NFL Week 2 - Time to pound the dogs?

[Sadat X]

One week is too small a sample size to evaluate how good or bad a team is. There's a number of teams that looked incredibly bad in week 1 and have taken a beating in the media over past few days. Fortunately for us, the media and the public tend to put too much emphasis on recent results and this is where we can find some +EV bets. Submitted for your consideration:

Oakland +12 @ Baltimore
I like this one because no team looked better than Baltimore or worse than Oakland. But 12 points? You still can't divert me from the fact that this is a battle of two non-playoff teams from last year. Oakland has a few nice parts on offense at key positions (Moss, Jordan, Gallery) and Baltimore could letdown here.

Cleveland +10 @ Cincinnati
I love getting 10 points in a rivalry game, even if it's on the road. This is the NFL, after all.

Tampa Bay +5.5 @ Atlanta
Vick always struggles vs the Bucs, TB has won 9 of the last 11 vs ATL.

New Orleans @ Green Bay +2
The NO defense will look a lot softer to Favre and company after facing the Bears week 1. No team has taken more shots in the media than the Pack and I think that bodes well for this line that should probably be PK.

Tennessee +11.5 @ San Diego
The way Marty Schottenheimer calls a game, SD isn't going to blow many teams out of the water. This is probably the most marginal line, IMO, but it goes with the philosophy, so I'll put up a unit.

One unit per game, I feel like I can get 3 out of 5. Good luck everyone.

[PropPlayer]

I'm almost certainly making the common mistake of giving to much weight to last week’s performance but none the less these games scare me the most. In my pool picks I took the favorites on both, but will not be betting them otherwise..
Tampa Bay +5.5 @ Atlanta
New Orleans @ Green Bay +2

The other games I like – Some better lines are also available (i.e +13 Oakland @ Bodog, +10.5 -105 @ SIA for Cleveland).

Good luck.

[livin_a_lie]

GB is WA at +3, thats a pretty big point for these 2 teams.

[Caldarooni]

I dont know how the Raiders score a point.

[dankhank]

i think you get a better number on each of these games waiting till kickoff

[Sadat X]

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i think you get a better number on each of these games waiting till kickoff

[/ QUOTE ]
i think you're right, but i'm not going to wait too long for fear of the sharps swooping in. we're talking big numbers for NFL games, here.

[TheRover]

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Oakland +12 @ Baltimore
I like this one because no team looked better than Baltimore or worse than Oakland. But 12 points? You still can't divert me from the fact that this is a battle of two non-playoff teams from last year. Oakland has a few nice parts on offense at key positions (Moss, Jordan, Gallery) and Baltimore could letdown here.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't necessarily disagree with the rest, but Robert Gallery is a terrible player.

[Assani Fisher]

I made similar statements in my thread about people overreacting to week one. I agree wholeheartedly.

[ebranig]

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I don't necessarily disagree with the rest, but Robert Gallery is a terrible player.

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quoted for truth. he is a busto

[CharlieDontSurf]

O/U on the number of times Aaron Brooks gets sacked?