20/180- 89s- I've raised PF- and have an 8hi flop...now what? LAG???

[tedtodd]

I have a healthy stack, I'm trying to loosen up my play, and pickup a few hands. I bet 89 to hopefully hit the flop or a good draw...I hit my 8- now what?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

UTG+1 (t2726)
Hero (t10384)
MP2 (t6355)
MP3 (t2668)
CO (t5970)
Button (t14183)
SB (t6290)
BB (t4605)
UTG (t5477)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t500</font>, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, SB calls t400, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>.

Flop: (t1200) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets t800</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t1800</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises to t2800</font>, Hero ???

[mornelth]

Push; you have TP, SB doesn't think you hit this flop AT ALL, you have 2 backdoor draws and you're down to 20 BB's if you lose... Not QUITE the CL, but you're not dead either.

Yes, you may ACTUALLY be behind here... But it's a push for me nonetheless...

[CybrPunk]

[ QUOTE ]
Push; you have TP, SB doesn't think you hit this flop AT ALL, you have 2 backdoor draws and you're down to 20 BB's if you lose... Not QUITE the CL, but you're not dead either.

Yes, you may ACTUALLY be behind here... But it's a push for me nonetheless...

[/ QUOTE ]

Which worse hands call? You can only beat 22, 44-66 and any unpaired overcards. Every other hand he can have is ahead.

This seems like a huge case of reverse implied odds where you lose your stack when you are behind and pickup the pot when villain is on a total bluff. Even drawing hands like 56 carry huge reverse implied odds because if a 9 hits the turn you're surely going broke. When I play hands like 8d9d I'm not looking to go to war with just top pair esp. vs a cold caller out of the blinds who has bet and now 3-bet putting half of his stack in. Backdoor draw or not I don't see this as a +EV spot to come over the top with a push. Sure there is no fold equity left to allow drawing hands to fold but I would think drawing hands make up the smallest portion of villains range on this flop.

[Marc M]

I'd put him on JJ - 99 and fold.

[tedtodd]

Do you raise him on the flop? How much?

[Beachman42]

A call from the SB and a lead bet. Without a decent read that he's aggro/Laggy, I call the flop and fold UI on the turn. As you played it, I fold to his re-raise. He has clearly stated that he can beat TP.

[mattmcegg]

I like a push on the flop, and he may even fold the best hand here. I think after the re-raise we know we are beat, and we have to fold, but pushing the flop is good.

[AceLuby]

This is 77-JJ a large % of the time, don't play these types of hands for TP value. They have to be played for either 2p, set, straight and flush value. Also, why raise to 5x BB PF?

[bestcellar]

minireraise screams "I am way ahead"

He could also have you read for overcards trying to strongarm.

I probably put you at 85% way beaten (drawing to a three or five outter or dead) and 15% pretty far ahead (he has something like 86 or 66,44,22 or T9. Now we can eliminate some overpairs, as it's unlikely that someone would smoothcall AA, KK or QQ preflop. My range for him is JJ-22, 87s/o, T9s/o, A8s/o, K8s, 65s and maybe some other 8s and 7s in there, maybe J9s/o.

I just don't see him doing this with plain overcards. Maybe check/raising as a move, but not bet/three betting. Not unless it's a T9 or J9 or something with tons of outs

You are getting 2.2:1 on his remaining stack after your raise. Against that range of hands (yes, I know it's narrow), you are surprisingly 46:53.

Push.

[nath]

don't raise the flop without a plan as to how you will react.
i usually call the flop and if he leads into me again i push if i improve at all