Questioning my assumptions - Pair + NFD vs LAG

Kyriefurro · #1 09-07-2006, 01:30 PM

I have always believed that one of the biggest logical errors that a person can make is to fail to question the base assumptions which they use to make a decission. This hand is one of those situations. Pair + nut flush draw is a BIG DRAW and should be played aggressively....or should it?

Villain is LAG - not maniac, and certainly not a good LAG, but somewhere in between. He's run 36/10/5 over about 150 hands. His WSD is only 23%, so he's definatly capable of folding hands.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

SB ($14.85)
BB ($10.60)
Hero ($70.18)
MP ($71.66)
CO ($48.77)
Button ($44.28)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $0.25.
Hero calls $0.50, MP calls $0.50, 1 fold, Button raises to $3.25, 2 folds, Hero calls $2.75, MP folds.

Flop: ($7.75) 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets $6, Button raises to $21, Hero........?

My standard line here has been to push, but I'm starting to question if that's really the best line against this particular type of villain. I have at least 9 outs, and probably somewhere closer to the full 14, assuming villain doesn't have AJ/A9/AA. Villain's not completely stupid, so I think it's somewhat safe to say that his range is in the neighborhood of JJ+/AJ/A9 and maybe KJ and JT. I'm a hair better than a coinflip against his range, and I don't think I've got any fold equity against this villain. So, all said, I'm considering the possibility that calling might be the better play.

Thoughts?

kitaristi0 · #2 09-07-2006, 01:32 PM

Shoving > calling. I also think CRAI > B3B.

PF is also ugly. Raise or fold first time around, fold 2nd time around.

Roadstar · #3 09-07-2006, 01:39 PM

Wow - preflop is atrocious. I think I'm correct in saying never open limp with A5s UTG. If you want to play raise. Having said that, why are you calling another $2.75 OOP against an aggro opponent? Thats spew.

As played, I poosh.

First, you say villain is capable of folding, so you have some FE.

Second, you say villain is a thinking player, if a flush comes, he could get away so your implied odds are not great

Third, the argument for not pooshing is for non-thinking LPP calling stations because i) you can extract maximum value when you do hit - therefore, you need NOT (edit) take a coinflip against him/her, ii) there is not much FE, making the poosh less +EV.

[ QUOTE ]
His WSD is only 23%, so he's definatly capable of folding hands.

Thoughts?

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Kyriefurro · #4 09-07-2006, 01:46 PM

[ QUOTE ]
PF is also ugly. Raise or fold first time around, fold 2nd time around.

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I know a lot of people dislike calling a raise with AXs, but against a loose player like this, I'll do it with some frequency, especially if villain is on the button or if villain has a higher than normal WSD (meaning he'll pay off my flush). There's a pretty good chance I'm ahead of his range here, so I pretty much treat it like a blind battle. For what it's worth, I'm also usually looking for at least 10:1 implied odds, based on stack sizes.

[ QUOTE ]
Shoving > calling. I also think CRAI > B3B.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok...you've told me the WHAT, now tell me WHY? [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

cbloom · #5 09-07-2006, 01:48 PM

God I'm sick of preflop nits. Limping UTG with this hand is a small mistake if it's a mistake at all. Calling the big raise OOP is pretty bad though, you need to fold there.

On the flop : The big problem is he put in half his stack already so you have no fold equity. Normally shoving vs. a LAG who can fold is the perfect play. It is true that shoving combo draws can be wrong if A) he would only raise big hands or B) he can't fold. In this spot CRAI on the flop is probably better to get more fold equity.

As it is, you can't just call here, you don't have odds to spike a turn card. You need to see both cards, so I guess you should just shove.

Roadstar · #6 09-07-2006, 01:58 PM

Fine calling that raise OOP is atrocious... open limping maaay be ok in a very passive table...

and I'm not a NIT! [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

[ QUOTE ]
God I'm sick of preflop nits. Limping UTG with this hand is a small mistake if it's a mistake at all. Calling the big raise OOP is pretty bad though, you need to fold there.

[/ QUOTE ]

DanIsBluffin · #7 09-07-2006, 02:04 PM

Shoving > calling because...

Shoving here is definitely +EV. If you just call and the flush card comes, as you said, he may be able to fold. If you just call and the A comes, you're might still be behind. Same with the 5 coming on the turn, but less chance of being behind (only losing to sets now, not overpairs). So you're really relying on the flush to come, but he may fold his hand to the flush card...

I think

Kyriefurro · #8 09-07-2006, 02:13 PM

[ QUOTE ]
God I'm sick of preflop nits. Limping UTG with this hand is a small mistake if it's a mistake at all. Calling the big raise OOP is pretty bad though, you need to fold there.

[/ QUOTE ]

Cbloom,

I'm playing Devil's Advocate here [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] - Since there is frequently at least ONE raise on a 6-max table, and since you're limping with the intention of folding to the (almost) inevitable raise, wouldn't limping be -EV here, then?

kitaristi0 · #9 09-07-2006, 02:14 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
God I'm sick of preflop nits. Limping UTG with this hand is a small mistake if it's a mistake at all. Calling the big raise OOP is pretty bad though, you need to fold there.

[/ QUOTE ]

Cbloom,

I'm playing Devil's Advocate here [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] - Since there is frequently at least ONE raise on a 6-max table, and since you're limping with the intention of folding to the (almost) inevitable raise, wouldn't limping be -EV here, then?

[/ QUOTE ]

Check NLHETAP Concept number whatever, "limping in can be correct even if you think a raise is likely."

Kyriefurro · #10 09-07-2006, 02:15 PM

[ QUOTE ]
As it is, you can't just call here, you don't have odds to spike a turn card. You need to see both cards, so I guess you should just shove.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is the ONE point I haven't considered in my ponderings. And I agree, I really need to see both cards.