20/180 Correct to push here? Or standard reraise?

Quadz · #1 08-24-2006, 04:19 PM

No read on Button here, could be stealing, is it correct to go allin here?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t50 (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

MP2 (t2725)
MP3 (t3445)
CO (t2225)
Button (t3700)
SB (t3510)
Hero (t1145)
UTG (t4545)
UTG+1 (t4005)
MP1 (t490)

Preflop: Hero is BB with T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
6 folds, Button raises to t150, 1 fold, Hero raises to t1145

TakenItEasy · #2 08-24-2006, 04:27 PM

Marginal with no read. I would just call since it's a hand that likes to see a flop.

Dunkman · #3 08-24-2006, 04:31 PM

I don't like it...risk/reward seems way out of line. With an M of 16 I'm sure a better spot than this will come along.

seke2 · #4 08-24-2006, 04:40 PM

I think it's allright, good spot for a resteal and hand that plays reasonably well when you're called occasionally. It's not bad, by any means. Risk/reward is not out of line. It's probably largely EV neutral against most reasonable calling ranges. If Villain is super-loose, it becomes -EV, so doing it readless might be a bad idea...but as long as you figure to have ~35% equity when he calls, its gonna be a reasonable move.

TakenItEasy · #5 08-24-2006, 04:58 PM

Oh yeah. As for your original question. A standard reraise pot commits you so a push is better.

But again if he has not shown a tendency to steal, than I prefer a call.

Mr. Id · #6 08-24-2006, 05:20 PM

you're in no rush to get your chips in, you have plenty of M for the time being, the blinds are as far away from you as possible, and you have position (an advantage you obviously lose if you push), so call and see what materializes on the flop. But even then, you need to hit at least a flush or str8 draw, you have a weak kicker w/ the T if a K hits.

At this stage, I think I even like folding better than pushing w/ no reads on villain.

ryanj9352 · #7 08-25-2006, 02:30 AM

I really don't like pushing here...for what? t150 chips? I supposed it's not terrible, were the blinds going to increase fairly soon? I'd rather play a unopened pot and you are likely behind here unless the raiser is super loose. What hands are you beating? Qx? I think you are at best 50/50, more likely 60/40 if not way behind. Although chances are good he folds. I'd still fold this hand...

Dynamic · #8 08-25-2006, 04:00 AM

I either let the hand go or just flat call. The pot isnt very big and you have over 20 BB. Also you will only get called by a hand that has you completely dominated.

AceLuby · #9 08-25-2006, 10:34 AM

[ QUOTE ]
you're in no rush to get your chips in, you have plenty of M for the time being, the blinds are as far away from you as possible, and you have position (an advantage you obviously lose if you push), so call and see what materializes on the flop. But even then, you need to hit at least a flush or str8 draw, you have a weak kicker w/ the T if a K hits.

At this stage, I think I even like folding better than pushing w/ no reads on villain.

[/ QUOTE ]

uhhh, we're in the BB and pushing negates positional disadvantage. A call isn't terrible, but more often than not we're going to lose the pot post flop w/ just a call. If button has tried this before I would like the push better.

seke2 · #10 08-25-2006, 10:52 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I really don't like pushing here...for what? t150 chips? I supposed it's not terrible, were the blinds going to increase fairly soon? I'd rather play a unopened pot and you are likely behind here unless the raiser is super loose. What hands are you beating? Qx? I think you are at best 50/50, more likely 60/40 if not way behind. Although chances are good he folds. I'd still fold this hand...

[/ QUOTE ]

Sigh. Let's do math.

Let's say button is opening top 20% here. I guess that would be about average for a button open range.
66+,A4s+,K8s+,Q9s+,J9s+,T9s,A9o+,KTo+,QTo+,JTo

Now, when we push, let's assume Button calls that push with the top 5% of hands or so.
77+,AJs+,AQo+

Obviously we're just guesstimating, but there's some ranges I'd consider reasonable.

So 75% of the time, when Button opens for 150, he has a hand that he'd fold to your push.

25% of the time, he'll call, and KTs has about 33.5% equity against 88+, AJs+, AQo+.

75% Villain folds, Hero ends up with 1320

25% Villain calls
33.5% Hero ends up with 2315
66.5% Hero busto

(.75 * 1320) + (.25 * (.335 * 2315)) = 990 + 193.88 = 1183.9

EV of Hero's stack after pushing = 1183.9
Hero's stack if he folds = 1095

Pushing isn't bad.

You might be able to construct a case for calling that is better than pushing here, but I doubt it. Flat-calling with KTs makes it a lot easier for you to lose a big pot than win a big one.