5/10 Razz... am I still live on 6th?

[tpir]

Villain has been fairly active during all of the games (this took place at a HORSE table). He does not seem to be particularly good but is def. not passive.

Seat 1: [x x] K ___bring-in___ fold
Seat 2: [x x] J ___fold
Seat 3: [x x] T ___fold
Seat 4: [x x] 3 ___folds
Seat 5: [x x] 3 ___folds
Hero: [2 3] 5 ___complete___re-raise
Villain: [x x] 6 ___raises___call

Seems pretty standard with the 3's dead and my being ahead (for now)

4th:
Hero: [23]57 ___bet
Villain: [xx]68 ___call

Duh.

5th:
Hero: [23]577 ___call
Villain: [xx]68A ___bet

Kind of worried he has a draw to a 6 but I can't see folding now.

6th:
Hero: [23]577Q ___???
Villain: [xx]68A4 ___bet

I am getting almost 8:1 but I might be drawing dead. And if I catch good I am obligated to payoff so my effective odds are about half what they appear to be if I am behind. That being said... he might have paired along the way here. Easy trip to 7th streetville?

thanks,
tpir

[thomasdrool]

He sounds like he might be at about my level. Someone who only started playing razz a couple of weeks ago when it started on Stars but who has read SOP and has a strong general poker background. I'd raise it up again on 3rd if I had a six with a 3 and another bike card. Virtually coinflipping against three wheelcards that include a three and favourite over everything else. So he prolly hasn't got 63 with another wheel card. No methinks you not drawing dead. Have to call and keep him honest with a six or better.

[Scary_Tiger]

Got to call here. River a hand plz.

[bugstud]

ideally he paired the ace. If he didn't you're in rough shape, but are still probably live.

[adanthar]

I would call this, and then call seventh as long as I hit *anything* because he's guaranteed to have one pair here and possibly two.

[tpir]

Thanks for the responses guys... 6th street is the main place I stumble in this game... I figured it was close enough but when I made Q's up on the river I became clouded by the results and thought it might have been a stupid call. Darn results...

[redsoxsalty]

[ QUOTE ]
I would call this, and then call seventh as long as I hit *anything* because he's guaranteed to have one pair here and possibly two.

[/ QUOTE ]

his 3rd street raise smells of A2 or A3 in the hole. i think you have to call 6th, but keep in mind that your board looks very weak, and he'll probably bet 7th regardless of his hand.

[Bill King]

i think its a relatively good chance he paired his A or 4.

you improve pretty decently with an A,4 or 6 while getting 8-1 assuming we're drawing live.

how did the river line go?

if he checks to you, do you bet regardless? i dont think 6th is too bad b/c he's obligated to bet this board into you.

[PokrLikeItsProse]

[ QUOTE ]
his 3rd street raise smells of A2 or A3 in the hole.

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually, no it doesn't. If the villain is fairly active and suspects the hero would steal often in this spot, then his raise smells of merely a three-card 7 or better. His failure to cap suggests that he probably doesn't have A2 or A3 in the hole (and three treys being accounted for makes it that much more unlikely that he started with A3.

Hero is only drawing dead if villain has exactly 23, 35, or 25 in the hole. There are 3 ways to have 23, 3 ways to have 35, and 9 ways to have 25. If he started with a 3-card 6, there are 72 possible combinations he could have and an additional 26 if he might have started with a 3-card 7. I will guess-timate that you 15 times you are drawing dead and at least 57 times, you are at about 4.9:1 to win the hand.

Let's say that there are eight big bets in the pot on sixth and that you will only call on the river if you make a 7, so you will call on the river 9 out of of 35 times. Let's also say that your opponent would raise on third with any three-card six. You lose a bet on 26 river cards. Nine times, you make a hand. Of that time, you lose two bets 15/72 times you are drawing dead. 57/72 times, you lose two bets 83% of the time and gain two bets plus what is in the pot, or about ten big bets total 17% of the time.

So your average loss is 0.85 bets if you call. Of course, this assumes that he will bet and you will call, or you will bet and he will check-call, if you draw out on him, so your loss is probably going to be slightly higher because your winnings are overestimated.

You should lose a bit less if he might have started with a three-card seven or three-card eight. Unless your opponent would raise on third with hands like (A6)6 or (AT)6, then this looks like a clear fold on sixth.

Does anyone want to check my math/reasoning or to work it out for if he has a tighter raising range on third?

[thomasdrool]

I wouldn't raise with A2. I would with 23 or 35 though. Against me you'd only be drawing dead to 25. Anyone disagree with this 3rd street strategy?