stud 8 - split queens

[TStoneMBD]

Foxwoods 75/150 HOE 15 ante 25 bringin

couple folds
MP2 is a girl who plays pretty well and is very aggressive especially in early streets. her preflop raise means she has an ace up with any 2 cards buried in the whole.
MP3 is an internet kid who looks pretty solid and lurks on 2p2

3rd

MP2 Ad - xx COMPLETES
MP3 8h - xx CALLS
Hero Qs - 4sQh CALLS

4th

MP2 Ad 8s - xx BETS
MP3 8h 6s - xx calls
Hero Qs Th - 4sQh calls

5th

MP2 Ad 8s 9c - xx CHECKS-folds
MP3 8h 6s 5s - xx BETS-calls
Hero Qs Th Ac - raises

6th

MP3 8h 6s 5s Jc bets
Hero Qs Th Ac 9h CHECKS-calls

7th

Hero CHECK-calls

[mmcd]

Just fold this on 3rd. Especially given that you're against an A door and the pot will be at least 3-handed. You have a snowball's chance in hell of scooping this one, and excellent chance of getting scooped yourself. Same goes for 4th. If I somehow got there, I'd consider continuing if one of them bricked off, but being as they both caught low cards, it's a muck.

You're lines on 5th and 6th makes no sense together. The raise on 5th is fine, but given that 865 didn't reraise you, checking to him on 6th when he bricks is no good. Bet 6th, and check/call the river, unless you think there's a good chance he's on 2 pair in which case I'd risk a bet/call if I don't improve.

[Raul Wong]

Whenever an Ace raises on 3rd you have to fold your big pair. Basically not only could you find yourself in bad shape but you are going to end up just calling down to hopefully win half the pot. There are going to be a ton of situations where you are going to be scooped, and even when you do win half you are going to make a very small profit as you almost never scoop the whole pot in this situation.

4th - I would probably fold here against and two players who caught good. They didnt catch perfect but they definitly caught good and there is a very good possiblity that you could find yourself in the middle of a raise war with only a pair of Qs.

5th- Raising here doesnt really accomplish much. You still have one pair and if the asian lady is going to play it wont matter if its for one bet or two. There is also a very good chance that you will be three bet on 5th. With one pair of Qs against a player who is free rolling against you this is not a very good spot.

6th and 7th are fine as from that point forward you gotten showdown and hope you win half.

[TStoneMBD]

im a stud 8 novice so my opinion is very humble but i think its a huge mistake to be folding big pairs like queens when they are so likely to be the best high hand on 3rd facing 2 lows. the lady with the ace is unlikely to have another ace buried. if she makes a bigger pair then me its because she mades open aces and i can easily fold. i thought this is how the game was supposed to be played, make sure you have the best high hand to start and go from there. how can you expect to play low hand vs low hand all the time and make profit?

raul, the lady isnt going to call 2 bets on 4th drawing to a 4 card 8 against a made 8-6. raising eliminates her from the pot and protects my high hand.

mmcd, maybe youre right that my raise/check line isnt consistent. i did think about that myself. if the opponent had a low he would have had to of 3bet 5th right? especially if he has a straight draw to compliment it.

here is an equity calc:

6s 5s Jc 2c 8h 6h 374 374 1186 0 546 0 0 0.415
Qs 4s Ac Qh Th 9h 640 1186 374 0 0 0 0 0.585

even if villain has the best case scenario for me, a pair with a 4 card low with no straight draw im only a 58/41 favorite. there isnt a whole lot of equity in betting here.

when he coldcalls an 8 facing an A on 3rd its very likely hes either starting with a 3 card straight or an 8 with an ace in the hole. if he started with a 3 card straight he now either has 5s and 6s for 2 pair or he has a pair and a 7 making him a pair, a low draw and an OESD. if this is the case, here is his equity:

6s 5s Jc 8h 7h 6h 608 608 952 0 546 0 0 0.527
Qs 4s Ac Qh Th 9h 523 952 608 0 0 0 0 0.473


because our equity is so close and im facing a position in which case i might be raised i think checking is better. also realize that if he has 1 pair and a 4 card low hes very likely going to bet 6th street for me.



