$16 Tricky bubble situation

[Olback]

scossett was a solid multitabler who had been pushing like crazy up to here.

ZekeYeehaw was tight but would call with a hand.

gates6557 has 825 left after posting and has been trying to fold ITM.

Do i push here and take a likely coinflip with BB or do i fold and try to outfold SB ITM?


PokerStars Game #6208941685: Tournament #31479281, $15+$1 Hold'em No Limit - Level X (400/800) - 2006/09/07 - 23:29:51 (ET)
Table '31479281 1' 9-max Seat #9 is the button
Seat 1: gates6557 (1250 in chips)
Seat 4: scossett (7805 in chips)
Seat 5: Olback (1930 in chips)
Seat 9: ZekeYeehaw (2515 in chips)
gates6557: posts the ante 50
scossett: posts the ante 50
Olback: posts the ante 50
ZekeYeehaw: posts the ante 50
gates6557: posts small blind 400
scossett: posts big blind 800
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Olback [6c 6h]
Olback ??

[Green Kool Aid]

fold prefloop are uyou [censored] serious im drunk tho.;


WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

[AMT]

this is a very standard PF shove, you cant fold here....i played with you a lot tonight, btw

[flyty86]

poossshhhhhhhhh

[Green Kool Aid]

edit: im slightly m ore soberer now yea this is a push my nbad.

[ciaran]

[ QUOTE ]
this is a very standard PF shove, you cant fold here....i played with you a lot tonight, btw

[/ QUOTE ]

The number of short stacks here makes this interesting, but if BB calls any 2 (and he's getting like 3-1 on a call) and SB is tight as noted, this is hugely -$ev in SNGPT.

Folding means you can guarantee SB gets all-in at some point before you are, which means (barring stupidity on someone's part) that he has to survive his all-in and you subsequently have to lose your forced all-in afterwards.

It seems counter-intuitive to fold when you're almost a 2-1 favorite over BB's random hand, but I think you probably have to.

[AMT]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
this is a very standard PF shove, you cant fold here....i played with you a lot tonight, btw

[/ QUOTE ]

The number of short stacks here makes this interesting, but if BB calls any 2 (and he's getting like 3-1 on a call) and SB is tight as noted, this is hugely -$ev in SNGPT.

Folding means you can guarantee SB gets all-in at some point before you are, which means (barring stupidity on someone's part) that he has to survive his all-in and you subsequently have to lose your forced all-in afterwards.

It seems counter-intuitive to fold when you're almost a 2-1 favorite over BB's random hand, but I think you probably have to.

[/ QUOTE ]


sngpt does not take into account the fact that if one of the other two shorties double youre really screwed, and the fact that most big stacks here at this level are not calling any 2. not shoving this puts you in a TERRIBLE position if someone builds a stack/doubles up. i shove this.

[lastchance]

Yeah, I fold. I trust SNGPT.

Read the original post. Solid multitablers will call most hands here, don't rely on FE.

[hey_hermano]

[ QUOTE ]
Yeah, I fold. I trust SNGPT.

Read the original post. Solid multitablers will call most hands here, don't rely on FE.

[/ QUOTE ]

Correction...Solid MTT's will call many hands here...you still have some FE (think gap concept). I'm with AMT; without running any numbers, I push.

[ciaran]

[ QUOTE ]
sngpt does not take into account the fact that if one of the other two shorties double youre really screwed, and the fact that most big stacks here at this level are not calling any 2. not shoving this puts you in a TERRIBLE position if someone builds a stack/doubles up. i shove this.

[/ QUOTE ]

I realize all this, which is what makes this interesting. Perhaps I'm giving the average big stack too much credit, but I don't fold anything getting 3-1 here in his spot. Now, you can get into a game of he knows I know, but in BB's spot the biggest mistake you can make calling just isn't all that big, and I expect a solid multi-tabler to call here every time.