B&M, short stack, bubble push or fold

[maltaille]

Hi all, long time listener, first time caller, hoping I can get some opinions on a situation that occurred in a recent B&M tournament.

$50 rebuy satellite to a $1500 tournament, 80 runners, top 9 win seats, 10th gets $450. Not online, so no hand history sorry, but let me set the scene.

12 players left, blinds at 2k/4k, two tables of six each. I have 9k, making me short stack. Average stack is roughly 25k. There are two other players close in chips, each with no more than 12k, one on my table (only seen him for the half dozen hands I've been on this table, during which time he hasn't played a hand), one on the other table (tight, thinking player I've been at a table with for a couple of hours previous, who last hand walked over to check out our stacks, and whom I think will credit me with being similarly tight and thinking based on our play together). I don't know where the other table's short stack is relative to the blinds, but the second short stack on my table is UTG.

I'm in the SB, folded to me (one of my previous hands at this table has been folded to the BB, in that case the other small stack), I have 7k left after putting in my small blind. I hold QTo. It's six-handed, blinds will come around again in five more hands. There's about 7 minutes left in this level, but 90% of hands are push or fold, so hands have been going quickly, and the blinds may or may not be up to 3k/6k by the time they get to me again, not that it matters much. BB is a large stack, the table is upfront about thinking he's a donkey who's gotten lucky, but regardless, it's 5k into a 13k pot for him to call, and I think it's likely he's going to do so unless he has a real dog. I've seen him play one pot, but have no read on him.

What's my move? Good situation for a push, or fold and wait for a better opportunity while hoping the other short stacks feel pressured to make a move in the next few hands and it doesn't work out for them? Why? Appreciate all thoughts!

[0evg0]

I think this is a push.

We're about 56/44 if we credit BB with calling with the top 90% of hands, and I think if we win here we're maybe 50% to get a seat (does that sound reasonable?). So 56 x 50 = 28%

Are you going to outlast 3 more people folding here 28% of the time? I'd guess no.

[Gonso]

First thing - if your stack is this low, I hope that it's because you lost an all in where you had someone barely covered. If you arrived here due to the blinds, I think you're waiting way to long to start pushing.

Second, damn straight I'd push. K2, push. Q6, push. J8, push. 74, push. You said the average stack is around 25k, so you are still in a position to at least put a sizeable dent in anyone who calls and loses. The BB will probably call with any kind of holding, but it's not automatic for a lot of players on the bubble. Remember, everyone's in bad shape, and anything could happen before the blinds go around again. The BB knows that. And, as the above poster mentioned, your hand isn't that bad against the top hands, and a decent player in the BB isn't likely to be that stringent (getting 2.6 to 1 facing an all in from a virtually dead, player? An instant call for me with almost any hand, maybe a little less so on the bubble here. 87, calling).

You're nealry dead here - the fact that everyone else at the table is too shouldn't matter. The good news is that since you're all shortstacked, a couple aggressive moves and a little luck could actually put you in contention to win the whole thing! Consider the possibilities:

1) You push, BB folds. You get $4,000, vastly improving your stack to $13,000, while making you more dangerous to the other players at the table.

2) You push, BB calls, you win. You get $9,000, vastly improving your stack to $18,000, while making you extremely dangerous to the other players at the table.

3) You push, you lose, and get yourself a sandwich.

You're really only two showdowns away from the chip lead. The smallish stacks of the remaining players hints to me that folks are being overly cautious here. My instinct is that I'm playing hungry hippo and pushing in any decent spot, and not just once either.

I'm looking for a top 3 finish, not number 9, and if things go your way that's very possible here.

[Jigsaws]

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I'm looking for a top 3 finish, not number 9, and if things go your way that's very possible here.

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It's a satellite with flat payouts, right? It makes sense to go for number 9.

[tailspin4540]

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[ QUOTE ]
I'm looking for a top 3 finish, not number 9, and if things go your way that's very possible here.

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It's a satellite with flat payouts, right? It makes sense to go for number 9.

[/ QUOTE ]

True, but OP is currently 12th and is out of time (the BB could be half his stack at least when it comes around to him again).

Easy push.

[Gonso]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'm looking for a top 3 finish, not number 9, and if things go your way that's very possible here.

[/ QUOTE ]
It's a satellite with flat payouts, right? It makes sense to go for number 9.

[/ QUOTE ]


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Sorry, I definately missed the flat payouts, that's completely another matter. Still, I'm pushing in this particular case - and you will certainly have far greater fold equity here because of that payout structure.

All the other stuff about doubling up again doesn't apply here, disregard all that.

[runout_mick]

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What's my move? Good situation for a push, or fold and wait for a better opportunity while hoping the other short stacks feel pressured to make a move in the next few hands and it doesn't work out for them?

[/ QUOTE ]

I hate hate hate this spot.

I think I try a modified stop 'n go here. It's not a common situation, but I think it may apply here.

I complete the blind, and call a push preflop if needed.
If bb checks preflop, I push the flop.

I think we have more fold equity this way. He's more likely to fold on the flop to a 5k bet into an 8k pot postflop than he is to fold to a preflop push.

Thoughts?

[AceLuby]

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What's my move? Good situation for a push, or fold and wait for a better opportunity while hoping the other short stacks feel pressured to make a move in the next few hands and it doesn't work out for them?

[/ QUOTE ]

I hate hate hate this spot.

I think I try a modified stop 'n go here. It's not a common situation, but I think it may apply here.

I complete the blind, and call a push preflop if needed.
If bb checks preflop, I push the flop.

I think we have more fold equity this way. He's more likely to fold on the flop to a 5k bet into an 8k pot postflop than he is to fold to a preflop push.

Thoughts?

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't like it. I prefer to just push PF because there are so many things that can go wrong w/ a stop n go.

1)we call PF and he pushes, bad situation for us
2)he checks we push the flop and he calls w/ any piece of it
3)he checks we push the flop and he folds when we hit a piece of it

The only way I see this to be better is if we flop nothing, push and he folds a better nothing, which I don't see happening all that often. I'd rather just push it in now, maximize my value when I hit and have the BB make a decision w/ the least amount of information available.

[0evg0]

If we complete PF/push flop Villain is most likely never folding the flop if he makes a pair/has A-high. So basically we're giving up our PF advantage in case he has KX and we can get him to fold it on the flop.

No good.

[sdplayerb]

you are kind of screwed here. did you not have a chance to push something previous to this, like when UTG? i would have pushed anything UTG.

You are going to get called, but QT is a better than average hand, so you have to push. The other players aren't going to bust before you do.

But your mistake was not pushing when you had folding equity UTG or UTG+1.