Mansion Question from Novice

Willy · #1 08-28-2006, 10:24 AM

First, I saw there is already a thread on Mansion but it does not answer my questions. If you have no interest in answering what to many of will be stupid questions from a novice, stop here and move on to the next thread. For those who continue, I apologize for the length of this post. If I knew what I was talking about I probably could have made it shorter.
Second, While I have no interest and even less knowledge in sports, the offer i received from Mansion intrigued me as I could not see how I could lose. It looks like a heads I win, tails we tie proposition.
My questions are as follows:
1.) If I bet $1100 with Mansion on Pittsburgh and win they pay me $1000. I assume I also get my $1100 back for a profit of $1000.If I lose, they refund my entire $1100 bet.
It seems my only risk is default by Mansion, a risk I am willing to take if this can possibly be true. Is the foregoing correct?
2.) If the above is correct The only way I could see how Mansion could do this is to make the bet so unfavorable as to make it very unlikely that I win and they will simply return my money and have (they hope) a new sports betting customer. Is this correct?
3.)If I am very unlikely to win the bet, I have noticed a discussion of hedging in the other thread. I assume this to mean taking a bet at anther site for the team playing Pittsburgh ( not disclosed in the email) and if I win I get $1000 from them and my money back from Mansion. This didn't make much sense to me as Mansion has to recognize that this just creates new customers for their competitors. While if I bet it at all I am inclined to just take the Pittsburgh bet and hope to win I am intrigued by the hedging possibility.

Thanks to any who take the time to read this and reply and may you have good luck during the football season.

kevin017 · #2 08-28-2006, 10:42 AM

1)Risks of taking this bet:
-You might screw up and do something incorrectly.
-There is a slim chance Mansion might run with your money.

2)Liklihood of pittsburgh covering this spread:
Pretty good. Who knows how good, but definitely in the ballpark of 50%. It is not at all unlikely that they will cover. If i understand it correctly, Mansion will be hedging this bet themselves, and will lose approximately the same amount of money whether pittsburgh wins or loses, however I don't know if that's correct or not, that's just my guess from what i've heard other people talk about.

3)This promotion will do nothing but create business for Mansion, and this business will be with players who can cough up 1100 for a bet. Mansion probably realizes a fair number of players will hedge, but look at all the threads on 2p2 and other sites, what are they about? Mansion, not what site to hedge on, those sites are afterthoughts.

Lastly, hedging is a good idea if you really need the 400+ bucks. If you'd rather let that amount slide for a pretty good chance at 1000, it makes sense EV wise, that is unless you really think miami's gonna win it.

Levarkin · #3 08-28-2006, 10:49 AM

1) You got it.

2) No, it's not correct that the Steelers side of this bet is "very unlikely". Many other books are offering this same game, and while most have the Steelers at -4.5 and not -5, the difference there is not too substantial. 50% is probably close.

3) The team playing Pittsburgh is Miami, so yes, hedging would involve betting on Miami at a different sportsbook. You can bet any amount that you choose on Miami, if you choose, and most hedgers would select a bet size that would leave them with roughly the same amount of profit if Pittsburgh wins or loses. That's the point of hedging: it's risk-free. Sure, there is some action driven to other books as a result of this promotion, but not as much as there is driven to Mansion.

As you can see in the discussion in the other thread, while some are a little suspicious that this is too good to be true, as you are, most accept that this is an expensive but effective means by which Mansion is attracting players to its site, and are confident that Mansion will follow through.

ImNew · #4 08-28-2006, 12:16 PM

If you gonna hedge, make sure you have a bonus at the other site to clear. (hedging is good for bonus chasing)

AmonRaa · #5 08-28-2006, 01:32 PM

Another Q from a newbie:

I placed a bet at Mansion for -5 and Pinnacle +5 (Miami). At the time I though i cant loose, but in fact I can if Pitt wins by exactly 5. Grrrr. Since I havent watched a single game of NFL ever, what are the chances this happens?

