6M Bottom Set 3-way Pot

toybux · #1 09-07-2006, 11:14 PM

BB is 45/5/3.5 over a decent sample size. SB is 85/25/1, and pretty bad. He's the reason I'm at the table for the most part, and the source of my stack.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

saw flop|saw showdown

UTG ($14.50)
Hero ($92.35)
Button ($86.30)
SB ($39.56)
BB ($50)

Preflop: Hero is MP with 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $0.25.
1 fold, Hero raises to $2, 1 fold, SB (poster) calls $1.75, BB calls $1.50.

Flop: ($6) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB bets $0.5, BB calls $0.50, Hero raises to $5.55, SB calls $5.05, BB raises to $20, Hero...

OK, I think this is interesting. My raise could have been bigger, I think, but I don't think that is too critical to this hand. I could maybe see an argument for folding, but I don't think that is a very good option. I could push here, which is another $28 on top of his raise ($43-ish total more for me), but I think that shuts out SB unless he has twopair+. Or, I could call here and hope that SB comes along with a one pair or drawing hand and get it in on a safe turn. Thoughts as to which line is better?

ZingyDNA · #2 09-07-2006, 11:34 PM

I never fold a flopped set with 100bb deep.

martindcx1e · #3 09-07-2006, 11:36 PM

i'd be amazed if BB doesn't have you beat here almost every single time

barryc83 · #4 09-07-2006, 11:41 PM

Shove the flop, you will see bunch of 2 pairs here and tp+straight draws. If he has a set then you were destined to stack him. If he has a straight you have outs and 2 cards coming off. I hate just calling here, because what are you doing when the scare card comes on turn if SB calls flop raise too? You cant stack everyone on every hand. Also, if SB is really that donkish he could very well come along with top pair.

toybux · #5 09-07-2006, 11:46 PM

I think SB IS donkish enough to come along with TP or maybe a pair + draw hand. I think I am at least close against BB's range, but SB could easily come along here drawing dead or close to dead.

Does anyone think I should be giving serious thought to folding?

martindcx1e · #6 09-07-2006, 11:55 PM

i do because i think bb is almost always ahead of you

barryc83 · #7 09-08-2006, 12:04 AM

Do not fold this hand man. You have a 35% chance to win even if he flopped a straight. If youre folding because you think he has a better set, move down in limits because youre playing scared. At the point where BB raises 20 the pot is $37.50 and you have to call $14.5 (2.58 to 1). Even if he flopped a straight (youre a 2 to 1 dog) youre still priced in. Implied odds are also great because a lot of times SB calls allin I would probably fold overpair here, but not bottom set. Puuuuuuuuuuuuush

Pokey · #8 09-08-2006, 12:12 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I think SB IS donkish enough to come along with TP or maybe a pair + draw hand. I think I am at least close against BB's range, but SB could easily come along here drawing dead or close to dead.

Does anyone think I should be giving serious thought to folding?

[/ QUOTE ]

Nope. You can't fold this -- not if you think SB is coming along for the ride. At worst, you're committing another $45 to potentially win about $55, but if SB comes along all-in your potential win will be about $90. Even against a made straight, you're going to win one time in three (break-even on a push), and if villain happens to be semi-bluffing with a hand like TT or T9, you're golden.

Smooth-call to try and keep SB in the hand. If SB calls, you're pot-committed. If SB folds, push the turn if BB checks (semibluff) but call a bet only if you've got proper odds to continue (assuming villain is pot-committed and your implied odds include his entire stack).

barryc83 · #9 09-08-2006, 12:15 AM

dare we say..............weak tight

Shaddux · #10 09-08-2006, 12:41 AM

push