[200plo]: tranny surprise on the turn, what's my move?

[ratholeusoul]

Party Poker
Pot Limit Omaha Ring game
Blinds: $1/$2
10 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (10 players) Hero is MP3 with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
UTG folds, UTG+1 calls, <font color="#cc0000">UTG+2 raises to $9</font>, 2 folds, Hero calls, 4 folds, UTG+1 calls.

Flop: T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($30, 3 players)
UTG+1 checks, <font color="#cc0000">UTG+2 bets $14.2</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $48</font>, UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 calls.

Turn: A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($126, 2 players)


Villain has been aggro preflop, raising a lot preflop. How to proceed the best?

[wazz]

If villain has been aggro preflop then with this hand I sometimes like a reraise to isolate.

UTG+2 is first to act on turn ya? Give us his action before we can say what you should be doing. I like a passive line here and would probably fold to a pot-bet, but I would bet if checked to me, enough to fold a straight and possibly a set.

[ratholeusoul]

villain thinks for a while and checks.

[wazz]

Is the 'thinks for a while' part meant to imply that you believed he could be looking for a checkraise? JsQs is not unreasonable here.

[glass_onion]

Ok so he has a wide range preflop. He half/ 2/3 CB flop then calls your pot raise. Not only did the turn complete the st8, but also the flush.

To semi-bluff or not to semi bluff? I'd have to know two things: Your image, and stack sizes. Assuming you both had $200 to begin, my line would be to take the free card. The problem is you will be giving him the right to first bluff on the river. I'd look to call most bets if a 9, j or q didn't hit against a average, someone loose opponent.

I think the crux of the hand is his read on you, and whether you think he would adjust to it. I play tight, so I get bluffed on the river more. Therefore, my play is to take the free card hoping for help, and to snap off river bluffs otherwise. If I even 2/3 pot turn (with 200bb starting) I'd have a terrible decision if he pushed, so I don't think it is a good play.

Id certaintly like some other feedback on this one though.

[guilt_trip]

check behind hoping to hit a good card

[wazz]

I don't like the check behind here. You can usually push most opponents off a straight here, it's now obvious that your opponent wasn't playing the nut flush draw so it's less likely he now has the made flush. If you bet here you can also convince your opponent you have at the very least a straight or top set, and as such might be able to push him off more hands that beat you. The fact that he might be planning on checkraising you shouldn't matter too much - you have up to 6 outs to catch up to any better hands but could easily have less, and as such you can't really stand to call a large check-raise. Your draw is not worth enough for you to check behind hoping to catch a miracle that might not even be good enough. Take the initiative now, bet half the pot or the minimum that you expect him to fold to. Be prepared to bet the river if called and checked to as you can fold out the occasional straight and set.

[glass_onion]

How often do you think you can push a st8 off here. How often do you think they hold a flush, or even a 3kind they aren't folding? Of course, to contemplate whether a semi bluff like that is EV you have to know stack sizes, which is why I wonder if you really thought out your answer.

You said you can't stand a check raise, but even at 2/3 pot bet turn, if both started with 100BB they'd be effectively all in. You also advocate 'being prepared to bet river.'

Being aggro has its merits, but lets think what your true fold equity is here, what range of hands folds, what you stand to win, and what you stand to lose. I can't see this adding up.

[wazz]

We don't have the luxury of knowing stack sizes here. My response was making the assumption that there was room for more play if there is betting on the turn.

And do you really expect a straight or set to check-call 2 bets here? You would have to have a superaggro bluffing image for the average player to try to call you down.

[RoundTower]

I normally give up here and try to hit. Occasionally I would bet small and fold to a raise, then check behind river, but I think check now is best.