Have those of you not hedging lost your minds?

[FeltBelt]

You know, I see a lot of folks on here who never bet on sports blabbing away about how they're not hedging, and implying that hedging is somehow gutless given that Mansion has given us a "free" bet.

Now I don't know about you, but I don't routinely bet ~$500 on any game, let alone the first NFL game of the season when the starting QB has gone down. Basically, that is what you are doing, just to be clear. You could lock in a profit of about $500 by hedging, but instead you are gambling that $500 on Pitt to win. I have no idea why people who are normally so cautious and so rational would suddenly decide to risk a $500 gauranteed win.

[batmanoflove]

for one thing I can tell you, I just dont have extra bankroll to hedge.

[Ray Of Light]

[ QUOTE ]
I have no idea why people who are normally so cautious and so rational would suddenly decide to risk a $500 gauranteed win.

[/ QUOTE ]


Because its a completely risk-free bet. Because deciding to hedge your bet or to gamble it are both the correct decision. Because why be cautious, when you have nothing to lose? Because, Because, Because.

Who cares what you do with your free $1000 bet. If you choose to play it safe or gamboool it, thats up to you. If the $500 will make a major difference to your bankroll, then definitely hedge. Otherwise, buck up and let it ride! [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

An extra $500 won't make a difference to my bankroll, but a $1000 will. So I am gonna gamboool it up. Its all about what your own risk/reward threshold can take...

[joe c]

If you think Pitt is 70% to win out right, why would you hedge?

I would rather have a 70% chance to win $1000 than a 100% chance to win ~$500.

[Ken_AA]

Who's cautious?

Most of us are just after the highest EV possible. You get that by not hedging.

Ther will also may be the possibility of a halftime middle (where you can hedge, but still have a small chance to win both bets), which I explained in one of the oter dozen threads on this topic.


On a side note to this, how come this forum doesnt have a mod do lock/delete repetative threads?

Ken

[chopstick]

[ QUOTE ]
I have no idea why people who are normally so cautious and so rational would suddenly decide to risk a $500 gauranteed win.

[/ QUOTE ]

Expected Value.

Also, gambool.

[sm1030]

You find me a sportsbook where I can get Miami +4.5 and I will definitely hedge.

Thats not going to happen so I'm throwing the dice and putting on the Steeler jersey Thursday night

[Blowup Doll]

[ QUOTE ]
You know, I see a lot of folks on here who never bet on sports blabbing away about how they're not hedging, and implying that hedging is somehow gutless given that Mansion has given us a "free" bet.

Now I don't know about you, but I don't routinely bet ~$500 on any game, let alone the first NFL game of the season when the starting QB has gone down. Basically, that is what you are doing, just to be clear. You could lock in a profit of about $500 by hedging, but instead you are gambling that $500 on Pitt to win. I have no idea why people who are normally so cautious and so rational would suddenly decide to risk a $500 gauranteed win.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's short-term thinking. Going after the highest EV is the right way to go.

[FreeOffersNow]

If you think you MIA is going to win, or that PITT won't cover the spread...by all means hedge the bet. But, to me at least, it makes no sense to hedge your bet if you think PITT will cover the spread...essentially by hedging you're putting potential winnings into an insurance policy. Also, it should be noted that the Steelers will be starting Charlie Batch (2-0 last season as Steelers' starter)...so it's not like just because Ben isn't playing they are going to get blown out.

[FeltBelt]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You know, I see a lot of folks on here who never bet on sports blabbing away about how they're not hedging, and implying that hedging is somehow gutless given that Mansion has given us a "free" bet.

Now I don't know about you, but I don't routinely bet ~$500 on any game, let alone the first NFL game of the season when the starting QB has gone down. Basically, that is what you are doing, just to be clear. You could lock in a profit of about $500 by hedging, but instead you are gambling that $500 on Pitt to win. I have no idea why people who are normally so cautious and so rational would suddenly decide to risk a $500 gauranteed win.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's short-term thinking. Going after the highest EV is the right way to go.

[/ QUOTE ]

Lol. Since this promotion will maybe come along once a year, if that, I think I'll lock in my wins rather go for a small bit of extra EV, kthxbye.