Standard Deviation

HighSteaks · #1 09-09-2006, 03:23 AM

I have come accross SD on the site and my PT. My figure /100 hands is 13.18 BB.The hand sample is around 10,000. Is this figure acceptable and if it is and I am running square does that point to the fact that it is leaks that are likely costing me or am I way off on it's meaning in the first place.

Smurph64 · #2 09-09-2006, 03:56 AM

Standard deviation is the amount of bb you can typically win lose in an hour or over a hundred hands given your playstyle.

The lower it is the tighter and more passive you are. Typically people end up being in the 13 to 18 bb deviation range.

Its also used to calculate your chance of going broke...the higher your deviation the more bb you need to make sure you don't go broke up to 99% accuracy when you have a huge amount of hands.

Thrakkar · #3 09-09-2006, 06:09 AM

Does PT show the "standard deviation"? Where?

If not: how can I find it out?

-Thrakkar

drzen · #4 09-09-2006, 06:18 AM

Yes, it does. On the session notes tab, click more detail near the top.

Thrakkar · #5 09-09-2006, 06:24 AM

Found it! Thanks!!!

So, my stats are:
level 0.25/0.50: 14.7 BB/hour or 19.5 BB/100
all levels: 14.6 BB/hour or 12.1 BB/100

Is that good or bad? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

disco_stu1978 · #6 09-09-2006, 06:26 AM

not really sure but mine is pretty high up there too. like 16BB/100..... It probably confirms my suspicions..... I suck. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

jakbse · #7 09-09-2006, 08:06 AM

It's been a while since I was in school (11 years). Can I translate the SD as there's a 50% chance that I loose/win within 1SD over a 100 hands given that I'm a break even player? So for example if I'm making 3 BB/100 over a large sample and my SD is 13, there's a 50% chance that the result of playing 100 hands falls between -10 BB and 16 BB.

kerowo · #8 09-09-2006, 08:13 AM

10,000 hands isn't much at all. If you keep your win rate above .00BB/100 you are a winning player to date.

WilliamLP · #9 09-09-2006, 10:54 AM

Mathematically, if you know the true standard deviation, and you're working with a normal distribution,
chance of a result within 1 SD is 68.3%
within 2 SD is 95.4%
within 3 SD is 99.7%
within 4 SD is 99.994%

Those are approximations because you don't know the true standard deviation (PT only guesses it based on data so far), and it also probably isn't a completely normal distribution. But you can be pretty sure results will stay within 1 SD about 2/3 of the time, and 3-4 SD almost all the time.

kerowo · #10 09-09-2006, 10:58 AM

What is your normal session like? Is it 100 hands 1 tabling or 1000 hands 4 tabling? Are you running hot or cold? Granted, I'm not a math wonk, but 10k hands isn't anywhere near the long run. I still hold that the best way to know if you are a winning player is if you are, you know, winning.