MyTurn's week 2 CFB picks (9/7-9/9)

[MyTurn2Raise]

Ok...week 1 isn't done yet, but I cannot help myself when I see something too juicy

Purdue/Miami (OH) u53

-105 @ Pinny right now

Miami is coming off a 21-3 loss to Northwestern, which I watched. Purdue beat 1-AA Indiana State 60-35.

OK, so Purdue scored a ton verse Indiana State and gave up a ton, too. Purdue's defense looked like garbage last year, and, given the score of week 1 and the loses from last year's squad, is probably worse. Purdue under Tiller likes to run up some big points verse also ran schools. So, why on Earth do I like an under here?

Miami (OH) held the Wildcats to 21 points last week. 7 of those Northwestern points came off a blocked punt returned for a td. Northwestern had almost their entire offensive line with Sutton back. Though the Wildcat qb is not near what Painter brings for the Boilers, Purdue's offense is not a dynamo compared to Northwestern. Miami is prepared for a big 10 attack. Purdue's offense will be successful, but it will be a ball controlled (4-12 yard passes and runs) offense. Don't expect the huge plays that Purdue made verse the Sycamores of Indiana State. Expect the clock to run alot throughout Purdue's drives.

On the other side of the ball, Miami only put up 3 points verse Northwestern!!!! Trust me, they only deserved 3 points. I expect improvement to week 2 and the Boilers are a little worse than the Wildcats on D (side note- I cannot believe that is possible, but it is especially true with the defensive focus of Pat Fitzgerald). The big10 has been laying the smack down on the MAC and I expect that to carry over here.

I see a 28-17 game here....that is alot of leeway.

Still only a cursory review of the game, but the preliminaries make me want to get the bet down now.

7-2 ytd but still with a few week 1 pendings.

[Guyon]

MyTurn,

I must say that I enjoy your analyses and tend to agree on most of your lines.

Looking forward to your POTW's this season.

FWIW, Good first week for me [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[MyTurn2Raise]

Nevada +14.5 @ Arizona St

Last week...Fresno St 28 Nevada 19
Arizona St 35 N Arizona 14

Time for the sun devils to meet the Pistol offense. ASU only has one week prep time for the Wolfpack's unique 'Pistol' offense.

Nevada just had a huge game at Fresno St. The offense struggled a bit early, but found its flow after the first few drives. The Wolfpack moved the ball quite a bit and 19 points really doesn't do it justice. Nevada only had one game last year where it failed to put up 21+ points and only one of its last nine games was below 30. Besides never seeing the 'pistol' before, ASU's defense gave up 20 or more points to every team last year (except Temple in week 1 which doesn't count anyway). Holding the Lumberjacks down last week really doesn't impress anyone (especially considering they gave up 2 really big plays to a slow d-1AA school). The Sun Devils have a better d-line than last year, but the linebackers are a huge question mark. Matching up verse a different, sophisticated offense will be doubtful. Even with the shorter game clocks, expect the WolfPack to get about 24 points.

ASU will score and score and score and, to mix it up, score some more. Their powerful offense return nearly everyone from last year's squad. This is nothing new to the Wolfpack. Anyone that saw their last game saw Fresno St just dominate Nevada, but only put up 28. I see ASU getting about 34. a 4.5 point cushion is enough for me....I say Nevada +14.5 @ ASU

[MyTurn2Raise]

GATOR BAIT!

Florida -23.5 v UCF
Florida will not overlook a game with opponents who are high school buddies. This one is the woodshed game of the week.

last week, Central Florida had 105 rushing yards on 38 carries and 199 yards passing against Villanova!!! If you cannot average over 3 yards per carry against a lower division team, you have no prayer at running verse Florida. With no running game, there is no passing game. I don't care that UCF is bringing back all of last year's offensive line from an 8-5 team. There offense will not put back the Gators who post a top 5 defense and just stiffled Southern Miss last week (whom also had lots of returning starters from a decent offense). If UCF scores more than 14 you have a scoop. I'm predicting 7 points.

On the other hand, the Gators offense is ready to roll. They put up 34 last week and all of the news reports were about the disappointing performance of the Gators. They want to score more and are looking to diplay that offense. UCF's last 8 opponents went for 20+ points last year. 'Nova moved the ball decently verse UCF. Florida had no problem v Southern Miss IMO, and will have little problems again. Expect 34+ from the Gators.

