J10s, decent draw on flop NL$50 6m

[AZplaya]

Don't have PT because I'm visiting family, so this is from memory. Villian is a fairly tight, straightforward player, haven't seen him get out of line.

NL $50 6m on Party

Relevant stacks:
Villian: $48
AZ: covers

1 limper to me on the button, I raise J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]10 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] to $2.50, SB folds, BB reraises to $5, all fold to me, I call.

Floppot ~$10)

6 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]7 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]8 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

BB leads for $7, AZ???

[delta k]

I don't mind calling here with position if we think villain is good enough to realize our push on this board is likely a draw and call w/ his overpair.

[g29w]

I don't think villian is going to fold his overpair (unless he has AK) to a push or raise and you're about even against an overpair. Against non-donk who doesn't minraise tighter player, you have enough FE to raise/push.

You can call with your odds, but might have to shut down on the turn if vilian bets near full pot.

[loosbastard]

I think I push...most SS players probably aren't going to put you on a draw and if he does call you're likely a coinflip against an overpair. Plus there's already a decent amount of money in the pot to go ahead and shove the rest of your stack in.

Also, if he does call and you do get stacked...I'd reload because now I probably look like a total donk.

[AZplaya]

thanks for the responses thus far. I'm almost positve he has and overpair, and I think I have close to zero fold equity. Given this info, do you all like a shove with 12 clean outs, or a call and re-evaluate turn.

[terp]

four of your outs could actually elicit a later fold from him (the 9s) but he'll probably stack off on almost any spade (A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]/K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] could be problematic).

basically you have 12 outs but possibly only 8 functional ones, and maybe as few as 6....so this spot isn't as hot as it looks. i'm not sure what i'd do. if pushing is neutral EV and calling sucks given he might not pay us off on four of our outs, i wouldn't hate a fold.

[tubasteve]

I like a call, because I think he has AK here a lot and will check to you on the turn, where you can profitably semibluff if you miss. From my experience (albeit limited) the small miniraise preflop is AK just as often as a big pair. People just suck at bet sizing.

[JackAll]

If he has an overpair, then you have 12/46 chance of beating 99, 9/46 against QQ+, and not much agaist a set. So calling is standard. These are not good odds.

I think calling with position is by far the best play without an amazing read that he will fold to a push.

And with such a huge combo drawn (18 outs against TP!), most would suggest 3-betting the flop all in. But after my day , I'm not so sure.

[toybux]

Push. You are almost always at WORST against an overpair here, which is breakeven. If villian has AK/AQ (or 99/TT that he will fold, or other random hands) almost ever here, this push is +EV. I doubt there is a more +EV way to play it (i.e. just calling here), because playing the turn and getting paid off if we hit is much harder. Show if you miss, and have a loco image!

[Shaddux]

I just call with odds and position.