The value of a value bet

macdaddy991 · #1 09-07-2006, 02:55 PM

Villan is an unknown. This is my first orbit at the table.

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG calls, 1 fold, MP1 calls, Hero raises, 2 folds, SB calls, BB calls, UTG calls, MP1 calls.

Flop: (10 SB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (6 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG checks, MP1 checks, Hero bets, SB calls, BB folds, UTG folds, MP1 calls.

Turn: (6.50 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, MP1 checks, Hero bets, SB calls, MP1 calls.

River: (9.50 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, MP1 checks, Hero bets, SB raises, MP1 folds, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 12.50 BB

Normally I think the river is a good value bet. However I was discussing this hand with a much better player then I who said that that T was a worse card for me then I thought. Part of his rational was that low limit players like to play KT and 9T etc and that I need to be aware of what cards will hurt me. Obiviously I couldn't pay off the check raise, but I still think it was right to value bet with 2 players still in the hand. Thoughts?

MrWookie · #2 09-07-2006, 02:59 PM

This is a really easy bet against unknowns, even though the T may be bad. There are a lot of hands they could have here that the T missed and that will still pay you off. I'm not even convinced that you should fold to the c/r getting 12.5:1.

Aaron W. · #3 09-07-2006, 03:02 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Normally I think the river is a good value bet. However I was discussing this hand with a much better player then I who said that that T was a worse card for me then I thought. Part of his rational was that low limit players like to play KT and 9T etc and that I need to be aware of what cards will hurt me. Obiviously I couldn't pay off the check raise, but I still think it was right to value bet with 2 players still in the hand. Thoughts?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd value bet it. Villains can be calling down with enough other hands like K5s, Q9, and 77 and will often pay off a river bet. I hate to fold TPTK on the river for just one more bet in a big pot, so I call the check-raise.

car ramrod · #4 09-07-2006, 03:02 PM

yes this is a good value bet. I call the river raise also, not only is it close, he could be fos, and you get a read since you have none.

macdaddy991 · #5 09-07-2006, 03:03 PM

[ QUOTE ]
This is a really easy bet against unknowns, even though the T may be bad. There are a lot of hands they could have here that the T missed and that will still pay you off. I'm not even convinced that you should fold to the c/r getting 12.5:1.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well I thought about paying off, but I really do not think the average unknown 2/4 full player is capable of check raising a river without at least 2 pair. Had I had a read that me is a LAG, I call without second thought.

mwg47x · #6 09-07-2006, 03:04 PM

*Grunch*
I would bet that river as well, and I sure wouldn't have folded to his raise. I call it. Yes he might have us beat but he will be full of it a lot too. Of course I'm not familiar with 2/4 limit and the type of players at that level.

sean c · #7 09-07-2006, 03:06 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
This is a really easy bet against unknowns, even though the T may be bad. There are a lot of hands they could have here that the T missed and that will still pay you off. I'm not even convinced that you should fold to the c/r getting 12.5:1.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well I thought about paying off, but I really do not think the average unknown 2/4 full player is capable of check raising a river without at least 2 pair. Had I had a read that me is a LAG, I call without second thought.

[/ QUOTE ]

Is the river call -EV probably but getting 12.5:1 on the call your not losing much here by calling and you get the added benefit of getting a read on an unknown.

JussiUt · #8 09-07-2006, 03:25 PM

*Grunch*

I would bet the river. It seems you just got outdrawn but you must not miss value bets there in general. I'd call the check raise because I must be absolutely certain I'm beat when folding in a fairly large pot for just one bet. You'll get a read also by calling.

davelin · #9 09-07-2006, 03:29 PM

Ridiculously easy value bet. Personally I'm calling that raise as well.

macdaddy991 · #10 09-07-2006, 03:31 PM

Part of my rationale for folding

From SSHE page 200

[ QUOTE ]

The river is a scare card that completes one or two draws. Your opponent checks. You should be more then willing to bet if you think that there is no chance that your opponent would check raise you as a bluff. If you can safely fold to a check raise then you are always risking one bet to win one.

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree with my friend. I think a value bet on the river is good here. (had the river completed the flush, I would have most likely checked.) However I really to not think that getting a read on that paticular player is worth a whole big bet. If he is FOS then I will be able to determine this on future hands.

BTW this is my thinking process, I am not trying to blatantly disagree with anyone who said pay off, I just want to create ideas and discussion to improve my own play.