------------



7s Ad Jh 148163 258482 241492 26 55768 25522 111 0.444
5s 4c 2c 203659 241492 258482 26 217021 10205 111 0.556


a hand as powerful as 542 with 2 clubs is only a coin flip against an ace with 2 garbage cards. this would suggest that when an ace up raises that you should fold 5s4c2c because the best case scenario is that he has nothing and youre a coin flip. the worst case scenario is that he has a pair of aces or a powerful low draw.

with that in mind, when an ace up raises, what can you possibly call with? you advise that i fold a pair of queens to an ace up but its evidently pretty borderline to call a raise with a 3 card low facing an ace as well. does that mean whenever anyone gets dealt an ace up they can raise with impunity and noone can play a pot with them unless they have a monster?

i did an equity calc with QQ4 facing AJ7 and a 3 card low. i have about 38% equity. with dead money in the pot the call is +ev assuming there arent any reverse implied odds. if you feel there are reverse implied odds in this situation please try to explain them for my betterment.

[adanthar]

TStone,

I suck at this game shorthanded, but I think *once the 3 low calls* you should probably fold. The reason is that you're either going to be playing very defensively the whole way down, or trying to win a small pot when he bricks fourth and you push him off, running the risk of the ace actually having something this time. You're also not helped by the fact that it's obvious what you have. However, I might well be wrong with the antes being as high as they are.

If you were heads up this wouldn't be a contest and I'd just laugh at everyone here as nits. You don't fold a high pair every time an ace automatically completes with any two heads up! That's a billion times worse than the razz thread - at least you know you're a dog there, whereas here you're a favorite heads up even if the ace has a three low.

I like the raise on fifth BTW, if it has a good chance of folding asian lady's one pair + crappy 3 low type hand.

[Raul Wong]

In general how do you think you can profitably play split Qs against an Ace in the door and another low card? Its very hard! You are basically going to find yourself in situations where you are calling, sometimes multipe, bets against dangerous boards. Even if the pot was HU do you think someone with an Ace in the door is going to slow down against someone with a Q in the door? You are going to be bombed the whole way down. In most cases you will either make a desperate call down for half the pot, or sometimes get scooped. There are going to be very few occasions where you are going to scoop the pot and even when you do you are not going to max your value because at some point when the Ace realizes he is behind he will take some freecards, and or you wont have the oppurtunity to bet into a dnagrous board(something like a small two pair)

[ QUOTE ]
raul, the lady isnt going to call 2 bets on 4th drawing to a 4 card 8 against a made 8-6. raising eliminates her from the pot and protects my high hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, if the asian lady has sometihng nice in the hole and is drawing to a smooth 8 or something she definitly might come along for two. On the flipside if she has nothing she will just fold for one bet anyways. My thought was that if she has coming, she isnt moving, but if she doesnt have anything she is just going to fold anyways. ALSO, and more importantly raising on 5th really opens yourself up to a re-raise which is very likely in my opinion.

You are right she can definitly peel with something stupid and lower your equity but I would guess that she is either coming for one or two bets, or folding regardless because she has nothing.

[ QUOTE ]
even if villain has the best case scenario for me, a pair with a 4 card low with no straight draw im only a 58/41 favorite. there isnt a whole lot of equity in betting here.

when he coldcalls an 8 facing an A on 3rd its very likely hes either starting with a 3 card straight or an 8 with an ace in the hole. if he started with a 3 card straight he now either has 5s and 6s for 2 pair or he has a pair and a 7 making him a pair, a low draw and an OESD. if this is the case, here is his equity:

6s 5s Jc 8h 7h 6h 608 608 952 0 546 0 0 0.527
Qs 4s Ac Qh Th 9h 523 952 608 0 0 0 0 0.473


because our equity is so close and im facing a position in which case i might be raised i think checking is better. also realize that if he has 1 pair and a 4 card low hes very likely going to bet 6th street for me.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, I found it really weird that you didnt get three jacked on 5th. This most likely means that he has paired his hand. But then why would he bet 6th? At that point I would put you on much more than just Qs so I would have taken a free card there if I was him and I didnt have a made low yet. Simple because a pair of 6s or whatever and a straight draw is probably a small dog to queens up.

