Be strong or be scared?

[cbloom]

No Limit Hold'em Ring Game (6 max) , 5 players
Blinds : $1/$2

Stacks:
UTG : $194
CO : $241.18
Button : $337.10
SB : $163.49
Hero : $198

Pre-flop: (5 players) Hero is BB with 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
<font color="#cc0000">UTG raises to $7</font>, 2 folds, SB calls, Hero calls.

Flop: 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($21, 3 players)
<font color="#cc0000">SB bets $2</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $15</font>, UTG folds, SB calls ($13).

Turn: 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($51, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">SB bets $2</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $35</font>, SB calls ($33).

River: 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ($121, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">SB bets $33.51</font>, Hero just calls or shoves?

(don't ask me why I raised too small on earlier streets, must've screwed up multitabling or something)

[BukNaked36]

I wuss out here and call.

[younghov17]

uhh yeah ur flop and turn raises were pretty bad, i dont how u can just call here, im raising here every time

[Roadstar]

Any stats or read on this guy. With no reads, I venture to say this guy (calling a raise in SB) has probably has a pocket pair or suited connector.

Of course you're worried about 87, 33 and maybe 34s but these combos are so unlikely, villain had to have called to big bets to draw to a gutshot.

IMO, villain either flopped a set (so lower set) and did the weak bet hope you raise trick or he has something like TT or JJ and thinks overpair is the nuts and couldn't fold - by the river he saw no overcards and thought hes safe.

So I vote poosh since villain called two big raises, he'd prob needs a showdown.

[cbloom]

Roadstar, good thoughts. Doesn't that weak-bet-call really smell like a draw, though? I think if he had a real hand he would've raised earlier no?

[Roadstar]

I really can't see any remotely reasonable villain calling 2 streets on a gutshot, although 87 just became open ended on the turn. Plus, some donks don't want to lose their customer with a set, but must bet river to "extract" in case you check.

Having said that, I'm really surprised when I put in most small PPs and small SCs in his hand range your equity is less than 50%?!?! (which makes pushing suboptimal because you need to be good more like 70% of the time)

This is closer than I thought, I'd let my HUD stats tilt my decision. If he is generally passive postflop then I call. If hes aggro man, then poosh. Remember, 65s just "got there" with two pair...



Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

72 games 0.005 secs 14,400 games/sec

Board: 6d 2s 4c 9s 5h
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 45.8333 % 45.83% 00.00% { 99 }
Hand 2: 54.1667 % 54.17% 00.00% { 66-55, 33-22, 87s, 65s, 43s }



[ QUOTE ]
Roadstar, good thoughts. Doesn't that weak-bet-call really smell like a draw, though? I think if he had a real hand he would've raised earlier no?

[/ QUOTE ]

[coleco]

pretty sweet turn bet by villain ...lol

[gimmetheloot]

stick it in.