Turn call or raise

HighSteaks · #1 09-04-2006, 08:29 AM

I have emerged from another SSHE newb session hopfully the better off. So here goes. I am giving myself 15 outs here making my Pot Equity 2BB after villain bet the turn and making a raise on the turn the correct play. Wow, this could be miles out but I guess there is only one way to find out. Have I worked this out correctly or am I way off?

PokerRoom 0.50/1 Hold'em (9 handed) internettexasholdem.com

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG calls, 3 folds, Hero raises, 1 fold, Button calls, 2 folds, UTG calls.

Flop: (7.50 SB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
UTG bets, Hero calls, Button calls.

Turn: (5.25 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
UTG bets, Hero raises, Button folds, UTG calls.

Hielko · #2 09-04-2006, 08:39 AM

Raise is bad. Pot equity is not important. Only when you think there is a decent probability that a raise here will win the pot, you could consider a raise.

HighSteaks · #3 09-04-2006, 08:43 AM

So you only consider pot equity when deciding whether to call a bet?

Bona · #4 09-04-2006, 08:53 AM

IMHO- I call, not raise the turn. We are probably behind but pot odds gives us a call. Call bonus= if we catch one of our 15 outs we want both villians to stay in and pay us off.

Hielko · #5 09-04-2006, 08:56 AM

[ QUOTE ]
So you only consider pot equity when deciding whether to call a bet?

[/ QUOTE ]
Yes, when you raise you need to consider your equity (not pot equity!). If your equity is higher than 100/number of expected callers, then you can raise.

Ampelmann · #6 09-04-2006, 08:59 AM

To make this raise +EV you need a lot of fold equity of both players. For that you need a good read, especially on UTG. Is he capable of betting and folding the same street? Is he capable of folding a made hand at all? You need a good read to make this play.

If he is capable of folding, your raise may have set up a bluffing opportunity on the river if you miss. But again you need a good read.

Without a good read on both players it's better to call this turn. Let button pad the pot.

HighSteaks · #7 09-04-2006, 09:13 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
So you only consider pot equity when deciding whether to call a bet?

[/ QUOTE ]
Yes, when you raise you need to consider your equity (not pot equity!). If your equity is higher than 100/number of expected callers, then you can raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok, so if I had 15 outs to the nuts in a hand - with 3 opponents who were already in for a turn bet and were a cert to call a raise - then I could raise as this is EV+ ?

knockonwood · #8 09-04-2006, 09:14 AM

I call the here. Our over cards are not strong enough to spike a pair and win. I'd rather keep the button in to collect another bet on the river if a spade, A or 9 hits. UTG is also more likely to c/f the river if the spade hits, you bet, and he doesn't have one.

Ampelmann · #9 09-04-2006, 09:16 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Ok, so if I had 15 outs to the nuts in a hand - with 3 opponents who were already in for a turn bet and were a cert to call a raise - then I could raise as this is EV+?

[/ QUOTE ]
Right. With 15 outs your turn equity is about 32%, so with more than 2 contributors you can raise for value (assuming they all call the raise).

But also with less opponents a call can be +EV, when you have fold equity. Here your raise is a semi-bluff. You hope that all opponents fold.

HighSteaks · #10 09-04-2006, 09:21 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Ok, so if I had 15 outs to the nuts in a hand - with 3 opponents who were already in for a turn bet and were a cert to call a raise - then I could raise as this is EV+?

[/ QUOTE ]
Right. With 15 outs your turn equity is about 32%, so with more than 2 contributors you can raise for value (assuming they all call the raise).

But also with less opponents a call can be +EV, when you have fold equity. Here your raise is a semi-bluff. You hope that all opponents fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

He he, I get it, so pot equity for deciding whether to call a bet , EV+ for deciding whether to raise - Ok, thanks for your help, after the initial beatings I'm starting to enjoy Limit more and more [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]