What pot odds to give to people who like playing with any Ace?

[DPK99]

EDIT: This is for No Limit Hold Em

For example, say that I notice someone who will play just about any A-x hand out to the end with in the hopes of hitting top pair.

When they enter a hand, what are the minimum pot odds I should give to them so that a call before the flop, turn, and the river will be a mistake on their part?

[NorthLeviath]

Well, assuming that you can put the person on A-x, and assumming you are holding an underpair to thier Ace or flopped one, and you believe he will chase his one overcard, he has probably about a 10-11% chance of hitting it on the turn and a about half of that on the river. Any reasonable bet, i.e. half the pot size or higher, would make his call a bad call.

[Rosencrantz1]

[ QUOTE ]

For example, say that I notice someone who will play just about any A-x hand out to the end with in the hopes of hitting top pair.


[/ QUOTE ]

You think this player is computing pot odds as part of his decision-making process?

[jb9]

[ QUOTE ]
When they enter a hand, what are the minimum pot odds I should give to them so that a call before the flop, turn, and the river will be a mistake on their part?

[/ QUOTE ]

If they have a 3 out draw, you don't have to bet much to make their call a pot odds mistake, but why are you interested in charging them the minimum?

Bet as much as they will call. If he will call a full pot bet with Ax when you have KK, then make a full pot bet. If he'll call a 2x pot bet, make a 2x pot bet. If he'll call a push, push.

[AKQJ10]

[ QUOTE ]
You think this player is computing pot odds as part of his decision-making process?

[/ QUOTE ]

That's entirely beside the point. It's helpful to have some idea where the break-even point is that would make your opponent's call profitable so that you don't give him odds to make a profitable call. That's true regardless of whether your opponent knows a "profitable call" from a hole in the ground.

You generally want to charge as much as you can (actually to maximize EV), not just a little more than break-even if you could charge much more than break-even. However, knowing where the break-even point is is helpful, because you will generally prefer charging that price and inducing a fold to charging less and inducing a correct call.

Now to the OP's question: If he'll literally play as you said, you should make the biggest bet/raise he'll call on each street (assuming you flop an overpair) to make the most money from their loose calls. But preflop the break-even point is giving him about 7:3 or 2.33:1:

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=2074333
pokenum -h ah 7c - kd ks
Holdem Hi: 1712304 enumerated boards
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
7c Ah 492511 28.76 1215038 70.96 4755 0.28 0.289
Ks Kd 1215038 70.96 492511 28.76 4755 0.28 0.711

Then on the turn, the break-even point is a little better than 5:1

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=2074336
pokenum -h ah 7c - kd ks -- 9h jc 5d
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing Jc 5d 9h
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
7c Ah 158 15.96 832 84.04 0 0.00 0.160
Ks Kd 832 84.04 158 15.96 0 0.00 0.840

And finally with one card to come, the break-even point is above 10:1

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=2074338
pokenum -h ah 7c - kd ks -- 9h jc 5d 2s
Holdem Hi: 44 enumerated boards containing 2s Jc 5d 9h
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
7c Ah 3 6.82 41 93.18 0 0.00 0.068
Ks Kd 41 93.18 3 6.82 0 0.00 0.932

<font color="blue"> But really, raw odds calcs are only a small part of the story. The more important point is, a player who plays any ace is in terrible shape against a better ace. Do you maximize value in this situation? </font>

How do you play AK or AQ against these people? Do you raise or reraise (especially AK, be careful with AQ) for value preflop? Do you continuation bet when you both miss, so that your winning ace-king high won't get drawn out on for free by a three-outer?

And then when your "any ace" opponent hits top pair with you, you have a gold mine. Do you bet and raise for value to make his weak kicker really painful?

Finally, how does your opponent play when he spikes his three-out kicker (or spikes his ace against your underpair)? Can you get away from second-best hands and avoid laying huge implied odds? If so, then you can get away charging less of a surcharge to the break-even price. If not, you need to charge more to factor in the IO that you're laying when you pay off.