Folding a better hand on the turn

Andy Ross · #1 09-01-2006, 08:04 AM

BB is in the region of 35/20/3. In the last 4 orbits, he's given up his BB each time to my steal attempt. My play in this hand is based on the supposition that he is itching to play back at me.

HU, with position, I tend to cap a pair against a resteal from an aggressive opponent. It tends to make postflop play easier for me.

I bet this flop 100% of the time (often folding 6 outers like KQ), and the raise is a call. He most likely holds an ace, but is capable of making this move without one against a very aggressive stealer (which I have been). I can still call the turn bet with my 6 outs, but I opted to raise. Is the possibility of folding a better hand on the turn worth the risk?

PokerStars 3/6 Hold'em (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
2 folds, Hero raises, 1 fold, BB 3-bets, Hero caps, BB calls.

Flop: (8.33 SB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, BB raises, Hero calls.

Turn: (6.16 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB bets, Hero raises

W. Deranged · #2 09-01-2006, 09:22 AM

You are getting so smoked on this hand.

When you cap pre-flop and villain check-raises a dry, A-high flop, you are almost always creamed. I can understand the rationale for the cap, but it is assuming a lot to think your opponent really is just trying to make a 3-5 BB move on you here. He might well three-bet to "play back at you," but how often is he really check-raising without some kind of hand?

As played, you should call the flop check-raise and fold the turn.

A FAR more effective way to play this hand, though, would have been to go passive. If your opponent is playing back at you, let him hang himself. There is no need to take on so much extra exposure with a hand that is probably 50/50 pre-flop even if your opponent is playing crap. Getting aggressive will just allow your opponent to get tons of value from you, or it might encourage him to bluff further and fold the best hand, or you might shut down future bluff attempts. All with a hand that is giving reverse implied odds and is not a huge favorite.

So how about calling the pre-flop three-bet and then calling down. You can get to a showdown that way for 2.5 bets instead of risking the 3.5-5 you are committing with your line.

ejay · #3 09-01-2006, 12:53 PM

I think that this hand is overplayed. I dont like that pre flop cap and i hate the turn raise.
W.D. you think he should fold this turn getting 7-1 and having 6 outs?

Andy Ross · #4 09-01-2006, 01:01 PM

[ QUOTE ]
...how often is he really check-raising without some kind of hand?

[/ QUOTE ]

Never. I'm never ahead in this situation. I'm miles behind, but I know that my pot equity is in the region of 15% on the turn (I disagree with you on folding the turn BTW: I think I almost always have 6 clean outs, which is enough). For a raise to be worthwhile, I need to be able to make him fold a hand that's *way* better than mine.

If he holds 77-KK, my turn raise can induce him to make a huge mistake by folding (he'd fold 85% equity in a 9BB pot). I think that it's the magnitude of this mistake that might make this a reasonable move. I did a few rough sums, and I think that if he has an aceless hand (that he'll fold) about 10% of the time, it's a more profitable move than just calling and capturing (on average) 15% of the pot.

I'm unsure about this hand, and I don't make a habit of doing this sort of thing. I did find it an interesting hand to play. By the turn, I was in a position where I had narrowly enough equity to call with; excellent fold equity against a small portion of the villain's range; and zero fold equity against the rest.

shpanko · #5 09-01-2006, 01:06 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I think that this hand is overplayed. I dont like that pre flop cap and i hate the turn raise.
W.D. you think he should fold this turn getting 7-1 and having 6 outs?

[/ QUOTE ]

The idea is that our opponent thinks he is crushed because of the line we took and so yes he will incorrectly fold his KQ, KJ, etc with our line. The problem though, as deranged has said, is that by raising we shut down his bluff attempts and lose more money against better hands.

The pf cap is ok and calling the flop c/r is also ok. Once he bets the turn though if you are really showdown bound just calldown from the turn c/r. If he's bluffing he'll likely bet turn and maybe even the river. THis charges us less to draw and lets the opponent continue bluffing.

However once he c/r'es the flop after we cap pf I would just fold the turn UI. Otherwise I feel we're putting too much money in with a crappy hand. I don't think there is any way he is ever folding an ace here. However, you could possibly fold a hand like 67 or maybe (very slight chance) fold a hand like 77 or 88. But against a guy who you say is pissed you've been stealing his blind I don't think you are getting many folds.

ejay · #6 09-01-2006, 01:14 PM

I think that calling the turn is still right. You have 6 clean outs almost all the time and you are getting 7-1 on your call. I agree that he is not folding an ace and that he will likely bet the river so if a 3 or 5 comes you will likely win at least 2 more bb.

Bubbles · #7 09-01-2006, 01:21 PM

[ QUOTE ]
HU, with position, I tend to cap a pair against a resteal from an aggressive opponent. It tends to make postflop play easier for me.

[/ QUOTE ]
I see this argument in every other thread. What's up with that? The easiest way to play the hand would be to muck it, but that doesn't make it correct.

Also, if you love variance more than sex, keep pushing that tiny edge you have on overcards.

W. Deranged · #8 09-01-2006, 03:19 PM

In retrospect I think you are probably right Ejay. This becomes a marginally profitable call on the turn as played, because we have 6 outs almost totally clean, and some implieds, and might even see villain check to us and get to showdown a winner.

But the only reason we end up calling is because we bloated the pot before hand. I think the more key decision comes earlier in the hand.

Bubbles · #9 09-01-2006, 03:33 PM

This hand was severely misplayed on every single street.

Kwaz · #10 09-01-2006, 06:01 PM

Call the turn.

I can live with the first two streets.