Revisiting an AA hand (25 fr)

HitNRunPoster · #1 09-11-2006, 03:48 AM

(This hand was originally posted with hero having 88 -- an easy fold -- but with AA it becomes a hand that's harder (for me) to play. I'm even willing to accept help from TehPokerWizard in this hand... maybe... [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img] )

UTG limps. After 40 hands he's 33/12/0.4 and he commonly raises to $0.98 in ep. He also folded to me when I reraised him to $3 earlier.

I underbet the flop quite a bit, and this hand illustrates one of the problems with that quite clearly. I'm a slow learner or something.

Anyways, after I get checkraised on this flop, what should I do, and why?

Let's say you say push... well, why push rather than pot-sized raise it? Let's say you say call and raise the turn, why? Etc.

Thanks for your help on the 88 hand too!

--Dave.

----------------

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

stacks:
UTG+1 ($34.81)
Hero ($27.03)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $0.10.
1 fold, UTG+1 calls $0.25, 2 folds, Hero raises to $1.25, 4 folds, UTG+1 calls $1.

Flop: ($2.85) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $1.7, UTG+1 raises to $4.36, hero?

HitNRunPoster · #2 09-11-2006, 02:17 PM

bump

MasterLJ · #3 09-11-2006, 02:47 PM

Holy crap. That is a donkey.

Anyone with high PFR and VPIP and low aggression are super donkeys. I think our donkey caught a hand here.

Aggression is the factor in your read that should mold your decision, but at the same time it is the statistic that needs the most amount of hands to have any correlation with villain's true number.

That being said I simply can't see someone with a decent sized hand sampling (200 or better) with 0.4 aggression raising you with something that doesn't beat you here.

Yaboosh · #4 09-11-2006, 03:39 PM

Call flop and push over his turn bet (unless it is a T, then you are probably in trouble).

InternetJunky · #5 09-11-2006, 03:44 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Holy crap. That is a donkey.

Anyone with high PFR and VPIP and low aggression are super donkeys. I think our donkey caught a hand here.

Aggression is the factor in your read that should mold your decision, but at the same time it is the statistic that needs the most amount of hands to have any correlation with villain's true number.

That being said I simply can't see someone with a decent sized hand sampling (200 or better) with 0.4 aggression raising you with something that doesn't beat you here.

[/ QUOTE ]
Over 40 hands those stats mean nothing. Even the aggression factor is likely misleading.

I call his c/r and try to keep a small pot here. A set seems likely, but this could also be somebody who limped kings trying to be tricky.

MasterLJ · #6 09-11-2006, 03:48 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Holy crap. That is a donkey.

Anyone with high PFR and VPIP and low aggression are super donkeys. I think our donkey caught a hand here.

Aggression is the factor in your read that should mold your decision, but at the same time it is the statistic that needs the most amount of hands to have any correlation with villain's true number.

That being said I simply can't see someone with a decent sized hand sampling (200 or better) with 0.4 aggression raising you with something that doesn't beat you here.

[/ QUOTE ]
Over 40 hands those stats mean nothing. Even the aggression factor is likely misleading.

I call his c/r and try to keep a small pot here. A set seems likely, but this could also be somebody who limped kings trying to be tricky.

[/ QUOTE ]

I didn't catch the handcount the first time and I said that aggression is the statistic that requires the largest hand count sample to be anywhere near accurate.

HitNRunPoster · #7 09-11-2006, 05:59 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I didn't catch the handcount the first time and I said that aggression is the statistic that requires the largest hand count sample to be anywhere near accurate.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, no big deal man.

MAceJas · #8 09-11-2006, 06:06 PM

yeah, I'm concerned you accidentally induced a bluff with that small flop bet. Given the situation you're in, I'd call the flop raise, then see how he leads the turn.

If he leads the turn with a full pot bet, you might be in trouble. If he is passive, I'm not sure he'll fire again on the turn.

If he checks the turn on a blank, I fire a value bet of 3/4 pot or so.

Then re-evaluate his action.