[MyTurn2Raise]

2 pick game

Arizona +15 @ LSU
Arizona/LSU under 43.5

Now, I love LSU. I love LSU's homefield advantage, but I just don't see the offense killing Zona for a few reasons.

Yes, LSU brings back both Russell and Flynn at qb, Broussard and Vincent at tb, Hester at fb, Davis, Doucet, and Bowe at wr. The skill players are among the elite in the nation. However, this team lost 3 offensive linemen to the NFL. 3 of them! Sure, LSU got an early chance to get together verse LA-LAF, but playing a major conference opponent is something much different. Don't forget, LSU only averaged 375 yards and 29 points per game last year, which balanced the top SEC opponents and nobodies like N Texas and Appalachian St. Last week, Arizona's D shut down BYU's potent offense, which returned a majority of players from it's team that averaged 33 points and 466 yards per game. Mike and Mark Stoops really do have the Cats thinking defense, defense, defense. 9 starters return on d for Arizona and their stud linebackers are finally all healthy (a missing part of last year's squad). The depth upfront should torment the still gelling LSU line. LSU's speed and talent will get some points, but don't expect LSU to blow the roof off. I see 24 points from the Tigers.

Arizona isn't naked at the skill positions either. Willie Tuitama and Chris Henry are good. LSU's quickness should negate Steptoe quite a bit, but Zona will find a way to get a few scores. LSU brings in many new starters on D, but LSU simply reloads with all the talent they have. Expect Arizona to get some solid running plays, but stopped short of being able to beat LSU. 13 points for Arizona seems a likely outcome as the passing game will be held in check.

24-13 IMO, giving both of those lines some good value.

[iggymcfly]

I don't know about that Arizona pick. The way I see it, they just barely got by a pretty mediocre BYU team at home this week. If they were playing on the road, they probably would have lost. So, even if they would have only lost by 1 point if they played on the road, you're only making a 10-point adjustment for going from an above average mid-major to one of the Top 5 teams in the country.

You have some points about the Tiger attack lacking explosiveness but facing an SEC schedule week in week out is significantly tougher than facing a bad Pac-Ten team that will likely be rattled by the environment.

I think the under's a good play, but if I were to predict a final score, it would be something like 31-6 LSU. I just don't see a young team with that many talent gaps being able to play to peak capacity in Tiger Stadium for 60 minutes.

[dankhank]

myturn,

any comments about your illini? i know they struggled last year but i can't remember in what way. they are playing rutgers this week, who appears to be a real football team. their running game and offensive line was really impressive versus carolina. if the illini are major softies i can see laying the points, if they are competent team it's an easy pass.

[MyTurn2Raise]

funny....I was reading over at Fezzik's place how much he disliked Arizona in the first half BYU and how he was going to bet BYU to win at half. I saw the same game, but thought BYU was good and Arizona was better. I may be drinking some PAC10 koolaid (lord knows I was with Cal @ Tenn), but I think Arizona is top 25 barely. While I love LSU in the long run, I just think they will be stuck in first gear for awhile this Saturday. Eventually, I expect their talent to win out, but I am a big supporter of UofA right now.

[MyTurn2Raise]

[ QUOTE ]
myturn,

any comments about your illini? i know they struggled last year but i can't remember in what way. they are playing rutgers this week, who appears to be a real football team. their running game and offensive line was really impressive versus carolina. if the illini are major softies i can see laying the points, if they are competent team it's an easy pass.

[/ QUOTE ]

of course, I have an Illini opinion. I've never had a losing season betting on the Illini (since I enrolled in '97). If it wasn't for Illini football, I might not be in the black.

This game is a curious one. Illinois is going to be bad...real bad. The question is will they be competitive this year or will it be a repeat of last year. Illinois upgraded their offense tremendously. The running backs, Thomas, Halsey, and Mendenhall are great. The receivers, while young, are very quick and game changers, especially McPherson and Warren (Hudson has some speed for a white dude). The questions are whether Brasic, QB, has improved his ability to throw downfield (His arm looked much stronger on a few tosses verse Eastern Illinois), can 'Juice' Williams step in and give meaningful reps at QB as a freshman (this is the biggest recruit Illinois football has had in quite some time), and how much has the o-line improved. Last year, Brasic couldn't throw more than 15 yards down the field which made the Illini quite easy to defend. Juice looked ok verse Eastern; he has a gun and can run, but fumbled untouched and might not have a grasp on the whole offense yet. The o-line dominated Eastern, but they better dominate a 1-AA squad. In all, the Illini offense is better and might put points up a few times during the year, but they are nothing to be feared.

