(215) - Time to gamble???

[ClockWyze]

I know SNGPT will say this is a fold with this range.

22+,A2s+,A3o+,KTs+,KJo+,QJs

and even.. this range

22+,A2+,K2+,Q2s+,Q6o+,J7s+,J9o+,T8s+,98s

But does it doesn't take into account they will all be even stacked shorties and I can exploit the bubble to almost a sure win if I call and don't get sucked out on.

Anyone still think this is a call?

***** Hand History for Game 5177974331 *****
NL Texas Hold'em 215 Buy-in Trny:28765518 Level:6 Blinds(300/600) - Friday, September 15, 18:28:14 ET 2006
Table Table 113363 (Real Money)
Seat 7 is the button
Total number of players : 4
Seat 7: HoooDoggies ( 7870 )
Seat 10: VolumeOverSkill ( 6610 )
Seat 2: Talented__21 ( 3260 )
Seat 9: Papa_Guru ( 2260 )
Trny:28765518 Level:6
Blinds(300/600)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to VolumeOverSkill [ Kc As ]
Talented__21 folds.
>You have options at Table 111629 Table!.
HoooDoggies is all-In [7870]
>You have options at Table 112743 Table!.
Papa_Guru folds.
>You have options at Table 111629 Table!.
>You have options at Table 114417 Table!.
VolumeOverSkill....

[Dan.]

Fold

[durron597]

autoautoautomatic fold

[alex-star]

Fold as soon as inhumanly possible.

[lastchance]

When you see AK here, turn it in to 32o.

[Pilket]

Even if he's pushing ATC at this point, which he's not when you're in the BB, I'd only call with high pairs. The tighter his range, the higher the pair. I'd make my call range at 99+ if he is pushing ATC, and QQ+ if he is pushing with either of the ranges given (maybe KK+ for the first range).

But I don't think those numbers are in question. What you're asking is: does ICM take into account the fact that I have a much better chance at winning if I have a large stack compared to three shorties?

The answer to that is a simple no. ICM does not take skill into account but it does consider the chip sizes and expected values therein assuming all players are of equal skill. I'm not telling you anything you don't already know I'm sure. So, this still can't be the question. I pose this question to you and perhaps you'll find your answer:

How much does your skill increase your expected value with this final chip count:

Seat 7: HoooDoggies ( 1260 )
Seat 10: VolumeOverSkill ( 13520 )
Seat 2: Talented__21 ( 3260 )
Seat 9: Papa_Guru ( 1960 )

With this chip distribution skill hardly becomes involved. If you had much deeper and more equal stacks there would be a case for argument.

Cliff Notes: Fold.

Pilket

P.S. I'm still playing the 11s, how's my line of thinking?

[DevinLake]

Because we don't know how much value you will gain in the future with your ability to pwn the bubble, but we do know how much you lose by making this call. I say it is a fold.

What I am saying is that you have no way of knowing to what extent you are going to be able to abuse the bubble. You could call and win here and the bubble might burst the very next hand.

However, we know this to be a present time -$EV call. So, just fold.

[deathpotato]

The equilibrium for this situation is at around button pushes 65%, SB calls ~18-19%, you call 2%

So assume, for the sake of argument, button pushes 65% of hands (your win percentage actually goes down slightly as you widen his range, and changes very little for ranges between 50% and 80%). You win 65.6% of the time.

To match the EV of folding ($600 roughly), let's see what % of the time we must take 1st as opposed to 2nd (let's say we take 2nd 3x as often as we take 3rd, and we never take 4th)

.656*(1000x + 600(3/4)(1-x) + 400(1/4)(1-x)) = 600
.656*(1000x + 450 - 450x + 100 - 100x) = 600
.656*(450x + 550) = 600
295.2x + 360.8 = 600
295.2x = 239.2
x = around 81%

So we need to win roughly 80% of the time with 66% of the chips, and that's just to match the EV of folding - not to mention the fact that we give ourselves 0 chance of ending up last, which I think we all can say from experience is not the case. If we increase our chances of taking first to 90% we only gain about $25 in EV, and I think 90% is a pretty optimistic figure.

I don't think you can justify a call here no matter how good you are on the bubble.

[b33nz]

its read dependant.. i will generally fold.

[curtains]

I think its a hideously bad call. Also saying you will have almost a "sure" win, is ridiculous. Youll have like 65% of the chips in play. The bubble could feasibly end in 1-2 hands. Maybe you could get your number of chips up to 80% if everything goes EXTREMELY well for you. Even then you will lose at least 20% of the time.