Thread A: read ONLY thread A or B

alphatmw · #1 09-03-2006, 09:41 PM

this is a test out of curiosity about analyzing hands that are posted in this forum. please read and reply to ONLY thread A or B. if you've read both already, don't reply to either (at least, don't reply with any analysis).

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (8 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

MP1 ($42.25)
MP2 ($45.66)
CO ($104.72)
Button ($49.25)
SB ($23.83)
BB ($75.30)
Hero ($49.25)
UTG+1 ($13.25)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $0.25.
Hero raises to $2, 3 folds, CO calls $2, 2 folds, BB calls $1.50.

Flop: ($6.25) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $4, CO calls $4, BB folds.

Turn: ($14.25) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets $10, CO calls $10.

River: ($34.25) 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $33.24, Hero ??

what hand range does CO have?
what should Hero call with?

jk3a · #2 09-03-2006, 09:43 PM

BB folded the turn and Hero should have bet river.

Dan Bitel · #3 09-03-2006, 09:45 PM

dude, lead the river!!!!

I would call with AJ+.

He could have busted spades, a badly played set/2pair, and sometimes a donk with a lower ace.

Jamougha · #4 09-03-2006, 09:47 PM

Looks OK. Betting is probably better than checking at 50NL but inducing a bluff here isn't hopeless. Call the river.

Fallen Hero · #5 09-03-2006, 09:47 PM

I'd also call with AJ+ but I wouldn't bet the river.

Dan Bitel · #6 09-03-2006, 09:50 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I'd also call with AJ+ but I wouldn't bet the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

how come?

I think his range is mostly Ax and he checks behind with it a lot. Plus, IME, not as many people bluff a missed draw as we think, hence why IMO, vbing is nearly always better than inducing a bluff

Miyogi · #7 09-03-2006, 10:00 PM

I think villian has any ace or better and for some villians any king (not to mention lower hands that are bluffing). I think with AQ this is a bad way to play the hand but you should call. I think we should be betting 1/2-2/3 pot here with any ace. As played I call AJ or better.

Fallen Hero · #8 09-03-2006, 10:24 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'd also call with AJ+ but I wouldn't bet the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

how come?

I think his range is mostly Ax and he checks behind with it a lot. Plus, IME, not as many people bluff a missed draw as we think, hence why IMO, vbing is nearly always better than inducing a bluff

[/ QUOTE ]

I think he has a flush draw here a lot more than he has Ax and I think he folds Ax more than you. I also think he's likely to bet a missed draw.

PS: note all the "think" I really have no idea if this is right [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

Dan Bitel · #9 09-03-2006, 10:27 PM

FH,

I "think" you're wrong [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

alphatmw · #10 09-03-2006, 10:35 PM

to those who had Ax in the CO range... why would any Ax which isn't two pair pot the river??? that was never in my range for CO. we could chalk it up to terrible play but how likely is it? AT has a chance for a free showdown after UTG bets every street but the river, and decides to pot it?