[2/4+] A line I'm getting sick of paying off

Xhad · #1 09-13-2006, 05:43 PM

This is hypothetical, but I've played this hand or similar quite a bit lately and it's always been a set. If someone has experience to the contrary let me know because I'm seriously thinking of either bet-folding or checking behind the turn here...

Hero is UTG with A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (10 handed)

Hero raises, SB calls, BB calls.

Flop (6 SB): K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

SB checks, BB bets, Hero raises, SB calls, BB folds

Turn: 3 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

SB checkraises.

bozlax · #2 09-13-2006, 05:51 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Flop (6 SB): K 7 2

SB checks, BB bets, Hero raises, SB calls, BB folds

[/ QUOTE ]

What's he check/caling 2 on the flop with that isn't c/r'ing you on the turn? Now, how many of those hands are going to call again on the turn? Conversely, when he calls 2 on the flop and then c/r's you on the turn, it's a pretty easy laydown without at read.

That said, my default line with UI TPTK and an OOP Vill that called 2 on the flop is bet/fold the turn.

KurtSF · #3 09-13-2006, 07:05 PM

[ QUOTE ]

That said, my default line with UI TPTK and an OOP Vill that called 2 on the flop is bet/fold the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

I hate to sound like a donky but... I can fold this?!?

Could you elaborate some for me?

Xhad · #4 09-13-2006, 07:18 PM

Essentially, the rationale is:

-SB cold-called, rather than 3bet a raggy flop
-SB then c/r'ed a blank turn
-The blank turn is unlikely to have helped SB, therefore
-SB had a made hand on the flop
-SB didn't 3bet the flop, offering BB 12:1 on a call when he probably has some part of the board based on his flop donk, therefore
-Getting to checkraise the turn was more important than pricing out BB, so
-SB has a hand that is probably better than one pair, and 2pair is insanely unlikely on a K72 flop, so
-SB almost has to have a set

alul · #5 09-13-2006, 07:57 PM

Very nice post and good analysis. I have a question though. Why bet the turn and fold to CR if most of the time the villain has a set? Isn't it better to check behind and call on the river? We spend the same amount of money and look him up?

krubban · #6 09-13-2006, 08:02 PM

It isn't unusual that villain has a weak king or even A7 here so you should still bet the turn.

James. · #7 09-13-2006, 08:04 PM

hand reading.

Xhad · #8 09-13-2006, 08:13 PM

[ QUOTE ]
It isn't unusual that villain has a weak king or even A7 here so you should still bet the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

If Villain has either of those things he has at most 3 outs and the river is getting bet anyway (I'm betting the river if he doesn't).

alul · #9 09-13-2006, 08:21 PM

[ QUOTE ]
It isn't unusual that villain has a weak king or even A7 here so you should still bet the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

I've made some rough calculations. Suppose the villain has a set (and we are drawing dead) 2/3 of the time and a K 1/3 of the time.

1. I we bet, 2/3 of the time we lose 1BB and 1/3 of the time we win 2BB (EV=0)

2. If we check we lose 1BB 2/3 of the time and win 1BB 1/3 of the time. (-EV).

Of cource 1/3 and 2/3 may not be correct numbers, and I did not consider the possibility of bluff CR on the turn and possibility that he improves on the river and beats us and also possibilities that he calls the turn and folds or CRs on the river.

[img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]I'm not sure what it means but isn't it better to just check the turn and fold to a bet on the river or bet if checked?

n.s. · #10 09-13-2006, 09:05 PM

If there ever was a time to fold TPTK to one bet on the turn, it's this. Unless you have a read that SB is a total loon, what could he possibly have to call 2 cold on the flop? Players that are loose-passive enough to call 2 cold with a weaker K or a 7 won't CR the turn unless they make at least 2 pair. I think if you fold the turn every time here (against a known sane player), the worst possible case is that you fold a 5-outer while just barely getting the right odds (most of the time you will be drawing dead or to 3 outs).

Honestly, I'd probably be tempted to check behind on the turn and call the river, both because I'd get to see his hand and because it'd make me feel smart when he turns over a set [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]. Bet-folding the turn is probably the better play, though, in case he did make a bad flop call with just a pair.