helpfull.
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#8
09-20-2006, 10:15 AM
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Re: Rule-Of-Thumb Pot Odds Drawing Question
[ QUOTE ]
the reason i thought it was 3:1 was because 34% means that one in three times you will make the flush on the turn or river so you would need to be making three times your bet when when you win to break even in the long run (ie if your chances were 20% of hitting I would be looking for at least 5:1). If thats wrong then I must have misunderstood the concept. Please put me right? [/ QUOTE ] 34% is 66:34 odds against hitting or 2:1 20% is 80:20 odds against hitting or 4:1
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