AQo in BB. Call down overcards vs 2 tight-typical?

MN_Mime · #1 08-28-2006, 05:41 AM

UTG+1 is 19 VPIP/ 4 PFR/ 1.6 AF
MP1 is 20 VPIP/ 5 PFR / 1.7 AF

Poker Room skin
Limit Holdem Ring game
Limit: $0.50/$1
10 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (10 players) HERO is BB with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
UTG folds, UTG+1 raises, UTG+2 folds, MP1 calls (3.5:2), 5 folds, HERO calls (5.5:1).

I put MP1 on a middle pair or something KQish, probably suited given UTG's standards. PF call weak or standard?

Flop: 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (6.5SB, 3 players)
HERO checks, UTG+1 bets, MP1 calls (7.5:1), HERO raises, UTG+1 3-bets, MP1 calls (12.5:2), HERO calls (14.5:1).

MP1's call encouraged me to hand around. I narrowed his range to a flush draw and thus a high card hand I dominated. I tried to represent a monster since I felt confident MP1 wouldn't play back with 2 aggressors.

Turn: 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (7.75BB, 3 players)
HERO checks, UTG+1 bets, MP1 calls (8.75:1), HERO calls (9.75:1).

River: A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (10.75BB, 3 players)
HERO...?

jakbse · #2 08-28-2006, 05:54 AM

I think you go over aggro on the flop, just call here. When you don't improve on the turn it is time to fold. As played I c/c the river if it's still one bet when it comes back to me.

Ampelmann · #3 08-28-2006, 06:06 AM

Preflop looks good. I wouldn't 3-bet since UTG1's raising standards seem pretty tight (how big is the sample size?). AQ is behind a 4% raising range.

Flop look very much like spewing. Your raise won't fold anyone here since they already put money in. Even a peel is thin I think. You should call the 3-bet, however, for your overs and BDFD.

I have no idea why you call the turn.

River I bet/call.

Edited for a typo.

knockonwood · #4 08-28-2006, 07:08 AM

I c/c the flop, fold the turn.

Since you stuck around for the river, I call this getting 10.75-1.

gostros · #5 08-28-2006, 07:11 AM

As played, I think I would bet-fold the river to a UTG+1 raise. If that ace doesn't slow him down, he has us beat. If MP1 is the raisor, on the other hand, I think we call as he could likely be raising with a lower kicker.

As for the play on the flop...
I would definitely not raise this. Why are you more afraid of MP1 playing back than you are of UTG+1 playing back? The latter seams highly likely, given his stats and previous play on the hand. Also, for those odds, MP1 is probobly not going anywhere given the range of hands you put him on. You aren't setting up a bluff on a later street, so why "try to represent a monster" when you are almost certainly going to showdown on this hand?

JerBear77 · #6 08-28-2006, 08:12 AM

Preflop Ok.

Flop is a call, too much FPS here.
Turn we are done when we receive no help.

Your probably against 2 pair or better when the river hits.

kerowo · #7 08-28-2006, 08:18 AM

Flop is spew. You didn't 3-bet pre-flop so pretending you have a monster on the flop doesn't make much sense, especially since you don't cap and then you check the turn. Turn call is only good if you think your outs are clean and I'm not thinking they are so I'm probably done there. Bet/call the river unless MP1 wakes up and it's 2 back to you.

Watkins · #8 08-28-2006, 08:37 AM

** grunch **

Ok, this is my first post and it will probably highlight my inexperience but;

For 1 bet I'll call the p/f/r and the MP1 cold call but I want to see a nice flop.

Post-flop although the flop is unlikely to have improved anyone, given the action so far I don't really like where I am, I may raise to see where I stand & possibly to try for a free card but I would be ready to drop on the turn UI. I definately don't like the UTG+1 3-bet here. Also, I'm not sure how much information the raise gives you, UTG+1 may see this as an attempt to buy a free card (given the 2-flush) or as a steal attempt by the BB given the flop co-ordination, that said he seems to like his hand.

On the turn I think I would drop, you've lost the BDFD which leaves you with (best case) 6 outs and discounting a little for possible holdings, AK, AQ, AA, KK, QQ & removing the Qd (this leaves you with 3-4 outs at most) and no odds to call.

As for the river this is one of the cards you were waiting for and possibly one of the cards your opponent(s) were dreading? Given the action so far I don't think UTG+1 is on AK which is my worry, so I would bet out thinking he is unlikely to bet into this scare card? There is also the option to check hoping that UTG+1 bets (putting you both on the flush draw) this may get a call from MP and will allow you to call gaining 2 bets if MP calls and avoiding the loss of 2 bets in the event of AK.

Anyway, I'd be interested to know what you all think am I way off? Am I missing something obvious?

**edit**

Sorry missed the fact that you check-raised the flop so forget all the free-card rubbish. Given that you're first to act I would probably c/c the flop looking to see whether I could hit one of 6 possible outs on the turn.

In your situation, given that your oppoenent is willing to 3-bet into the check-raise I'd put him on a high pair - AA, KK & QQ all reduce your outs significantly, only JJ, TT leave you with 6 outs. So that coupled with MP's possible holdings would see me fold the the turn.

jrz1972 · #9 08-28-2006, 09:00 AM

Preflop: Fine. I will often 3-bet this, but not against this guy.

Flop: WTF? c/c.

Turn: Fold.

River: Bet. UTG+1 is not going to bet his underpair into two opponents. Neither is MP1.

Ampelmann · #10 08-28-2006, 09:03 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Post-flop although the flop is unlikely to have improved anyone, given the action so far I don't really like where I am, I may raise to see where I stand

[/ QUOTE ]
Raising mainly for information is -EV. Mainly b/c the information is unreliable. Here, though, we can be almost 100% sure that we're behind.

[ QUOTE ]
possibly to try for a free card

[/ QUOTE ]
To make free card play profitable, you need a profitable draw in the first place. This is questionable here. In addition, a backdoor draw is not the time for free card play. And, even more importantly, you need position. So, no free card play here.

The only argument one can make to raise the flop is the hope to drive AK and AQ out. This isn't enough for me in this still rather small pot.

[ QUOTE ]
There is also the option to check hoping that UTG+1 bets (putting you both on the flush draw) this may get a call from MP and will allow you to call gaining 2 bets if MP calls and avoiding the loss of 2 bets in the event of AK.

[/ QUOTE ]
I think not betting the river has 2 problems.

(1) No one bets. In this case we usually win but lose value.

(2) UTG1 bets and MP2 raises. We prolly have to fold here, but may be folding the winner sometimes (when MP2 has like AJ).

So I like b/c (with a better read maybe b/f) better than c/c.

[ QUOTE ]
Anyway, I'd be interested to know what you all think am I way off? Am I missing something obvious?

[/ QUOTE ]
Think again about free card play.