Pride OWGP 9/10

[BriMc]

Wanderlei Silva vs Mirko Filipovic
Wanderlei Silva +157
Mirko Filipovic -167
Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira vs Josh Barnett
Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira -191
Josh Barnett +178

I'm thinking about putting a few units on Cro-Cop and on Barnett.

I just don't think the rematch will be any different in the Wandy-CroCop fight. I see Mirko punishing him with body shots, and Silva's wildness really leaving him open to a huge left high kick. CroCop's foot work and positioning are far superior, and his takedown defense is probably the best in the world. He's far to strong for Wandy to clinch and throw knees or dirty box with.

I think Barnett's wrestling is a terrible matchup for Nog's Ju-Jitsu/Boxing. While Nog has excellent technical standup, he has no knockout power, and no takedown defense to keep the fight on its feet and score points. Nog will spend the whole fight on his back getting pounded. The only way Nog can win is to catch Barnett in a sub, which no one has ever done. Getting Barnett at +178 is good value, imo.

I've never bet Pride before, so I'll probably take it easy, 2-3 units on each.

What do you guys think?

[gusmahler]

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I just don't think the rematch will be any different in the Wandy-CroCop fight. I see Mirko punishing him with body shots, and Silva's wildness really leaving him open to a huge left high kick. CroCop's foot work and positioning are far superior, and his takedown defense is probably the best in the world. He's far to strong for Wandy to clinch and throw knees or dirty box with.

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I like your reasoning here. Silva is far too wild and CroCop is the best counter-puncher in MMA. He will punish Silva's mistakes. CroCop's biggest loss was against Fedor. But CroCop fought that as a guy afraid of being taken down. He doesn't have to worry about that against Silva. (That said, I'm a huge CroCop mark, so I'm biased).

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I think Barnett's wrestling is a terrible matchup for Nog's Ju-Jitsu/Boxing. While Nog has excellent technical standup, he has no knockout power, and no takedown defense to keep the fight on its feet and score points. Nog will spend the whole fight on his back getting pounded. The only way Nog can win is to catch Barnett in a sub, which no one has ever done.

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Technically speaking, Cro Cop submitted him in their first fight. But I guess you're not counting that [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img].

I don't know about this. If anyone can submit Barnett, it's Nog. And Barnett won't be able to submit Nog. So the questino is whether or not he can deal punishment to Nog while on the ground. I haven't seen great GnP from Barnett since he joined Pride (and I never saw him in UFC). So I'd pick Nog. Though I'm not too confident on that pick.

[swope]

crocop should win. hes getting some wind under his wings. his crippling of yoshida was astoundingly efficient, and minowa left the ring looking like he suffered brain damage in his fight.

against a lackluster crocop, i just wouldnt bet this fight. but this is crocops chance. crocop knows that he will never hold the belt while fedor is there, but he can damned well win the gp if he faces barnett in the finals.

the only place silva is going to be safe is shooting for takedowns and clinching. crocop is going to bust the sh!t of silvas legs until his shoot is gimpy, then go for the lhk or a good liver kick.

or he will pull a babalu and flip out and try to just stand and trade, which will put this fight squarely in the judges laps, aka silva's bread and butter.

hopefully not tho, my money feels safe on him.

re nog v barnett, im picking nog. nog can outbox him standing, and even if barnett takes him down, nog can score points on the ground with what is probably the most active and dangerous guard in mma. i cant imagine this not going to a decision, and its really easy for me to imagine nog winning it.

[swope]

btw, ive decided to hedge my bets on crocop & nog and stack up on arona.

[gusmahler]

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btw, ive decided to hedge my bets on crocop & nog and stack up on arona.

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Shogun would be a good bet, though I would assume he's a pretty heavy favorite.

