44 - good time for a squeeze?

[mbman]

Final table of a 22+4$ MTT at Full Tilt.
Overall a fairly aggressive final table, quite a bit of raising and a few reraises every now and then.

Button har stolen quite a few times, he definitely doesn´t need a hand to raise here.

SB has been aggressive towards my blind and is doing his share of stealing. However, he has not called very many raises which makes me believe he needs some kind of hand here.

I pick up 44 in the BB and go into the tank. I am the small stack, and if I take this pot down w/o showdown I will be VERY happy. However, the pot will be around 115k if I push and only 47k more to call for villains, which they might be tempted to do. However, I do believe I have SOME fold equity, people have shown a lack of willingness to call reraises or pushes at the table, ie reluctance to gamble for lots of chips. If they call and lose, they will obviously be in bad shape.

So - fold or push? Calling can´t be right, or anyone like a stop and go against 2 villains?

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Tournament
Blinds: t4000/t8000
(Ante: t1000)
5 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: t123894
CO: t226218
Button: t103840
SB: t115680
Hero: t73868

Pre-flop: (5 players) Hero is BB with 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
2 folds, <font color="#cc0000">Button raises to t24000</font>, SB calls t20000 <font color="aaaaaa">(pot was t41000)</font>, Hero ??

[mornelth]

SB OOP call for 20% of his stack = Aces.

You can't play your 4's for set value, so fold.

[AceLuby]

20% of the buyin goes to the house? That sux.

[mornelth]

[ QUOTE ]
20% of the buyin goes to the house? That sux.

[/ QUOTE ]

A buddy of mine (pretty good player, actually) asked me if he should play in a live $100 STT in a casino. I asked him what's the house take - he said $20 of the $100...

I suggested he may be better off buying $100 worth of lottery tickets... [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[mbman]

Actually, maybe it was 24+2 or 22+2.

[sdplayerb]

they are both getting well over 2-1, you have little fold equity.
stop n go doesn't work too well against two players.
if the sb didn't call, or you had quite a bit more chips, you'd push.
this is a fold.

[dfbuzzbeater]

Yeah it's a fold...I hate when this happens, because as soon as the guy raises on the button I'm like "oooh baby I'm gonna come over the top and hopefully take this one down..." and then the SB calls and I'm just like "[censored]! ONE TIME! LET ME TAKE ONE DOWN ONE TIME!" Ok maybe I'm not that intense, but ya gotta fold this one. Sucks with your M of ~4, but you gotta do it.

[Foucault]

Oof. This is a lot closer than people are assuming. It really depends on your read of SB. Despite the good odds he is getting, it sounds like the OR is going to be FOS a lot of the time and possibly worried about SB's flat call behind him, so if you can get it HU with SB, there will be a lot of dead money in the pot and you will need to win les than one time in three to show a profit. I wouldn't worry too much about the OR, there's a pretty good chance he folds. SB calls 99% of the time, though, so you just need to put him on a range and calculate your equity. If you think he's pretty much always slowplaying a big pair, then you can fold. This probably is a fold, but I think it's a lot closer than most people assume, as you DO have FE against the OR.

[nath]

it's actually a 24+2. what it really depends on is your read of SB's cold call

[Matador225]

I think you need a stone cold read on the SB to think about squeezing here. Against an average player its an easy fold.