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#1
09-10-2006, 09:48 PM
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(OT) Phil Gordon\'s Little Green Book- Bad beats happen 46% of the time
I just finished The Little Green Book. I found this interesting:
AA is a 81.26% favorite over KK. but if you go all in as the 81% favorite 3 times in a Tourny, there's a 46.35% chance of a bad beat. AA vs. KK: Chance of All In Survival 1 81.26% 2 66.02% 3 53.65% So from that example, is it correct to extrapolate to the following? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] If it was a 70/30 (A9 vs A3): 1 70% 2 49% It's a coin flip whether or not you'll suffer a bad beat by your 2nd all-in as a 70/30 favorite. If it was a 60/40 (AT vs KQ): 1) 60% 2) 36% Odds are you WILL suffer a bad beat with your 2nd all-in as a 60/40 favorite. If the math is right, it brings me a little bit of comfort to a bad beat. (But bad beats still suck!) If i'm misinterpreting everything, please elaborate. 
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#2
09-10-2006, 09:56 PM
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Re: (OT) Phil Gordon\'s Little Green Book- Bad beats happen 46% of the
[ QUOTE ]
Odds are you WILL suffer a bad beat with your 2nd all-in as a 60/40 favorite. [/ QUOTE ] Not quite. The odds are that if you push all-in twice as a 60/40 favorite, you'll lose at least one of those times. It might get skewed somewhat by the fact that if you lose the first one, you don't always get a second.
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#3
09-10-2006, 09:57 PM
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Re: (OT) Phil Gordon\'s Little Green Book- Bad beats happen 46% of the
This is chance all right. It's correct, but ofcourse every new hand where you aer 60/40, you're 60/40 again.
Thus this: [ QUOTE ] It's a coin flip whether or not you'll suffer a bad beat by your 2nd all-in as a 70/30 favorite. [/ QUOTE ] Is only correct if you say it before the first all-in. After you survived that, the next 70/30, you're 70/30 again.
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#4
09-10-2006, 10:19 PM
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Re: (OT) Phil Gordon\'s Little Green Book- Bad beats happen 46% of the
The chances you will win 2 70/30s is 49%, each has the same odds of winning individually.
If the math is right I didn't check it.
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#5
09-11-2006, 12:12 AM
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Re: (OT) Phil Gordon\'s Little Green Book- Bad beats happen 46% of the
Yeah, AA, your math is correct, sir.
However, something you should note is this: if you never get all in against a stack that is larger than yours, then you can not get knocked out even if you get a bad beat laid on you.
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#7
09-11-2006, 02:42 AM
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Re: (OT) Phil Gordon\'s Little Green Book- Bad beats happen 46% of the
[ QUOTE ]
so wait, is the idea that if you keep going allin as a 4-1 or 5-1 favorite, eventually youll probably lose? [/ QUOTE ] yea, it's basically saying the big mtt winners are luckboxes even if they are very good
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#8
09-11-2006, 02:47 AM
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Re: (OT) Phil Gordon\'s Little Green Book- Bad beats happen 46% of the
[ QUOTE ]
so wait, is the idea that if you keep going allin as a 4-1 or 5-1 favorite, eventually youll probably lose? [/ QUOTE ] Alternatively, if you go all in as 1-4 underdog all the time you will win.
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#9
09-11-2006, 02:48 AM
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Re: (OT) Phil Gordon\'s Little Green Book- Bad beats happen 46% of the
[ QUOTE ]
so wait, is the idea that if you keep going allin as a 4-1 or 5-1 favorite, eventually youll probably lose? [/ QUOTE ] LOOOOL NH
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#10
09-11-2006, 03:01 AM
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Re: (OT) Phil Gordon\'s Little Green Book- Bad beats happen 46% of the
If I remeber correctly, Phil goes much further with the AA example for large tournies. Something like 12% that you are going to win all of your AA all ins over the life of a tourny...I may be wrong for the number as I haven't read it for awhile, but the idea is correct I believe.
Fammy
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