2/4 AQo from the SB, need to get aggresive

[TheBigHurt]

This probably ought to be basic, right after the hand I realized I probably messed it up and should have gotten aggresive at some point during the hand, but I'm not sure when would be the best time to do it. Also, what would be a good move on the river for the way I played it.

Data on UTG is 75/2.5/.78, and MP2 is 17/8/1.5. I don't have any other reads.


Hero is SB with A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (10 Handed)

UTG calls, MP2 raises, Cutoff calls, Hero calls, UTG calls.

Flop (9 SB): K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Hero checks, UTG checks, MP2 raises, Cutoff folds, Hero calls, UTG calls.

Turn (6 BB): 6 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Hero checks, UTG checks, MP2 bets, Hero calls, UTG calls.

River (9 BB): A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Hero ?

[alul]

I would either fold or 3-bet PF. As played, bet the river.

[Harv72b]

I don't mind the coldcall preflop. 3-betting is obviously not going to get UTG or CO out of the hand, and your lousy position relative the TAG raiser is going to make this difficult to play postflop. The one thing I can see in favor of 3-betting is that UTG is obviously a pretty big donk, and assuming that the TAG MP2 has that read on him (safe assumption), MP2's raising standards will open up a bit as he tries to isolate. But again, if you're not comfortable playing this hand OOP postflop (as it looks like you're not), there's nothing wrong with the coldcall.

As far as postflop goes, if I'm going to be aggressive at any point there (given the coldcall preflop vs. 3-betting), it would be to check/raise the flop. The K present on the board does make it fairly scary, though, and I really don't blame you for check/calling there. I don't like a turn c/r as that's just going to cause MP2 to fold worse hands, call with slightly better hands, or 3-bet you with hands that crush you. I doubt that he even folds another AQ to a turn c/r.

So assuming we check/called both prior streets, I think we can bet the river. The ace hitting on the river is a scare card to a lot of hands that MP2 could be holding, as well as completing the JT OESD. So a lot of hands that MP2 might make a crying call with will probably check through rather than risk another bet. The only thing that complicates it is UTG, who looks like the kind of tard that would raise the river with a bare ace or weaker aces up, as well as the straight...which make a bet/fold line difficult. Maybe you could bet/fold if UTG raised & MP2 called 2, or if UTG called & MP2 raised...although I doubt he's raising even with a set.

[OMGTILTING]

Is it very weak tight to fold preflop?

[Xhad]

[ QUOTE ]
Is it very weak tight to fold preflop?

[/ QUOTE ]

I wouldn't say "very" weak tight, but probably marginally wrong. I think you could justifiably exercise any of the three options here depending on how confident you are postflop.

I agree completely with harv's analysis.

[W. Deranged]

[ QUOTE ]
Is it very weak tight to fold preflop?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes!

[Hobbs.]

I think this is a situation where calling preflop is best. I'd go ahead and c/r the flop. As played I'd bet the river.

[W. Deranged]

Hobbs,

What do we gain by check-raising the flop. We're behind often and a lot of the hands we beat (JJ, TT) are going to find easy fold if we check-raise.

[OMGTILTING]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Is it very weak tight to fold preflop?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes!

[/ QUOTE ]

Can you please explain this a little more, its might be very basic, i only just startaed playing limit after spending about a year at NL. You have a huge fish in UTG but MP seems to be quite TAG and you have poor positon so how can it be very weak tight to fold preflop.

[shark6]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Is it very weak tight to fold preflop?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes!

[/ QUOTE ]

Can you please explain this a little more, its might be very basic, i only just startaed playing limit after spending about a year at NL. You have a huge fish in UTG but MP seems to be quite TAG and you have poor positon so how can it be very weak tight to fold preflop.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're equity from Pokerstove is:

UTG (top 75% of hands minus AA KK QQ AK): 24.3%
MP2 (top 8% of hands): 41%
You (AQo): 34.8%

You have plenty of PF equity as is, and maybe even a higher percentage than stated since I think MP2 is going to expand his raising range to isolate UTG with higher than the top 8% of hands. Also, note that the further you expand MP2's raising range, the more correct a 3-bet PF becomes.

<font color="blue"> equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 34.7640 % 30.84% 03.93% { AcQs }
Hand 2: 40.9622 % 37.24% 03.72% { 88+, ATs+, KTs+, QJs, AJo+ }
Hand 3: 24.2737 % 23.64% 00.63% { JJ-22, AQs-A2s, K2s+, Q2s+, J2s+, T2s+, 92s+, 83s+, 73s+, 63s+, 52s+, 43s, AQo-A2o, K2o+, Q2o+, J4o+, T6o+, 96o+, 86o+, 75o+, 65o } </font>