NL50 6max: Can I call this preflop minraise?

[begbie100]

I've been struggling with preflop basics lately. I should know this by know, but meh.

Villain is 30/4/1.6 after 100 hands, so I'm pretty sure after that 3bet, that I'm against KK/AA. But it's only *"#*! minraise.. can I call this profitably hoping hitting straight/flush (draw)?

Prima Poker skin
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.25/$0.50
5 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $55.25
CO: $51.50
Button: $42.68
SB: $60.35
Hero: $49.50

Pre-flop: (5 players) Hero is BB with K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
2 folds, <font color="#cc0000">Button raises to $2</font>, SB folds, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $7</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Button raises to $13</font>, Hero...

[absoludicrous]

All century. Do a quick pot odds/ implied odds calculation, and realize how badly you could stack this [censored] if you nail the flop. But do realize, you'll have to hit HARD.

[Thrahl]

First, 100 is a small sample size he may just have been card dead. Second, for the love of god dont fold in this spot, ever. Your getting better than 5 to 1. Even if this is always QQ,KK,AA its still a call.

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 34.5860 % 34.22% 00.37% { AhKh }
Hand 2: 65.4140 % 65.05% 00.37% { QQ+ }

[begbie100]

thanks.

I'll need to start use pokerstove more, and do these math thingies [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[absoludicrous]

[ QUOTE ]
thanks.

I'll need to start use pokerstove more, and do these math thingies [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]


You don't even need that. Just look at the size of the pot, the type of flop you can hit, and make the call. Mini raising is terrible because you NEVER lay your opponent improper odds to call. Therefore, calling here is very correct.

[JackAll]

[ QUOTE ]
First, 100 is a small sample size he may just have been card dead. Second, for the love of god dont fold in this spot, ever. Your getting better than 5 to 1. Even if this is always QQ,KK,AA its still a call.

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 34.5860 % 34.22% 00.37% { AhKh }
Hand 2: 65.4140 % 65.05% 00.37% { QQ+ }

[/ QUOTE ]

This is not QQ with a 4% pfr nit. His entire raising range is JJ+/AK and maybe TT or AQ. So his 4-betting range is exactly AA/KK.

Not that I'm saying calling is wrong (tho my gut says it is), but take QQ out of his range if you want some maths to backup claims that calling is fine.

JA

[Sir Winalot]

[ QUOTE ]
equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 34.5860 % 34.22% 00.37% { AhKh }
Hand 2: 65.4140 % 65.05% 00.37% { QQ+ }

[/ QUOTE ]

Notice that this assumes you play the hand to the river, but you most likely won't be able to continue if you miss the flop.

[Megenoita]

I don't mind just folding. I think this is AA/KK, with about 75/25 for AA over KK. When you flop a K, are you just folding? Are you basically looking for a flush or Q J T? That's a very, very small % and you don't have the odds to go for it IMO. You're going to have to push all in on any FD board, and you'll go in as the dog. And an important consideration is how you're going to play assuming you get an ahf, khf, or AK flop. It's very tempting to get all your money in in those spots, even though you already determined he probably has AA/KK for most of his range.

Finally, it's generally wise to avoid situations where you don't know where you're at. Your pf call will give you okay odds, but you don't know what to do if you flop an ace (are you now ahead of KK, or behind AA?). You will flop a straight or a flush a couple %, and that's all you're truly hoping for. You will flop a flush draw AND make it by the river about 6% of the time--not that great. And you can't flop an OESD, only a gutshot, so when you don't flop a straight, you're again going to have to speculate with the worst hand.

There are just way too many bad situations that will develop. With your read, folding right away is best.

[munkey]

4% PFR over admittedly 100 hands is typically AQo+, AKo+ JJ+.
His reraising range is likely { AA, KK 70%, QQ 25%, JJ 5%}
i.e. there's 5% chance he is doing this with JJ I guess.

So you're most likely dominated - if you hit an ace or king or 2pairyou're beaten, any flopped flush/str8/draw or combo is what you need to hit as absoludricous says.

Implied odds don't look good - villan has put 30% of his stack in preflop - are we likely to hit a good flop more than 30% time?I dont think so.

I say fold and find a better spot to get his chips.

[begbie100]

Ok, so this wasn't so simple problem after all.. I'm confused. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]