Another Mansion free bet

[briton]

I just got the following email. This one seems way to good to be true!

Dear Member,

Simply visit the MANSION Sportsbook and place a minimum Point Spread (Handicap)
bet of USD 1,100 (or currency equivalent) to win USD 1,000 on the Pittsburgh Steelers
for their game on Thursday 7 Sept 2006. If your bet is not a winner, MANSION will
refund your losses of USD 1,100 (or currency equivalent) within 3 working days of the
result.

This deal is too good to miss. There’s no better way to kick off the NFL season and
no better place than at MANSION

Don’t miss out

The MANSION Team.

[dankhank]

[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] mansion

slots win

[Ortho]

wow.

[sublime]

mansion really is the best sportsbook/exchange on the planet.

[MicroBob]

as i said in the internet-bonuses forum, "OMGGGGGGGGGGG!!!!!!!!!!"


This offer is just freaking ridiculous.

[ImsaKidd]

[ QUOTE ]
mansion really is the best sportsbook/exchange on the planet.

[/ QUOTE ]

No kidding.

Is anyone gonna hedge this? Any calcs on the -EV you're gonna take?

[Levarkin]

I'm hedging. I'd love to pop the most +EV play, but I really like the Dolphins side here, and I would hate to lose out on free money because I lost a bet I didn't want to take to begin with.

[brendanb438]

I will be hedging this with Pinny. They have the Dolphins at +5 -118. Anyone have the excel spreedsheet for figuring these out? I have an arb spreadsheet but I couldnt figure one out for freebets. PM if you could email this to me.

Thanks,
Brendan

[Levarkin]

If you assign any decent chance to Miami covering here (i.e. between 55% and 60%) then there's no EV to lose by hedging, as my calcs are coming out. I don't do this kind of arb work often, but if the Miami bet itself is +EV, how can one go wrong to hedge?

[brendanb438]

affiliate offer advertising not allowed. -P