[ QUOTE ]
7s Ad Jh 148163 258482 241492 26 55768 25522 111 0.444
5s 4c 2c 203659 241492 258482 26 217021 10205 111 0.556


a hand as powerful as 542 with 2 clubs is only a coin flip against an ace with 2 garbage cards. this would suggest that when an ace up raises that you should fold 5s4c2c because the best case scenario is that he has nothing and youre a coin flip. the worst case scenario is that he has a pair of aces or a powerful low draw.

with that in mind, when an ace up raises, what can you possibly call with? you advise that i fold a pair of queens to an ace up but its evidently pretty borderline to call a raise with a 3 card low facing an ace as well. does that mean whenever anyone gets dealt an ace up they can raise with impunity and noone can play a pot with them unless they have a monster?

i did an equity calc with QQ4 facing AJ7 and a 3 card low. i have about 38% equity. with dead money in the pot the call is +ev assuming there arent any reverse implied odds. if you feel there are reverse implied odds in this situation please try to explain them for my betterment.

[/ QUOTE ]

The problem with your anaylsis here is that these sims are a reflection of what would happen if the hand was played out to the end. At times a premium hand like 542 can make a hand that scoops even a pair of split aces. You can easily take slightly the worse of it on 3rd and 4th to try to improve to a hand that will scoop and have your opponent calling big bets on 5th, 6th, and 7th when you are in much better shape. Basically what I am saying is that the sims are deceiving as the hand plays out much differently than the even money sims would suggest.

I also believe the same is true for a pair of Qs. On the surface it may seem like you are pushing a small edge but what happens when they make a straight or flush? Or a pair of Aces? Or what happens when they both make lows on 6th and they are jamming and you are caught in between. The optimul way to play big pairs is in a HU situation as in general when played multiway you are going to lose much more when you are scooped than you are going to win when you escape with half.

[Raul Wong]

[ QUOTE ]
You don't fold a high pair every time an ace automatically completes with any two heads up!

[/ QUOTE ]

You are correct, not everytime...but when you are playing full ring you fold just about everytime. The problem is that you are barely a favorite and your hand is sooo vunerable. You are going to get pounded by the ace. I have said it like 18 times already in this thread but you are going to put yourself in a sitatuion where you are calling down hoping to win half the pot. This is not a good situation. If someone is raising with some junk like AJ7 you can be damn sure they certainly going to give up easily. You are calling down for nothing...errr, I mean the antes!

[Bremen]

[ QUOTE ]
you advise that i fold a pair of queens to an ace up but its evidently pretty borderline to call a raise with a 3 card low facing an ace as well

[/ QUOTE ]
The difference is that with a pair of queens you will frequently be playing defense (you'll either win a small pot early when the low bricks, or wind up calling big bets for half the pot). A low hand will be able to play later streets much more aggresively.

[TStoneMBD]

the equity calcs calculate the ev of each hand. this includes the value of those hands scooping pots and such. if youre going to say that 245 has implied odds vs Axx then fine, but to say that it can scoop pots making its value higher is flawed from what i can tell, because the equity calcs have factored that.

also, from my limited experience i have found that a pair of queens scoops a low draw quite regularly, or you force them to fold on 5th street once theyve gone brick brick. that is why an overpair is the favorite over a 3 card low, because it scoops the pot.

[Raul Wong]

[ QUOTE ]
the equity calcs calculate the ev of each hand. this includes the value of those hands scooping pots and such. if youre going to say that 245 has implied odds vs Axx then fine, but to say that it can scoop pots making its value higher is flawed from what i can tell, because the equity calcs have factored that.

also, from my limited experience i have found that a pair of queens scoops a low draw quite regularly, or you force them to fold on 5th street once theyve gone brick brick. that is why an overpair is the favorite over a 3 card low, because it scoops the pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, what I was trying to get across is that a hand that has scoop potential can be played more profitably on later streets. Obviously the sims show the actual value of the two hands but when you play your hand better thna your opponent players his/hers then you are going to make money. You goal is obviously lose the min when behind and win the max when ahead.

Big pairs can certainly be played profitably, but certainly not against someone who has an Ace in the door or multi way against two or more opponents.