LC: Would you think this guy is a winning player?

[chaz64]

I'm certainly no expert, but in playing a $27 with this guy recently I had noticed some plays he made that were perhaps questionable:

Here he is UTG. Is this not a push or fold pre-flop situation?

PokerStars Tournament, Big Blind is t200 (7 handed) Converter on pregopoker.com

UTG (t2410)
UTG+1 (t1940)
MP1 (t1625)
CO (t2540)
Button (t2070)
SB (t1585)
Hero (t1330)

Preflop: Hero is in BB with 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
<font color="red">UTG raises to t1200</font>, <font color="gray">UTG+1 folds</font>, <font color="gray">MP1 folds</font>, <font color="gray">CO folds</font>, <font color="red">Button raises to t2070 (All-in)</font>, <font color="gray">SB folds</font>, <font color="gray">Hero folds</font>, UTG calls t870

Flop: (t4440) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)


Turn: (t4440) 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)


River: (t4440) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)


Results in gray below:
<font color="#f7f7f7">UTG has Tc, Ad (a pair of Sevens)</font>
<font color="#f7f7f7">Button has Kh, As (two pair, Kings and Sevens)</font>

Next hand he calls my push with one of the worst hands possible. Is this correct given how small his stack is now, and the pot odds he is getting? Would you call with any two in this situation? I guess maybe I would, but I was still shocked to see his hand, maybe I should not have been.

PokerStars Tournament, Big Blind is t200 (7 handed) Converter on pregopoker.com

UTG (t1940)
UTG+1 (t1625)
MP1 (t2540)
CO (t4440)
Button (t1485)
Hero (t1130)
BB (t340)

Preflop: Hero is in SB with T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
<font color="gray">UTG folds</font>, <font color="gray">UTG+1 folds</font>, <font color="gray">MP1 folds</font>, <font color="gray">CO folds</font>, Button calls t200, <font color="red">Hero raises to t1130 (All-in)</font>, BB calls t140 (All-in), <font color="gray">Button folds</font>

Flop: (t1770) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)


Turn: (t1770) 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)


River: (t1770) 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)


Results in gray below:
<font color="#f7f7f7">Hero has Ts, Kh (high card King)</font>
<font color="#f7f7f7">BB has 3d, 2h (a pair of Threes)</font>

Here he calls another push from me, with less than a great hand:

PokerStars Tournament, Big Blind is t200 with t25 antes (5 handed) Converter on pregopoker.com

UTG (t2075)
CO (t3940)
Button (t1310)
Hero (t1705)
BB (t4470)

Preflop: Hero is in SB with Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
<font color="gray">UTG folds</font>, <font color="gray">CO folds</font>, <font color="gray">Button folds</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to t1680 (All-in)</font>, BB calls t1480

Flop: (t3585) 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)


Turn: (t3585) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)


River: (t3585) 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)


Results in gray below:
<font color="#f7f7f7">Hero has Qc, 4s (a pair of Queens)</font>
<font color="#f7f7f7">BB has 9s, Ts (high card Queen)</font>

I was surprised to find at Sharkscope that this guy has played 1600 SNGs, average stake $29, 9% ROI. From these plays would you expect this? Would you play these hands this way, or can variance bring about a winning record over this large a sample size?

Just curious what some of you guys would think.

[zabt]

1st hand he effectively pushed from UTG with ATo, probably not much of an EV error, if it is an error (I think it probably is).

2nd hand seems routine.

3rd hand is probably an error, but I'm not so sure that I would want to back that up without checking SNGPT. If he has a read that you are pushing a lot, it's probably close.

[BHokie1]

First hand is just strange - no idea what is going on there.

2nd hand you have to call any two cards here - and you see why.

3rd hand if he believes you are pushing 100% here, put it in SNGPT and you'll see it's a +EV call.

[oyvindgee]

1. I fold, but the raise/push is only a small error.

2. WTF dude, of course he calls. He has more than half his stack in the blind.

3. Mistake. He should fold.

[UMTerp]

First hand he's probably of the camp that his raise looked stronger than a push, and he was fully intending to get all his chips in on the flop no matter what came. Plus he'd give his opponent a second chance to fold should he be flat-called. Against the right opponents, I think this is fine.

Second hand is standard.

Third is close, and depends on his reads.

None of the three are egregiously bad, and while these hands in a vacuum aren't enough to tell if he's a winning player or not, I certainly wouldn't say they eliminate him from contention.

Edit - now that I look at his stack size in the first hand, it does appear bad. Winning players make mistakes too though.

[Lego05]

[ QUOTE ]
1. I fold, but the raise/push is only a small error.

2. WTF dude, of course he calls. He has more than half his stack in the blind.

3. Mistake. He should fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

[citanul]

sigh, locked.

citanul

[ymu]

First hand is weird but I've seen it a few times - never understand it. Perhaps telling other short stacks that they're playing for all their chips, but leaving something behind if a bigger stack pushes over him. It's possible that he's aiming directly at your BB and stack size. Still doesn't make sense though - a biggish but standard raise would do the same job with these stack sizes. Perhaps he just got tired hauling the slider all that way and gave up ...

Second hand, you have to make this call - two live cards don't do so badly, and he gets a chance to nearly triple up against only one opponent (as it's likely that the button will fold - from the way button played this, I'm guessing he was near certain that button would fold). If he waits to push from the SB and gets lucky he might still only have less than 2BB to work with.

Third hand depends on my mood and the SB. I'm not too badly off if I lose the showdown, and I've sent the chips to my right, which is the best place for me to win them back. I'd usually call this, knowing that I'm probably not much worse than 60/40 and occasionally a favourite. It's also helpful to let SB know that he's getting called with less than premium hands so that he doesn't try this with junk too often. I prefer walks. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[zabt]

How did this get stickied?

[Vasquez]

[ QUOTE ]
sigh, locked.

citanul

[/ QUOTE ]

You mean stickied? lol

Vasquez