Analyze my two football picks for the week...

wrongarm300 · #1 09-12-2006, 07:09 PM

Three Team Teaser NCAA: Notre Dame (pick) against Michigan; UAB +23 @ Georgia; Nebraska +24 1/2 @ USC

Three Team Teaser NFL: Ravens -6 v Oakland; Cincinnati -5 v Cleveland; Seattle -1 v Arizona

MyTurn2Raise · #2 09-12-2006, 07:13 PM

I dislike your NCAA parlay and would've gone the opposite way on all 3 games.

I question whether UAB will score v Georgia.

USC might be as good this year as last year and this one can get way out of hand.

Michigan hangs in verse ND no matter what IMO and can very likely win the game.

wrongarm300 · #3 09-12-2006, 07:42 PM

You said in a previous post that you like Georgia to win 24-10, but you don't like UAB getting 23?

MyTurn2Raise · #4 09-12-2006, 07:48 PM

yep....the game has too much woodshed potential IMO

but, I must eat my words, I would go your way on Georgia/UAB. I'd find a much better game though.

wrongarm300 · #5 09-12-2006, 07:52 PM

k.. here was my thinking...and I could be way off base (that's why I was asking for opinions)

I watched the UAB @ OU game two weeks ago and in my opinion UAB could've easily won that game. UAB just always seem to give maximum effort and never give up regardless of the scoreboard. I know he looked pretty good, but Georgia is starting a freshman at QB that was originally their 3rd string guy. That scares me.

ND looked like world beaters last week against PSU and in the 2nd half they looked good against GTech. Michigan looked horrible v Vandy in the first week and Henne looked like he couldn't hit an open receiver to save his life. I agree that Michigan stays with ND usually, but I just think ND outclasses them this year and I get the game straight up. All ND has to do is win @ home.

USC/Nebraska, I have nothing to say. I have not seen either team much. I watched Nebraska v LTech which was not worth even mentioning. But Nebraska getting 24 seemed to good to pass up. I haven't placed the bet yet, just what I was looking at so far.

ThankgodforRB · #6 09-12-2006, 11:04 PM

For NCAA, I don't like NEB/USC at all. The others look decent to me. I think the USC/NEB game is going to be a question of whether USC can totally overpower NEB or not, and if they do then I see the likelihood of the MOV being greater than 24 as very high. Basically, I think either Neb can hang and it stays within the original spread, or they can't in which case this gets way out of hand. So, I don't think the extra teaser points you're getting for NEB are worth it at all...this seems like a very bad teaser game to me. I'd definitely go the other way on the teaser if I touched that game.

Now that I have said all that, my prediction for the game is 45-24 USC.

Thremp · #7 09-12-2006, 11:07 PM

FWIW I think Michigan will play a closer game with ND. I think they battle it out and keep it margianlly a game. I think ND is much much better, but Michigan is talented and will play them tough since they have a bullseye on them this year, that said I think the pk for ND is a fine one. the ML says ND wins this what... 80% of the time?

Artdogg · #8 09-12-2006, 11:44 PM

That NFL teaser is ugly, the points you are getting in the cinci and balt games is not worth what you are giving up. Most strategic teasers involve crossing the 3 with favorites, with some also crossing the 7 with small dogs.

Mr.JR · #9 09-13-2006, 12:09 AM

Anyone like Duke at +35 vs. Virginia Tech?

VT has averaged 36.5 points per game, while Duke has averaged only 6.5 per game.

Lori · #10 09-13-2006, 02:07 AM

Just a thought as I have to admit I haven't studied your bets, why not have 6 straight bets on the 'normal' lines. If your reasoning is decent, you could hope to win four of them and make a nice profit. In fairness, your expectation is unlikely to be much over 3.5 even if you're a super-picker, but in terms of betting I think that 6 single bets would make more sense. Especially in the college games.

Lori