I want to fold these cowboys

hizo · #1 09-04-2006, 10:28 PM

UTG is Very loose from what I've seen thus far in 4 or 5 hands (K7o in MP with no limpers for example) and so far has only bet top pair but called down with much more marginal holdings. CO is brand spanking new to the table.

PokerStars 3/6 Hold'em (8 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. CO posts a blind of $3.
UTG calls, Hero raises, 2 folds, CO (poster) calls, 2 folds, BB calls, UTG calls.

Flop: (8.33 SB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 players)
BB checks, UTG bets, Hero raises, CO calls, BB folds, UTG calls.

Turn: (7.16 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets, CO raises, UTG calls, Hero ??

Hobbs. · #2 09-04-2006, 10:30 PM

pretty easy fold

WalkAmongUs · #3 09-04-2006, 10:35 PM

when 2 people pay 2 bets on this flop to see the turn you can be pretty certain that 1 of them has at least top pair. especially when CO calls 2 cold and then raises when the top card pairs. whatever he has...it beats your pair of Kings.

fold.

hizo · #4 09-04-2006, 10:41 PM

Thanks for reassuring me that I'm sane and that it's pretty straight forward, though I am a results oriented nit so I posted the hand. Here's what went down:

PokerStars 3/6 Hold'em (8 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. CO posts a blind of $3.
UTG calls, Hero raises, 2 folds, CO (poster) calls, 2 folds, BB calls, UTG calls.

Flop: (8.33 SB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 players)
BB checks, UTG bets, Hero raises, CO calls, BB folds, UTG calls.

Turn: (7.16 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets, CO raises, UTG calls, Hero folds.

River: (12.16 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG checks, CO bets, UTG calls.

Final Pot: 14.16 BB

Results in white below: 
UTG has 4s 4c (two pair, queens and fives).
CO has Ah 7c (two pair, queens and sevens).
Outcome: CO wins 14.16 BB.

Dazarath · #5 09-04-2006, 10:43 PM

I'm assuming you had no read, as you didn't list one, so good fold. Make a note for next time.

JJH3984 · #6 09-04-2006, 11:40 PM

Fold is easy. Make a Note.

AlienBoy · #7 09-06-2006, 03:05 PM

[ QUOTE ]
pretty easy fold

[/ QUOTE ]

Easy fold on PokerStars? Maybe - in a live B&M it'd be an EASY call. On Party it still possibly be a call.

Think about it - 12BB - you only have to be the best hand a little over 8% of the time to make it a good call - and you still have 2 outs to the near nuts (K on river and only pocket QQ beats you - and that's unlikely due to the action).

That means that 5% of the time you make the nut hand. And there is more than 3% of the time the possibility that you still have the best hand, IMO - therefore I think it's a profitable call in that position.

Considering your read on the loose guy, I might call and then play the river depending - but I am *not* a super tight TAG, either.

AB

W. Deranged · #8 09-06-2006, 03:28 PM

AlienBoy,

If we're considering calling the turn, we need to have the best hand significantly more than 8% of the time. Do you see why?

Hobbs. · #9 09-06-2006, 06:54 PM

[ QUOTE ]
AlienBoy,

If we're considering calling the turn, we need to have the best hand significantly more than 8% of the time. Do you see why?

[/ QUOTE ]
If we plan on showing our hand down by calling the turn raise and a river bet we need to be ahead 10.5ish% of the time. If we plan on calling the turn assuming we will have the best hand if the river checks through and won't if the river is bet (therefore we call the turn planning on folding the river UIed) then we only need the best hand 3% of the time.

AlienBoy · #10 09-07-2006, 12:21 PM

I thought about this hand alot on my way to the Hustler last night.

And I should mention that I play 4/8 in Los Angeles - this situation comes up alot, and IMO it is a close, not a clear cut, decision, meaning that reads are really critical.

I agree that if the read on the opponents is tight, it is a fold - but the OP already said loose, at least for one. Since there is no read on the raiser, it's harder to say. With the size of the pot, I'd say look for reasons to stay in, not reasons to fold.

You will river a King 5% of the time. And if you do I think you can expect to make at least one or two more bets on the river - but here's where it gets interesting.

If you are already ahead, a queen will fall an additional 5% of the time, if we are behind (someone has a queen) that queen will fall 2.3% of the times that we are behind due to a queen.

But when we are not behind due to a queen (if we are behind due to a set of fives or sevens, now boat) the queen will fall 5% of the time, and in this case we can be certain of getting more bets on the river. If someone has a smaller boat, then 3 or 4 more bets is possible.

In B&M's at 4/8, loose players will raise mid pairs like that ALL THE TIME. folding is just leaving money on the table.

On PokerStars, where people can actually play, I agree it is less likely.

With the above reads, on Stars, I'd call the turn and check/fold the river UI (here, if UTG bets out, I'd more likely fold, as CO may raise again, costing me 2 bets), but I'd bet/re-raise a King, and bet/call a Queen.

In a B&M at 4/8 or lower (I don't play 10/20 so I have no experience there), I'd call the turn, and check/call UI if my reads were typically loose players.

The only way I'm folding this in a live game is if my read on the villain is TAG, and that is at most 10% of the players in a B&M at least at 4/8.

AB