Bike Lock

[IRUNTHIS21]

I don't know how I remembered this the other day but anyways when I was a kid I solved my friends Bike Lock just by turning the numbers at random and it opened. The lock had 4 rows with 0-9 on each row. I was wondering what the odd's of me getting it correct were? Thanks

[Montezuma21]

if you pull slightly on the chain and turn the numbers on the average combination bike lock, the numbers will align themselves into the correct combination. you turn in onto the correct one and it'll be harder to turn in onto the next (incorrect) number. if you take these kinds of locks and just rotate the numbers at random whilst exerting a slight pull on the chain, it's not unusual to get 2 correct.

If the numbers were 0-9, then the odds of you doing that on the first try are 10'000-1.

[Shroomy]

How many times did you spin it?

[IRUNTHIS21]

just mixed the numbers up and it opened

[SamIAm]

You're asking what are the chances of randomly picking the 1 correct number out of 10,000 possible numbers?

Golly, I dunno. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
-Sam

[PairTheBoard]

[ QUOTE ]
if you pull slightly on the chain and turn the numbers on the average combination bike lock, the numbers will align themselves into the correct combination. you turn in onto the correct one and it'll be harder to turn in onto the next (incorrect) number. if you take these kinds of locks and just rotate the numbers at random whilst exerting a slight pull on the chain, it's not unusual to get 2 correct.

If the numbers were 0-9, then the odds of you doing that on the first try are 10'000-1.

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually, the "odds" would be 9,999-1

PairTheBoard

[shmigheghi]

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[ QUOTE ]
if you pull slightly on the chain and turn the numbers on the average combination bike lock, the numbers will align themselves into the correct combination. you turn in onto the correct one and it'll be harder to turn in onto the next (incorrect) number. if you take these kinds of locks and just rotate the numbers at random whilst exerting a slight pull on the chain, it's not unusual to get 2 correct.

If the numbers were 0-9, then the odds of you doing that on the first try are 10'000-1.

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually, the "odds" would be 9,999-1

PairTheBoard

[/ QUOTE ]

The combo could be 0000 too.

[SamIAm]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
if you pull slightly on the chain and turn the numbers on the average combination bike lock, the numbers will align themselves into the correct combination. you turn in onto the correct one and it'll be harder to turn in onto the next (incorrect) number. if you take these kinds of locks and just rotate the numbers at random whilst exerting a slight pull on the chain, it's not unusual to get 2 correct.

If the numbers were 0-9, then the odds of you doing that on the first try are 10'000-1.

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually, the "odds" would be 9,999-1

PairTheBoard

[/ QUOTE ]

The combo could be 0000 too.

[/ QUOTE ]
I think he was making some nitty semantic point about <total #>-<good #> instead of <bad #>-<good #>.

Boy, what a great thread this is. We should make this the Probability sticky. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
-Sam

[Zag]

[ QUOTE ]
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[ QUOTE ]
if you pull slightly on the chain and turn the numbers on the average combination bike lock, the numbers will align themselves into the correct combination. you turn in onto the correct one and it'll be harder to turn in onto the next (incorrect) number. if you take these kinds of locks and just rotate the numbers at random whilst exerting a slight pull on the chain, it's not unusual to get 2 correct.

If the numbers were 0-9, then the odds of you doing that on the first try are 10'000-1.

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually, the "odds" would be 9,999-1

PairTheBoard

[/ QUOTE ]

The combo could be 0000 too.

[/ QUOTE ]
I think he was making some nitty semantic point about <total #>-<good #> instead of <bad #>-<good #>.

Boy, what a great thread this is. We should make this the Probability sticky. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
-Sam

[/ QUOTE ]
Well, yes, he's being picky. But he is correct. In the range of 9999-to-1 it doesn't make any differnce. But when people get confused between odds and chances in the 2-to-1 or 3-to-1 range, it can make a huge difference.

For the record: The odds are 9999-to-1, which means the chances of it happening is 1/10,000.

Poker players talk about odds because it is easier to compare your bet to the pot to the outs you have. Suppose I have 9 outs on the turn (which means 37 non-out cards), my odds are 37-to-9. If I have to call an all-in bet of $9, I would only do that if the pot, including the $9 I am calling, contains more than $37. (Not, however, including my $9 if I call.)

My CHANCES of improving to winner are 9/46 (i.e. exactly the same as saying my odds are 37-to-9). If I call the $9, then my pot equity is 9/46 of the total amount after my call. If my call made the pot exactly $46, then my pot equity is 9/46 x $46 = $9.

Same result, just a different way of arriving at it. The problems come, though, if you confuse the two approaches.

[ImBen]

PhD quality work being done here.