How to win Survivor Football x-posted from Sporting EVents

[Force1]

"Saving" teams for later use if very bad strategy IMO. Not only do we not know who is going to be a "good" team later in the year usaully survivor leagues end fairly quickly (Week 10-12 with last year being the exception). To be succesful in Survivor there are a couple rules you must follow.
1. NEVER pick a road team. The only reason to ever pick a road team is if you absolutely have too.
2. Take the best game on the board that you are eligible for every week. Don't worry about teams to save later no matter what during a given week of a NFL season someone will be a 7 pt fav.
3. If you've narrowed it down to 3-4 home teams you like take the non-division game. IMO, division opponents know eachother to well and a upset is more likely.
4. When in doubt, take the bigger ML favorite.
5. When still in doubt, take the team with the better TO ratio.

I have finsihed no worse then 3rd 5 years running by following these rules. Please believe me when I say there is absolutely no reason to "save" teams for later use, if you lose on the week where you took a iffy game to save "Indy" for later it won't matter anyways. So far your picks should of been..
Week 1-AZ, or NE.
Week 2- IND

This week was pretty close games across the board. Looking over the games my clear cut pick is Miami over Tenn. This keeps to most of my rules. Miami is at home, in a non-divisional game and they are the biggest ML favorite on the board.

[Thremp]

I agree with the vast majority. Though I think the main thing to focus on is seperation.

I'd gladly give up 3-5% edge each week if over a third of my league was on a pick. Again payouts should determine this.

Also, looking ahead might not be a bad plan. When also looking for seperation.

[Caldarooni]

Sure seems like a contradiction to say week 1 should have been NE or AZ but week 2 should have only been Ind. Seems Balt would have fit just as well with the criterion that let you select AZ.

[Force1]

[ QUOTE ]
Sure seems like a contradiction to say week 1 should have been NE or AZ but week 2 should have only been Ind. Seems Balt would have fit just as well with the criterion that let you select AZ.

[/ QUOTE ]

I kinda mistyped taht part, its supposed to be what my suggested pick of that week was not the clear cut only pick. I took IND cause they were bigger ML favorties and I had 3-4 teams I liked.

[Force1]

Week 1 good picks=Az, or NE
Week 1 bad picks=MIA,NYJ,CLE

Week 2 good picks=IND,BAL,SD
Week 2 bad picks=DAL,MIA,StL

I know some of those "bad" picks were winners but this early in the year there is no reason to risk it.

Week 3 rec. pick =MIA
Week 3 rec. "stay aways"=IND,BUF,DET,NE

[Force1]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd gladly give up 3-5% edge each week if over a third of my league was on a pick. Again payouts should determine this.

[/ QUOTE ]

We are not allowed to see the other players picks before the games kickoff so this does not apply to my league.

[splashpot]

[ QUOTE ]
Week 3 rec. pick =MIA
Week 3 rec. "stay aways"=IND

[/ QUOTE ]
Why do you recommend staying away from Indy this week? On Pinny right now, they're a -9.5 favorite. Miami is -11, but I don't trust them at all after the past 2 games. Culpepper looked awful, especially against Buffalo.

I'm gonna wait to see how Jacksonville does tonight, but unless they show a spectacular performance, I'd be much more comfortable taking Indy at home rather than Miami next week.

(I've used Ari and Bal)

[Thremp]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'd gladly give up 3-5% edge each week if over a third of my league was on a pick. Again payouts should determine this.

[/ QUOTE ]

We are not allowed to see the other players picks before the games kickoff so this does not apply to my league.

[/ QUOTE ]

Haha. This isn't thinking in that case. BSP can help you out.

[Force1]

[ QUOTE ]
Why do you recommend staying away from Indy this week? On Pinny right now, they're a -9.5 favorite. Miami is -11, but I don't trust them at all after the past 2 games. Culpepper looked awful, especially against Buffalo.

[/ QUOTE ]

I didn't like Indy this week because JAX historically plays them very tough, JAX has only lost by a combined 25 pts the last 4 meeting (love Jax +10 BTW) and its a divisional opp. Yes, Culpepper sucks but MIA is playign a clearly inferior opp and its not a division game while IND is playing a strong opp in a divisional game. That was my thinking on it.

[splashpot]

Yea, after seeing how tough the Jags defense looks tonight, I'm probably not gonna take Indy. No idea now. I still don't trust Miami.