Calculating odds on the turn

[Gazzbut]

This is a post from Medium Stakes.

"30-60 on Party.

Say you have top pair, bad kicker and get popped on turn. In deciding whether to call down, should you go ahead and plan to call 2 bets. (i.e. 6.5 bbets in pot + 1 bbet coming on river so you are getting 3.75 to 1) or just analyze the turn and river separately? (i.e. 6.5 to 1 on turn and then 7.5 to 1 on river)

I think I vote for the former. Thoughts? "

OP was told this was too trivial to post in Medium Stakes and that he should post it here. I think he was offended and didnt bother! I was just curious what you guys make of his question.

[Paxosmotic]

Calculating the odds for a calldown means you plan to call 2 bets. If it was called too trivial in medium stakes, it was probably because the answer is pretty obvious. You can't call the turn if you don't plan to call an unimproved river, so you adjust your odds accordingly.

[Octopus]

[ QUOTE ]
Calculating the odds for a calldown means you plan to call 2 bets. If it was called too trivial in medium stakes, it was probably because the answer is pretty obvious. You can't call the turn if you don't plan to call an unimproved river, so you adjust your odds accordingly.

[/ QUOTE ]

However.....

if there is some possibility that your opponent will check the river, you should include that in your calculations. This could be a free card play by a worse kicker or even a worse pair. If he is the type to try that sort of thing, you may only have to pay 1.75BB (or something) on average.

[Gazzbut]

So what odds would you be looking for to call down against an unknown in this spot?

[BenA]

[ QUOTE ]
So what odds would you be looking for to call down against an unknown in this spot?

[/ QUOTE ]

This is pretty dependent on board texture and your chances of improving. Let's just make up a hypothetical:

You are dealt A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] in BB.

UTG+2 limps, MP1 limps, CO limps, all fold, you check.

Flop: A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]4 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4.5 BB)

You decide to bet out, UTG+2 folds, MP1 calls, CO calls.

Turn 6 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3.5 BB)

You bet again, CO raises....

You are getting 6.5:1 on an immediate call. There is one BD flush draw now, and 2 improbable straight draws. If you are outkicked, you have 3 outs of improving. If you are behind to a lower 2 pair, you have 8 outs. If a set, you are dead. If AT or A6, you are dead. So basically your chances or improving if behind are neglible. So if you call, its pretty much to a showdown unless your opponent will often check the river. So its really 7.5:2, or 3.75:1. You need to feel your chances are at least 22% of being ahead aginst stuff like JTh or A7 for this to be correct. Hard to say against an unknown. I think your question would be much better if you included a couple of hands?

[Gazzbut]

How about the original hand? These hands come up all the time where you hold a reasonable hand and get popped on the turn by an unknown. I find analysing these situations to be fairly tricky.

I normally look at it that you need to be getting around 9/1 immediate odds on the turn if you have TPTK facing a c/r. This means you will see a showdown UI. I will lower this depending on the player obviously.

[BenA]

[ QUOTE ]
How about the original hand?

[/ QUOTE ]

Sorry, I didn't know there was an original hand. I made up that one based on the 'top pair, bad kicker gets popped on the turn' using the same odds you gave. Should I have looked in medium stakes for an actual hand? You admit these situations are tricky, and its precisely because there is no one answer for every situation.

[Gazzbut]

[ QUOTE ]
Sorry, I didn't know there was an original hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

my bad. Not enough coffe yet this morning!


[ QUOTE ]
You admit these situations are tricky, and its precisely because there is no one answer for every situation.

[/ QUOTE ]

Obviously. However I was just wondering what general rules of thumb people use, what kind of minimum odds they are looking for etc before starting to factor in the situational specific info.

[BenA]

[ QUOTE ]
However I was just wondering what general rules of thumb people use, what kind of minimum odds they are looking for etc before starting to factor in the situational specific info.

[/ QUOTE ]

I guess what I've been trying to say is that rules of thumb are generally ineffective in these types of situations. On non-drawy boards against unknown opponents in situations where its very difficult to improve (like the hand I made up), the pot needs to be juicy enough to make it worthwhile. In the hand I fabricated, 3.75:1 is probably not enough, but you do have a 9 kicker. Change it to a 2, its an easy fold. These situations are infinitely better if you have reads like 1) opponent constantly bluff-raises 2) opponent checks the river often 3) opponents hand ranges are huge, etc.

Situational specific info is the FIRST thing you should be thinking about. Obviously if the pot is stupidly small, you can just toss it, but I don't think it is a good idea to look for odds first, THEN consider the board texture and the situation. They all work together. Pot size and situation are intrinsically connected. If the pot is just stupidly small, toss it. If the pot is huge, call down. Everywhere in the middle is incredibly situation specific. Again, if you post a specific hand, it will be easier to discuss. I think this topic is a really good one, so I'd love to see a discussion about exact situations and what people would do.

[Gazzbut]

Im going to be away in Ireland for the next few days but when I get back I should be able to pick some good examples from my DB which will obviously include reads as well.