[swope]

shoguns odds are going to (probably) be in the -600 range. arona i suspect will open at around -200, maybe even lower considering the weight overeem has been fighting lately, and of course his mauling of sergei.

neither of those factors will help him after he runs out of gas after 4 minutes again. arona gives the most savage ass whippings in mma when his opponent is hurt (arona v sak), and overeem is physically incapable of being a threat to anyone after the fourth minute of any fight, ever.

[Tuds75]

What do you think about Sergei Kharitonov vs. Aleksander Emelianenko?
(This is the reserve bout for the OWGP finals).

I makes the FIELD prop look pretty good to win this tournament. I could see either Wandy or Crocop both being pretty beaten up after their semifinal fight. Since both love to throw. They would have some serious damage around their eyes with could force them to bow out.

I like Aleksander over Sergi. I just too worried about Sergi's shoulder after that brutal beating and dislocation he suffered against Overeem. I see Aleksander being quicker to the punch then Sergi. This will be standup war similar to Wandy/Crocop.

I also lover Arona. I think is very under-rated because he doesn't have a flashy style, but he gets the job done. Don't forget that Arona beat Silva who is a better striker then Overeem. If we can get Arona at -200 that is a pure gift from the betting Gods.



Tuds

[swope]

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What do you think about Sergei Kharitonov vs. Aleksander Emelianenko?
(This is the reserve bout for the OWGP finals).


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im sitting this one out. this is one of those fights where i have to pick whose set of shortcomings are going to impact their performance most. aleks did NOT live up to expectations against barnett. his gas tank is more than questionable, and the fact that he didnt have it sorted out against barnett makes me question if its capable of being sorted out at all.

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I makes the FIELD prop look pretty good to win this tournament.


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i stacked up on the field at +300 when i thought fedor was going to heal up in time to participate, i doubt im going to cash in off it tho.

reason being; cc v wand is going to be a striking game and granted someone might get hurt, but i dont like the odds of either barnett or nog getting damaged enough to impact their performance in the finals. who would replace cc or wand who could really perform against either nog or barnett after they do their 15 minutes of manhugging?

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I also lover Arona. I think is very under-rated because he doesn't have a flashy style, but he gets the job done.

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arona is doomed for two reasons; he refuses to admit that pride isnt ADCC, and he is BTT. BTT is cursed with regards to Pride (queue Bustamante highlight), and no one is going to give him a belt based on points. he can take down wand 10 times a round for 3 straight rounds, he can scramble to side mount every time. in his mind, his job is done, while in dse judges mind, hes squandering opportunities to finish or do damage, and that doesnt fly with them.

that said, i consider arona the p4p best talent in dse next to fedor.

[Tuds75]

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i stacked up on the field at +300 when i thought fedor was going to heal up in time to participate, i doubt im going to cash in off it tho.

reason being; cc v wand is going to be a striking game and granted someone might get hurt, but i dont like the odds of either barnett or nog getting damaged enough to impact their performance in the finals. who would replace cc or wand who could really perform against either nog or barnett after they do their 15 minutes of manhugging?

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I also lover Arona. I think is very under-rated because he doesn't have a flashy style, but he gets the job done.

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Think about this, Sergi vs. Aleksander could last only a couple of minutes with either guy scoring a KO, while it is almost a gimme that Barnett/Nog will go the full 20 minutes. So now either Sergi or Aleksander will have fought for only a couple of minutes while either Barnett or Nog will have gone a full 20 minutes at a pressing pace. You tell me fatigue will not play a huge factor in helping either Sergi or Aleksander.

And for Arona, that fact that he competes with BTT is DEFINATLEY NOT a hinder to him. He takes Overeem down and controls him on the ground the entire fight. He just needs to stay away from an Overeem Knee or his famous gulitone choke and Arona should be ok.

Tuds

[swope]

i agree, there is almost no way arona loses this fight, simply because overeem isnt going to last long enough for the judges to steal it from him, haha.

i hear you regarding alex & sergei, but nog never really gassed the two times he went to decisions with fedor.. barnett could be in trouble if he faces a fresh aleks, but thats almost the only situation i can see where the field has a chance.