Anyone else think 10pt teasers might be the play this week? (NFL)

[Caldarooni]

I know, I know.

Suckers bet, -ev, etc.

But holy [censored], c'mon look at these lines.

Right now:

Baltimore -11 v Oakland
Denver -11 v KC
Cinci -10.5 v Clev
San Diego - 10.5 v Tenn
Indy - 13 v Tex

All the favorites are home against cupcakes. You pick 3 teams, take 10 points off the line (or add but not what I am thinking) and it usually pays 6 to 5.

I know they are bad in the long run, but again:

Baltimore -1
Denver -1
Cinci -.5

All at home. I like it.

Thoughts?

[SoloAJ]

Denver -1 scares me. KC can play tough. I'd probably take the SD or Indy before Denver.

[Homer]

I'd replace Denver with Indy.

[Caldarooni]

There is no way Denver loses at home to KC. No way [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

I definately agree that KC is the toughest of the opponents, but Huard as the QB, Denver losing week one, Denver at home, all are enough for me to like them.

[Lori]

Moneyline bets:

BAL: 1.118 (-850)
DEN: 1.188 (-533)
CIN: 1.176 (-568)

= 1.56 (-179 (I think))

Which would make your 6/5 rather good, even allowing for the fact that you might get stitched if one of them wins by one point.

Lori

[Homer]

[ QUOTE ]
There is no way Denver loses at home to KC. No way [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

I definately agree that KC is the toughest of the opponents, but Huard as the QB, Denver losing week one, Denver at home, all are enough for me to like them.

[/ QUOTE ]

Put it this way, I think it is more likely Indy wins by more than 3 than Denver wins by more than 1. Neither is likely to use, but I think Denver is more likely.

[BK1248]

when do 3-4 team teasers not look good?? TEASErs, ill take ur bet

[booger]

I have Balt-1,SD-2 and Den-1 in a 10 pt tease

[Performify]

Bodog has these for -110 (sweatheart tease) in 3-team, ten point, and 4-team, thirteen point.

They aren't the best play normally but occasionally I think they do have value. I don't know that this is the week that they do, though.

In the ten point tease I'd I like KC +21 more than Denver -1, the Chiefs with a week to prepare with Huard won't let Denver outscore them by three TDs. Chiefs +21 screams backdoor cover if nothing else. Plus there's always a chance with Plummer at the helm that the Chiefs upgraded secondary can win this game, especially if M.Bell's finger is hurt worse than early reports (or if it causes an extra fumble, etc).

Cincy and SD look like the two best plays, with KC the third. Indy not crossing the 3 stinks - under Bodog's -110 sweetheart teasers a push is a loss, the teasers don't reduce, so you wouldn't want to use that on Bodog for sure.

Unless as part of a 13-point four team, I guess: moving to KC +24, Cincy +2, Colts -1, SD +2.5 would be my play if I were asked to make a 13-point tease. but there's really not a lot of extra value there: you're just getting the Colts down and the Chiefs up across the third TD, but the Cincy / SD extra points don't matter much.

[Caldarooni]

Its funny, cause I am considering a round robin with all the favs, leaving Baltimore as the only one that doesnt change. Baltimore being the one team you didnt mention. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]