Is there a value bet on river?

[Spartak]

SB is 26/10/1.7 over 50 hands for what its worth

Poker Stars
Limit Holdem Ring game
Limit: $3/$6
6 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is CO with K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
2 folds, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises</font>, Button calls, SB calls, BB folds.

Flop: 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (7SB, 3 players)
SB checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets</font>, Button folds, SB calls.

Turn: 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4.5BB, 2 players)
SB checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#cc0000">SB raises</font>, Hero calls.

River: A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (8.5BB, 2 players)
SB checks, Hero?

[TheHip41]

I'd check

he probably thinks you have aces full

[b2coder]

I would bet/fold the river. Seems like SB got scared of the ace so he probably has a 9 or 8.

[Anqew]

B/f.
-Roo

[theflyingcow]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd check

he probably thinks you have aces full

[/ QUOTE ]

[img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

[silkyslim]

bet/fold, he didnt have the cajones to follow through on his semi-bluff

[ejay]

In checking. The A is a scare card for him and he is worried about being cr, i think that there is still a good chance that he has you beat so i dont bet.

[Dagger78]

Check it down, I don't think you're getting paid off with a worse hand often (remember you're spliting with other nines).

[W. Deranged]

Bet.

He's likely checking the A for one of three reasons:

1. He has a decent hand he wants to showdown but got scared of the A.

2. He has a semi-bluff which failed and now he's just giving up.

3. He has a huge hand and is going to check-raise you again, or hit an A and is trying to get you to bet or something.

In case #1, you beat basically everything he has, as he is very unlikely to have an overpair to the 9, and you beat all other hands. You chop with all other 9s. So in this case you want to bet.

In case #2, betting and checking are basically the same, because he isn't going to look you up anyway most likely.

In case #3, it's an easy fold to a check-raise, so you only lose one bet here anyway.


So it's a simple judgment call: is villain more likely to have a hand like Q8, 87, 77, or something like that; or is he more likely to have an odd A or a monster?

It's a pretty tough call, honestly. If we weren't chopping with other 9s, I think it's a very easy bet. As it stands, I think most opponents are just not going to check a 6 or an A here on the river all that often. Hence, I give a slight edge to betting.

[gopnik]

I am betting this river. The most probably hand for the villain is an 8. I am folding to a c/r.