Have I lost my edge? Am I becoming a losing player?

[Felipe]

I went on a cruise last week and played a few times at the hold'em table they had there. Their casino wasn't very big, but large enough, considering that we were on a moving ship. They only had one poker table since the it earned less revenue for the casino per hour/per square foot of space. Slots earned more per hour and they could fit several into the same area as 10 players plus a poker table.

The game was $3/$6 limit hold'em. 95% of the players were super loose passive. Raising preflop with only JJ+. One of the luckiest guys at the table was winning huge hands with the worst of it, raising in MP with "junk" like A9o, 56s .... etc. One lady saw everyhand to showdown! She never bet unless she had pair of Aces, K or Q kicker. Another gentleman check-raised with king-high on an ace high board with three of a suit on it. Some of the hands could go to showdown, with 6 players to the flop, without a single bet, call, or raise. Six players to the flop was the table's average! Needless to say this table was very ripe and very juicey. So I sat down with $100.

I lost the $100 after nearly 4 hours of play. I played my A+ game, straight from the sklansky,miller,malmuth collection of poker books. Never [rarely] bluffing, betting or raising for value with good draws and "made" hands, and manipulating my opponents to give me free turn and river cards.

My first day I lost $100. I thought it was mostly just suckouts from my opponents pairing their kicker (Axo) against my AKo, or against my QT with two Tens on board and pairing their kicker (Q8 for example, hitting 8 on da river)

On the second day, I played for 9 hours straight. I won one big pot, and a few small ones. My cards were running bad. My AA raked in a very decent pot. Many of my other hands just kept getting sucked out on (This is not a bad-beat post). I lost another $100.

I really wish I hand hand histories to review and see if there were spots were I made stupid mistakes. Or a good poker buddy there to catch me if i went astray or tilted. Maybe it wasn't my fault at all. Maybe those sorts of things happen to even the greatest limit players.

This post is about whether or not I'm losing my game. I know I am a winning low-limit player. I know that this table was juicey loose/passive with tons of players check/calling and sometimes 10 players seeing the flop. I know that many of the hands I had were favourites to win but lost instead. But i began to question my skills. I began to doubt "their" mistakes and "my" skills and knowledge of the game. My loss began to eat at me! Is 34BB a significant loss at two sessions (12 hours total)? Am I becoming a losing player? Thank you.

[SeaEagle]

So you're asking if you can tell your true value as a poker player from a few hundred hands?

Hopefully this won't offend you, but if you have to ask that question in the first place, it's highly unlikely that you were a winning player to begin with.

[xadrez]

I pimp out crack whores in uptown manhattan. PM for a job application if you are really down on your luck. Good $$ making opportunity.

In all seriousness, I wouldnt take a couple small losing sessions too seriously as an indicator of your skill. With the entire table of drunk callers calling to the river youre bound to have some swings and suckouts. Looks like you just left the ship before you had the opportunity to rake in a couple huge pots. Consider yourself lucky, you could of easily lost a lot more than 34 BB. Have confidence and take a break if you need to to reassess your game and plug leaks, etc etc etc.

[wray]

yes you suck. please don't whine about it here.

[mjkidd]

You might not have had an edge in the first place.

[Harv72b]

Dude, I drop 100 BBs in a session every couple months or so. It happens. If it didn't happen, all those horrible players would give the game up.

[W. Deranged]

I lost 400 BB in 6 days once. It happens.

The thing you really NEED to take away from this discussion are the concepts of variance and sample size.

Poker is a game of very high variance outcomes, particularly limit hold'em. Even situations where we are getting much the best of it, we are often going to lose money in an absolute sense a very high percentage of the time (think about all those times where you had a monster but were really only 60% to win against three opponents).

Our long-term profits come from playing the very long-term. Like tens or even hundreds of thousands of hands. It is not inconceivable that you could play every day for a month or two or even more and lose, even though you're a winner. Online multitablers will occassionally encounter losing weeks and play more hands than you might play in 2 months of live play.

[-brew-]

Man you do suck. Just kidding. These guys can be brutal, but the fact of the matter is that it sucks to lose and you are just bummin' cuz u are relatively sure that you played well.

Variance will rear it's ugly head whether you are at sea or on land.

Take a breather, step back, think about the hands you lost and what went on there. I find it difficult to believe that you played perfectly, as you are (just a guess) only human and on vacation (unless they now make bots to post on Twoplustwo too).

Not to mention you were losing so I don't know if you were on tilt in a way that you just didn't recognize. Tilt is a nefarious creature and can be quite elusive. We all tilt differently. In the words of Bruce Lee "Be water my friend" Systems are not rigid, they are guides. It sounds like you had a great read on the table but maybe you were not working within your read.

Good luck.

[jeffseib]

On a super loose table you will need a relatively good hand to show down at the end. When it is 7 or 8 to the flop, there are a boatload of outs against you. Even on the most disconnected, weird flop, you will find players making two pair or a twisted straight draw. Plus these players don't know a fig about odds and call with two outers all the way to the river. If 8 players have two outs against you, eventhough the chance of them winning is really small, that is still 16 outs against you winning with the best hand on the flop!

This is sometimes call 'implicit collusion'. TPTK is often a dog on these tables! Most pots are won with two pair and better.

These sweetheart tables can be a real heartbreaker when your cards don't connect strongly.

[KurtSF]

[ QUOTE ]
I know I am a winning low-limit player. I know that this table was juicey loose/passive with tons of players check/calling and sometimes 10 players seeing the flop. I know that many of the hands I had were favourites to win but lost instead. But i began to question my skills. I began to doubt "their" mistakes and "my" skills and knowledge of the game. My loss began to eat at me! Is 34BB a significant loss at two sessions (12 hours total)? Am I becoming a losing player? Thank you.

[/ QUOTE ]

grunch

If you are a winning low-limit player you should know that a 30BB downswing is niether tragic, nor uncommon, even at a table full of uberfish.

You're fine. Chill out, pull out some more cash, and short of tilt don't stop playing at that table.