Levarkin · #6 08-28-2006, 01:41 PM

If Pit wins by five, you don't lose, you just don't win. Both your Mansion and Pinny bets will be a push, and you'll get your money back. 5 is a very unusual margin of victory in football, so I wouldn't worry too much about it.

brendanb438 · #7 08-28-2006, 02:19 PM

Chance of Pitt winning by exactly 5 points is around 2%.

-Brendan

Willy · #8 08-28-2006, 04:26 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Lastly, hedging is a good idea if you really need the 400+ bucks. If you'd rather let that amount slide for a pretty good chance at 1000, it makes sense EV wise, that is unless you really think Miami's gonna win it.

[/ QUOTE ]
OK thanks a lot for all the help I mean thanks to you all. But, now, I guess I just do not really understand this hedging thing.Your post makes it sound like I could lock up about $400.00. I thought if I hedge I bet $1100 for $1000 on the other team and if they win I collect and get my money back from Mansion. However if Pittsburgh wins I lose my $1000 on the other team (New Orleans I think someone said) and win my $1000 from Mansion for a loss of $100. If that's the case it would seem the only way to lose would be to hedge. I think if the Pittsburgh bet is fair I would just bet on Pittsburgh anyway and win a $1000 or break even.
Willy
PS this whole sports betting thing is fascinating by the way.
Also I see from your post that the other team is Miami. I really have no clue who might win and really do not care one way or another until I bet. I would guess that is a good thing (no emotion about the teams) for a sports bettor.

Performify · #9 08-28-2006, 05:07 PM

[ QUOTE ]
But, now, I guess I just do not really understand this hedging thing.Your post makes it sound like I could lock up about $400.00. I thought if I hedge I bet $1100 for $1000 on the other team and if they win I collect and get my money back from Mansion. However if Pittsburgh wins I lose my $1000 on the other team (New Orleans I think someone said) and win my $1000 from Mansion for a loss of $100. If that's the case it would seem the only way to lose would be to hedge. I think if the Pittsburgh bet is fair I would just bet on Pittsburgh anyway and win a $1000 or break even.

[/ QUOTE ]

well, remember you don't really have $1100 risked on Mansion to win $1000 on Pitt.
you have $0 risked on Mansion to win $1000, since they'll give you your money back if you lose.
Put another way, your only possible outcomes are either +1000 or +0.

So you can go to another site and bet the opposite side of the game for about half of that. Say, $550 to win $500. Then you have the following two outcomes:

Pitt wins: +1000 from Mansion, -550 from other site. +450 total

Pitt Loses: $0 from Mansion (refunding your money), +$500 from other site. +500 total

Willy · #10 08-28-2006, 05:17 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
But, now, I guess I just do not really understand this hedging thing.Your post makes it sound like I could lock up about $400.00. I thought if I hedge I bet $1100 for $1000 on the other team and if they win I collect and get my money back from Mansion. However if Pittsburgh wins I lose my $1000 on the other team (New Orleans I think someone said) and win my $1000 from Mansion for a loss of $100. If that's the case it would seem the only way to lose would be to hedge. I think if the Pittsburgh bet is fair I would just bet on Pittsburgh anyway and win a $1000 or break even.

[/ QUOTE ]

well, remember you don't really have $1100 risked on Mansion to win $1000 on Pitt.
you have $0 risked on Mansion to win $1000, since they'll give you your money back if you lose.
Put another way, your only possible outcomes are either +1000 or +0.

So you can go to another site and bet the opposite side of the game for about half of that. Say, $550 to win $500. Then you have the following two outcomes:

Pitt wins: +1000 from Mansion, -550 from other site. +450 total

Pitt Loses: $0 from Mansion (refunding your money), +$500 from other site. +500 total

[/ QUOTE ]
Hey thanks. For some reason I got hung thinking hedging was the same bet on both sides and that did not make sense