10/25 NL: KK when an ace flops, did I blow this hand

[PokerForMath]

Hero (3900): Ks Kh
vs BB (3295): ? ?


Pre-flop:

UTG+1 folds. Hero raises to $85.
SB folds. BB re-raises to $265.
Hero re-raises to $910. BB calls.

Flop (board: 7c 4h As):

sonofred checks. Hero checks.

Turn (board: 7c 4h As 7h):

BB goes all-in for $2410.

What to do? The BB was a somewhat loose caller, so Made the pre-flop extra large to define his hand. My assessment was that based on his pre-flop call he had AK, AA, QQ, with AA a little less likely because he had the opportunity to move in. When the flop came ace high I did not see the check as weak, given the player (am I wrong?), when he moved in on the turn I thought it was either an idiotic bluff b/c the board paired or he had AA and figured I would call him down with KK.

Thoughts on the hand and my line appreciated.

[ArturiusX]

I think you should fold. If you wanted the pot, bet the flop.

[PokerForMath]

I agree with your turn assessment, but the chances seem skewed toward him having an ace and calling the flop and then I lose more. My worry is that by checking the flop I more or less give away the fact that I do not have an ace and so he makes a powerplay on the turn. But the overbet in my experience often means a strong hand.

[durrrr]

if hes pretty good call, if hes pretty bad fold. If hes really bad call, and if hes really good dont play him hu b/c u dont know what to do here.

[Raised2Win]

some good players here with hands like TT-QQ might do this move. If I was here with JJ, I would be extremely tempted to do this aswell, only hand that I would be worried about would be AA. And Im talking about me beeing villain.

Against good players, bet the flop. Against weak bad players check.

[samoleus]

PokerforMath, while this is certainly a challenging decision for you, it is WAY too player dependent for anyone to give good advice.

Some things you can think about when answering:

- how often will you check back the flop if you have AA (and does your opponent do that)

- how often will your opponent call a third bet with AK or weaker ace?

- how aggressive is he and likely to use your purported weakness to blow you off the hand?

I do like your line of checking behind on the flop, but it forces you to make a tough decision. And the decision has to be based on your knowledge of your opponent and vice-versa.

[AZK]

[ QUOTE ]
if hes pretty good call, if hes pretty bad fold. If hes really bad call, and if hes really good dont play him hu b/c u dont know what to do here.

[/ QUOTE ]

this is [censored] awesome.

[PokerForMath]

saomleus,

I agree, very player dependent, was looking for the variance of opinions, how often people would do this. What makes the question interesting from my point of view is that even though we don't know much about the player we know I defined my hand, so your advice and many of the others were helpful to me. In this particular case, I had not played with this player and unless he changed his name, I don't think he had played with me. So my hand was very well defined, almost certainly AA or KK. That does mean that if he is really good, he knows it's twice as likely I have KK than AA with the A on the board, so he has the opportunity to make his move with TT-QQ.

All that said, I lean toward his having the ace. I am going to contradict myself, but he cannot rule out my re-raise with AK and with the flop I could easily have checked an ace behind, so moving in in my view signals real strength.

[PokerForMath]

I totally agree! Don't know if he was joking, but it's a good synposis:

- if he is pretty good, at least 50% of the time he is making a move that can't beat KK

- if he is pretty bad, he is overeager and would only make that move with the nuts

- if he is really bad he could have anything and so I have to call because odds are he doesn't have an ace and didn't call pre-flop with A6o

- I love that last advice! I have lost more money HU to players I should not have been in the ring with I don't even want to say.

[Lucky]

What Durrr said is gold.

As far as good player, I dont think he calls pf with AQ. With AK, he moves in or folds. So from him, you're probably looking at AA-JJ. 12 combos of QQ/JJ, one combo of KK, and 3 AA. So that makes flop check and turn call good against better player imo.

Against bad player, a bit tougher. There's 1800 in pot with 2400 eff left. A bet of 1000 on flop is not horrible to make decisions easier, but I assume checking flop and making decision on turn is optimal, just a tough decision to make.