#1
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Sets / 100 ?
Im curious how often we flop a set assuming we see the flop with every pocket pair.
We get each pair 1 time out of every 220 hands. So thats 14 pairs every 220 hands. We are 7.5-1 against flopping a set. So we should flop a set roughly every 110-120 hands right? Im a math nooblet so correct me if Im wrong. .9 Sets / 100 ? |
#2
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Re: Sets / 100 ?
For starters, there's 13 possible pairs, not 14. Anyhow, the probability that you are dealt any random pair is 3/51 (first card doesn't matter, but for second card you need one of the three remaining matching cards out of 51).
The probability that you will NOT flop a set (given that you have a PP) is (48/50)*(47/49)*(46/48)=2162/2450, and thus the probability that you WILL flop a set is 1-2162/2450=288/2450. Thus, the total probability that you will flop a set is (3/51)*(288/2450)=864/124950=0.00691477 which is approximately .7 sets/100. (I think this should be mathematically correct, but in case I made some stupid mistake, please correct me.) |
#3
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Re: Sets / 100 ?
It's 8.3 to 1 for hitting a set.
A random PP is 16 to 1. |
#4
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Re: Sets / 100 ?
Ok thanks guys, cleared things up.
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#5
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Re: Sets / 100 ?
<font color="gray">It's 8.3 to 1 for hitting a set.</font>
That's just wrong. I'm not sure what you did, but it's actually more like 7.506-1. I'm getting .692 sets/100 with my gorilla math. |
#6
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Re: Sets / 100 ?
[ QUOTE ]
For starters, there's 13 possible pairs, not 14. Anyhow, the probability that you are dealt any random pair is 3/51 (first card doesn't matter, but for second card you need one of the three remaining matching cards out of 51). The probability that you will NOT flop a set (given that you have a PP) is (48/50)*(47/49)*(46/48)=2162/2450, and thus the probability that you WILL flop a set is 1-2162/2450=288/2450. Thus, the total probability that you will flop a set is (3/51)*(288/2450)=864/124950=0.00691477 which is approximately .7 sets/100. (I think this should be mathematically correct, but in case I made some stupid mistake, please correct me.) [/ QUOTE ] This is a great first post. Welcome to the forum. -Sam |
#7
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Re: Sets / 100 ?
You two are talking about two different things. The odds of hitting exactly a set are 8.28 to 1, the odds of hitting a set or better, including a boat and four of a kind are 7.51 to 1.
Cobra |
#8
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Re: Sets / 100 ?
[ QUOTE ]
You two are talking about two different things. The odds of hitting exactly a set are 8.28 to 1, the odds of hitting a set or better, including a boat and four of a kind are 7.51 to 1. Cobra [/ QUOTE ] |
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