ON defense, the Illini are a lost cause. Their front 7 is too small and too slow. Derek Walker is a beast upfront, but has little support. Newcomer, Antonio Steele, looks like a real LB, but that is about all there. So, 2 guys of the front 7 are solid...yikes! The cornerbacks are supposed to be better with newcomer Vontae Davis. Last week, he got burned twice and he burned the opposition twice. He is a great athlete who brings necessary speed, but will be all or nothing. Given the time opposing QBs will have, it will be nothing more often than not. I think the cornerbacks for Illinois should have a 22 out of 100 rating for awareness in EA sports video games. The defense will probably be better than last year (near impossible to be worse), but I see opponents averaging over 30 points per game even with the new clock rules.

At their best, Illinois can pull in 5 wins this year. At their worst, 2 wins is all. However, they should be competitive in at least 7 games, which is a step up.

Onto the Rutgers analysis
The interesting thing is the Illini hoodwinked the Scarlet Knights last year and beat them 33-30 in OT. The line was -2 for Rutgers and Rutgers was my POTW. Rutgers was blowing the Illini out early and led by a few tds. However, Rutgers was stunned by Zook and Brasic in their first game. Without film on the new Illini, they didn't know quite what to expect. When the qb Brasic continued to run, run, and run, Rutgers was stunned. In addition, the Illini went no huddle a few times and Rutgers players started to 'fake' injuries to get play stoppages and slow the Illini down. Rutgers offense had its way the whole game, especially Leonard, but the momentum shift caught Rutgers. Somehow, the Illini stole a win. I'm sure this game is/was very embarrassing to Rutgers as they were easily a 17+ point better team.

That has me thinking that Rutgers will be after some revenge. A bowl team from a year ago that was hoodwinked in the Illini game. They will get at least 450 yards and 30 points. I cannot see the Illini doing much more than Carolina did against Rutgers. Add in that Rutgers players have played against a decent major conference foe, while the Illini are young and inexperienced in their first road game of the year.

I say Rutgers -12.5 v Illinois and recommend that to 2p2 readers.

Illinois is still a year away from being real competition. Rutgers should be a bowl team this year.

The only reason I hadn't posted on this game yet is that the line was originally -13.5 and moved a whole point within minutes of posting. I was trying to figure out why there was a swing towards the Illini. I'm still struggling in my search for that reason. The only thing I can think of is Zook really had the guys believing in themselves early last season and the Illini outperformed the first 3 games.

I think a fair line is Rutgers -15 to -16.

FYI-I went 7-4 on Illini games ATS last year.

EDIT: it's +109 at Pinny right now. I'm taking Rutgers ASAP and hoping that I might get a freeroll on a middle.

[MyTurn2Raise]

POTW Iowa -18 @ Syracuse

Iowa is going to compete for the big10 title and a possible BCS birth. Syracuse was last in the bigEast and getting worse.

Syracuse went 1-10 last year, averaging 13.8 points and 256 yards per game. The worst thing is that the biggest question coming into this season is the Orangemen have had to rebuild their offensive line with 3 newcomers. The depth here is severely lacking. The returning wrs are mediocre. They face an Iowa defense that, though it lost Greenway and Hodge, returns 7 starters and their entire defensive line. The Hawkeyes allowed 3.3 ypc last year while having 34.5 sacks and allowing 20 points per game. The newcomers on the Hawkeye D are all upperclassmen and should be ready to step in. The Orangemen are going to have big, big trouble scoring. Double digits would be a minor victory for the Syracuse 'O'. Syracuse only had 126 yards and 10 points verse Wake in week 1!!!!!

On the other side of the ball, teh Hawkeyes come back with heisman candidate Drew Tate and solid running back Albert Young. The o-line has 2 new starters, but both are very big. Kirk Ferentz has always had a solid running game and blocking scheme at Iowa sans the one year their top 5 running backs went down. Iowa averaged 30 points and 430 yards per game last year. Syracuse allowed 27 points and 370 yards per game last year. Unfortunately, the D lost its best players and looks to be worse headed into the year. The Cuse gave up over 4.3 ypc last year and this year's front 7 is worse! Look for Iowa to totally control the flow of the game through its zone rushing attack and play action passing game. Mix in a few big plays and the Hawks will light up the scoreboard. 34 points is my expectation here.

34-6 IMO....though I hate their school, take the Hawkeyes