25NL, is there even a question?

[Godfather80]

My notes say that the BB was tight-passive pre- and post-flop and the Button was a calling station.

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.10/$0.25
5 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $5.45
CO: $33.75
Button: $40.15
Hero: $51.40
BB: $25

Pre-flop: (5 players) Hero is SB with 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
2 folds, <font color="#cc0000">Button raises to $0.5</font>, Hero calls, BB calls.

Flop: 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($1.5, 3 players)
<font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $1.5</font>, <font color="#cc0000">BB raises to $4</font>, Button folds, <font color="#cc0000">Hero???</font>

[Nepthu]

Well the button has shown some strength here since he has raised a pot sized bet with the button yet to act. He could have something like 79 for the straight so i don't think I would come over the top.

He is giving you about 1-2.8 pot odds I think. You are 1-4.2 to hit the flush on the turn. And you have a good amount behind. I think I would call and see a turn card. Besides you might improve to 2 pair or trips to make it interesting.

[Godfather80]

[ QUOTE ]
Well the button has shown some strength here since he has raised a pot sized bet with the button yet to act. He could have something like 79 for the straight so i don't think I would come over the top.

He is giving you about 1-2.8 pot odds I think. You are 1-4.2 to hit the flush on the turn. And you have a good amount behind. I think I would call and see a turn card. Besides you might improve to 2 pair or trips to make it interesting.

[/ QUOTE ]

This thinking seems very scared to me, but perhaps you are right to be cautious. I just don't think calling can be the right play here because we need to see both the turn and river for our hand to have its maximum value.

[gimmetheloot]

if he is tight passive he has you beat right now. Just call and try to get paid later. If you shove he is calling and you are getting it in as a dog to his 2 pr/set/str8

[Pokey]

Let's count, shall we?

9 club outs
3 straight outs
2 set outs
3 two-pair outs

That's 17 outs, and I'd guess that they are all clean. You've got 60% pot equity, the pot overlay is large, you want to see both of the remaining cards, you're OOP and villain is acting aggressively in the hand: shove, expecting villain to call, and knowing that you'll be winning a buyin three times out of five.

[Yaboosh]

Any set, any two pair hand, any straight, and an overpair 99-JJ and you are a coinflip. If he does this with top pair, you go up to a 55/45 favorite. You have to have some fold equity. Push.

[gimmetheloot]

Pokey, I dont know how you are saying we have that many clean outs. At least some of them are very, very dirty. IE (9's, 6's)

[Godfather80]

[ QUOTE ]
Let's count, shall we?

9 club outs
3 straight outs
2 set outs
3 two-pair outs

That's 17 outs, and I'd guess that they are all clean. You've got 60% pot equity, the pot overlay is large, you want to see both of the remaining cards, you're OOP and villain is acting aggressively in the hand: shove, expecting villain to call, and knowing that you'll be winning a buyin three times out of five.

[/ QUOTE ]

This was my thought, Pokey. And against a standard opponent, I wouldn't even second guess myself. My read on this guy was tight-passive, but it wasn't an intensely good one. I had been playing with him for about half an hour (50 hands or so) and noticed only that he was rarely involved and rarely raising. What sort of read would you need to not push this?

[Nepthu]

Here is what I got from pokerstove:
(his hand) - (your equity)
set - ~38%
straight - ~41%
two pair - ~55%
overpair - ~55%

[holdme]

I would call if he's super passive since you will not have as many outs most of the time. Plus, he could get scared and check the turn behind if he has no straight. Otherwise, I would push.